Warming May Have Substantially Bigger Impact On Sierra Snowpack Than Previously Thought - CCT

[hatrack]

EDIT

Scientists have known for some time that the loss of reflective snow and ice would warm the ground and increase snowmelt, and other models have predicted spring runoff a month earlier than historical averages. But this latest research points to a doubling of that effect. "It sends a message that what we see from the (global climate models) may be underestimating this kind of impact," said climatologist Gregg Garfin.

Diffenbaugh and others arrived at their conclusions by using detailed topographical information to help the computers more accurately predict when and where snow would melt. Some of the previous global models, for example, incorrectly had Santa Cruz and Lake Tahoe at the same elevation, Diffenbaugh said.

Diffenbaugh said the model's results matched up accurately with recent history in the West, especially in the Sierra and some of the West's other mountain ranges. Garfin, a University of Arizona climatologist, said that because the study only predicts what will happen by the end of the century, the model could lead to an exaggerated result. Still, it confirms previous studies that predict earlier snowmelt.

"It looks like the better the models get, it turns out the more conservative we were. That's bad," said Peter Gleick, executive director of the Pacific Institute, an Oakland research group, and an expert on climate change and water.

EDIT/END

http://www.contracostatimes.com/news/ci_9902465

[XemaSab]

1. "The better the models get, the more conservative we were."

Who could have expected that?

[phantom power]

2. "That's bad."

Yes it is, Peter. Yes it is.

[hatrack]

3. "In other news, the Amazon nuclear power plant melts down. Environmentalists call it a disaster!"

"But don't they always?"

[kestrel91316]

5. "No one could haave anticipated this." - not in light of this:

[niyad]

4. some models had santa cruz and lake tahoe at the same elevation???? nobody noticed this little

error????

[hogwyld]

6. Ahhh, what's a few thousand feet

amongst friends?

[eppur_se_muova]

7. Is "bigger than expected" now the new "faster than expected"? nt

[Nihil]

8. Guess which of the three terms is least likely to be used:

1) "bigger than expected"

2) "faster than expected"

3) "better than expected"

This is like fractal torture: every time you iterate to include more
accurate data and examine the results, they are worse.

:-(