Climate risks to global agriculture are underestimated

[gulfcoastliberal]

Vulnerability of global agricultural to climate change may be underestimated by experts, warns a trio of papers published in week’s issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The research says that "progressive changes predicted to stem from 1- to 5-degree C temperature rises in coming decades fail to account for seasonal extremes of heat, drought or rain, multiplier effects of spreading diseases or weeds, and other ecological upsets," according to a statement from Columbia University's Earth Institute.

"Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale. But there is a strong potential for negative surprises," said Francesco Tubiello, a physicist and agricultural expert at the NASA/Goddard Institute of Space Studies who coauthored all three papers.

The researchers say that current grain production—from which humans derive two-thirds of their protein—would need to double before 2100 in order to keep pace with demand from population growth, but that agricultural gains in temperate regions would not be enough to offset declining productivity in the tropics, due to higher temperatures and reduced precipitation. By some estimates, developing countries may lose 135 million hectares (334 million acres) of prime farm land in the next 50 years.

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"The projections show a smooth curve, but a smooth curve has never happened in human history," he said. "Things happen suddenly, and then you can't respond to them."
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/1203-agriculture.html

That sounds familiar... I'm starting to sense a pattern here...

[XemaSab]

1. K&R

[Nihil]

2. Great quote there:

> "The projections show a smooth curve, but a smooth curve has never
> happened in human history," he said. "Things happen suddenly, and
> then you can't respond to them."

Needs to be printed out in 24pt bold and mailed to every sitting politician
on the planet.

[The2ndWheel]

3. Plus agriculture is part of the problem

Whether you're talking top soil, expansion, water, changing habitats, control of the DNA of other species for the narrow desires/wants/needs of a single species, greater ownership of human life by corporations and governments which control the food, etc.

[GliderGuider]

4. This is where the convergence will bite

Climate change, peak oil and natural gas, and rising third world populations are going to collide within the next 15 years to restrict the global food supply. Africa and South Asia will be hardest hit, as they are the regions with highest population growth.

One other complicating factor may be food/biofuel competition that reduces the amount of surplus grain the developed world has available for food aid.

Who's that at the door? Why as I live and breathe, it appears to be the ghost of little Tommy Malthus, come to join the feast...

[progressoid]

5. "negative surprises"

Yep - except it won't be a surprise to many of us.