Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring

[GliderGuider]

Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring

The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50 years, according to one of the world's leading agricultural researchers.

Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute, warned in an interview with the Guardian.

The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States and Europe to transform the global food situation.

Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tonnes of food aid - a severe blow to the pride of a country that had been trying to wean itself off international assistance. Bangladeshi officials say the price of cooking oil - of which it imports 1.2m tonnes a year - has almost tripled in the past two years because it is now valued as an alternative to diesel oil. More worryingly, their main staple of rice is hard to buy at any price because India, Vietnam and Ukraine have cut exports.

Added to this are the pressures caused by global warming, which have been blamed for the droughts that damaged crops in Australia this year.

And at the bottom of the article:

The forces pushing up food prices

1 Rising consumption: The appetite of fast-growing nations, such as China, is rising as economic booms cause a surge in demand for meat and dairy products

2 Competition from biofuels: The cars of the rich are now rivalling the bellies of the poor for corn, cane and edible oils

3 Climate change: Global warming is putting pressure on water needed to irrigate crops

Anyone for a rousing chorus of "Faster Than Expected"?

[villager]

1. and the inputs for the industrial production of meat (4 lbs grain = 1 lb protein)

--not to mention the fresh water waste -- will have to be "on the table" much sooner, rather than later...

[pscot]

2. And the refrain

"No-one could have predicted this". Just when things were going so well.

[hogwyld]

3. One of two possible outcomes

1. Either the rich give up their cars or..
2. The poor people starve.

I am sincerely hoping for scenario 1.

[GliderGuider]

5. I've frankly given up all hope for your first outcome

The 2.5 billion people in the overdeveloped world will not voluntarily rein in our consumption enough to matter. Even in the face of scarcity we will reduce our consumption only enough to keep it within our budgets. In general, we will continue to spend our entire personal budgets on consumption. We will not, with rare personal exceptions, agree to voluntarily impoverish ourselves. To compound our resistance, we will be convinced by vested interests that there is no need to do so, and will be given all kinds of seductive reasons why the situation is simply not our fault.

The residents of the underdeveloped world - 4 billion today and 6+ billion by 2050 - will pay the price of our self-interest, short-sightedness, concupiscence and greed. I fully expect that many hundreds of millions of the world's poor will starve to death in the coming few decades. It will mainly be our fault. Our punishment may well be surviving to realize that fact.

I don't believe there is any way around this outcome.

[hogwyld]

6. I can almost visualize the commercials already

asking for charitable outreach. Unfortunately, everyone's budget is going to be consumed by higher energy and food costs. What's the world going to do when all of these poor, third world farmers perish, and global food production crashes? I forsee a grim, reinforcing cycle of famine and death. But I guess the world's better off nations will rejoice at the reduced demand for natural resources, and the return to cheap oil, only to begin the cycle over again...

[The2ndWheel]

4. Pasta, tortillas, and onions

"Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India"

The 21st century version of the Wizard of Oz.

Phyiscal reality catching up to us is going to suck. We threw the evolution of the planet over millions of years out of whack. We were part of that evolution for a time, and then we figured it was best for us to control it. This is the business we've chosen.