CIBC Chief Economist - Oil @ $100 By Late 2008, OPEC/Russia/Mexico Exports Down 2.5 Mbd By End 2010

[hatrack]

CORK, IRELAND, Sept. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - Oil prices are likely to hit US$100 a barrel by the end of next year as soaring rates of domestic oil consumption in the world's leading oil producing nations cuts into their export capacity, forecasts the chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

Speaking at the 6th Annual Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas conference in Cork, Ireland, CIBC World Markets chief economist, Jeff Rubin told delegates that the export capacity of OPEC, Russia and Mexico will drop by 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. "Domestic demand growth of as much as five per cent per year in key oil producing countries is already beginning to cannibalize exports and will increasingly do so in the future as production plateaus or declines in many of these countries," says Mr. Rubin. "OPEC members together with independent producers Russia and Mexico consume over 12 million barrels per day, surpassing Western Europe to become the second largest oil market in the world.

"At current rates of domestic consumption the future export capacity of OPEC, Russia and Mexico must be increasingly called into question. These trends are likely to result in a sharp escalation in world oil prices over the next few years." He noted that while he expects today's US$80 barrel of oil will reach as high as US$100 a barrel by the end of 2008, consumers in many major oil producing countries pay nothing near the global price for crude. He finds that highly subsidized gasoline prices are often a significant factor in surging rates of domestic oil consumption. In many countries prices are as little as US$10 a barrel.

With exports from OPEC, Russia and Mexico expected to decline by seven per cent over the next three years, markets will seek greater reliance on higher cost unconventional deposits. He expects that Canadian oil sands will surpass deep water wells as the single largest source of new oil exports by decade end.

EDIT

http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Saudi%20Arabia/217034

[GliderGuider]

1. Jeff Rubin gets it.

His conclusions endorse the results of the "Export Land Model" of westexas and Khebab at The Oil Drum. We're going to see a major erosion of oil and gas exports over the next three years, resulting in an escalating pressure on Canada to destroy our environment so Americans can keep driving SUVs to Wal-Mart.

[phantom power]

2. speaking of that....

how does it feel to live next to a heavily armed junky, who's getting a bit desperate for a fix, and who's also been flirting with some kind of unholy hybrid of fascism and fundamentalist rapturism?

[GliderGuider]

3. I was dealing with it fine until just a moment ago...

Seriously, my partner and I made an agreement in the middle of *'s first term that we would not set foot on, nor wing over, American soil until you guys did something about your little "rule of law" problem. We've stuck to our principles for over four years now.

We are friends with Maher Arar and his wife Monia Mazigh, as well as the wife of Mohamed Harkat who has been detained in Canada on a Security Certificate since 2002. These experiences make us reluctant to expose ourselves to American jurisdiction in any way, shape or form.

[phantom power]

4. Um. Sorry about the delay. And total lack of progress.

and the backsliding, in fact....

:banghead:

[bananas]

5. Goldman Sachs: $95

http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/09/17/goldman-calls-for-95-oil/

September 17, 2007, 4:53 pm
Goldman Calls for $95 Oil
Posted by Mark Gongloff

Goldman Sachs, which in 2005 famously suggested crude oil could spike to $105 a barrel before demand destruction kicked in, on Sunday raised its target for Nymex crude-oil prices for year-end 2007 and 2008, saying crude could end that two-year run as high as $95.

Goldman projected oil would end this year at $85 a barrel (it’s not far from that today, having set a new intraday record of nearly $81) and would end next year at $95. Goldman analysts warn oil could spike above $90 this year and expect it to average $85 next year. That’s right, average $85.

Goldman’s thesis is that oil is in a “cyclical” bull market caused by tight supply and OPEC production cuts, at the same time it’s in a longer-term, “structural” bull market caused by inadequate production capacity — a “bull-bull” market, or double-bull market, which is sort of like being on double-secret probation, only with fewer togas.

The analysts go on to say that high prices and a slowing U.S. economy could hurt demand for a time next year, but that supply constraints will likely gain the upper hand and drive prices higher again. “It is important to emphasize that the current market deficit is being driven more by supply shortages than by excess demand, which is why upside price risks are so high despite significant economic growth concerns,” they write.

[kestrel91316]

6. So does this mean that if Peak Oil doesn't save us from Global Warming,

maybe Peak Coal will?

We really need to stop buying all that Chinese crap and stop thinking we need so frigging much STUFF.

[GliderGuider]

7. According to the energy consumption model I work from:

Factoring in Peak Oil, Peak Gas and the expanded use (and eventual peak) of coal, we will burn about the same amount of carbon as we do today, every year for the next 40 years. We currently add 1.5 ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere annually. If you assume business as usual (as far as CO2 is concerned anyway), you end up with another 60 ppmv, for a total of 440 ppmv. There's some sign that the rate is accelerating, though. At 2.0 ppmv/year we'd end up at 460 ppmv.

Peak Oil and Peak Coal aren't going to save us.