Wegener Institute Projects Near 100% Probability Of 2008 Arctic Ice Extent Beating 2nd-Lowest Record

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ScienceDaily (July 9, 2008) — The ice cover in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer 2008 will lie, with almost 100 per cent probability, below that of the year 2005 -- the year with the second lowest sea ice extent ever measured. Chances of an equally low value as in the extreme conditions of the year 2007 lie around eight per cent. Climate scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association come to this conclusion in a recent model calculation.

They participate with their prognosis in an international scientific contest, in which some of the most renowned institutes on climate research want to fathom out possibilities for seasonal predictions on Arctic sea ice cover by means of different methods and climate models. "After the strong decrease of the Arctic ice during the last summer, climate scientists all around the world are constantly asked: how will the ice develop in the next years?" describes Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Gerdes from the Alfred Wegener Institute his motivation. "To answer this question, we did not want to guess, but to rely on sound calculations."

The scientists' problem: scenarios of the long-term development of sea ice clearly indicate a decreased ice cover - exact prognoses for the following summer, however, are not yet possible. This is mainly due to the fact that the short-term development of sea ice depends strongly on the actual atmospheric conditions, namely the weather and in particular wind, cloud cover and air temperatures.

Because the exact atmospheric conditions which determine the weather patterns in the Arctic Ocean during the coming months are not predictable, Rüdiger Gerdes and his team have entered atmospheric data of the last twenty years into an ocean sea ice model developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute.

EDIT

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080709113704.htm