Peak Oil: Prominent Peaker Tells Allies to (Temporarily) Pipe Down

[GliderGuider]

Peak Oil: Prominent Peaker Tells Allies to (Temporarily) Pipe Down

Should the deans of the peak-oil movement give the world a break and shelve their dire warnings of impending supply shortages?

So urges Robert Hirsch, one of the true eminences of the peakist crowd. Hirsch penned a seminal 2005 report for the Energy Department called “Peaking of World Oil Production” that warned of stark consequences as world oil supplies tighten, slamming the world economy. He has since lectured widely on the topic.

But with the world economy now under seige for quite different reasons, Hirsch is urging his cohorts to tone down their bleakness for a while so as not to worsen the damage.

In a memo “To The Peak Oil Community,” Hirsch recommends that the group “minimize its effort to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply.”

His rationale is itself plenty grim. “If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable,” he wrote to his colleagues.

Hirsch sent his memo to a Who’s Who of the peak movement, including retired petroleum geologist Colin Campbell; investment banker Matt Simmons; Swedish peak-oil scholar Kjell Aleklett; and Steve Andrews, director of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil.

But his appeal, sent Thursday, doesn’t seem to be winning much support.

Colour me unimpressed. If we're going to fix problems we need to know what they are. Peak oil is inextricably entwined with the current crisis, and is going to make recovery impossible if we don't address its influence. So with all due respect, Dr. Hirsch, I think I'll keep talking.

[mike_c]

1. if the "added trauma" of anticipating it is "unthinkable..."

...how much worse will experiencing the combination of deep recession and declining energy supply be? NOT talking about it seems pretty dumb.

[ben_meyers]

2. Not to worry, there's more where that came from

and the rightpeople are now in place to save us.

Arctic-Seabed Oil Claims May Quicken Under New Senate

By Hugo Miller

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic party gains in the U.S. Senate may speed approval of a maritime treaty that allows signatories to stake claims to Arctic seabed containing oil and gas deposits.

With President-elect Barack Obama supporting ratification of the Law of the Sea and Democrats unseating seven Republican senators in this month's elections, the U.S. moved a step closer to joining 157 nations including Russia that have endorsed the treaty, political analysts including the Century Foundation's Jeff Laurenti said.

The Senate, which must ratify any international treaty, ``is where the roadblock has been in the last couple of years when even President Bush was repeatedly expressing strong support'' for ratification, Laurenti, foreign policy program director at the New York-based policy-research group, said in an interview yesterday.

A rush to explore the Arctic was triggered by the region's melting ice. That has opened more access to areas holding about 22 percent of the world's untapped oil and natural gas, including deposits off Alaska, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates. Russia, a signatory in 1997, already has used the treaty's legal authority to assert its rights to mineral riches on its continental shelf in the Arctic.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=axGnGj6oDSqY&refer=home

[hunter]

7. It seems less and less likely this expensive oil will ever be developed.

We're taking the twisty roller coaster ride of wild price swings and demand destruction rather than the balistic path.

The most expensive sorts of oil development are already behind us and there's no way back.

[ben_meyers]

9. That oil and gas is sitting there

just waiting to be tapped. The only holdup was those pesky ice caps and glaciers. Now that President Obama and a Democratic congress will be on the job "Happy Days Are Here Again"!

[ramapo]

3. The masses don't believe in Peak Oil

Now that gasoline is south of $2.00 a gallon, the masses think the run up was just a scam to separate them from their money while enriching ExxonMobil. I don't personally know anybody who sees peak oil as a real concern. Fortunately we now have a President-elect who is aware that this is a real problem, no matter what the price of oil happens to be this month.

[Possumpoint]

4. I For One

Think it is a real problem and will make the problems at the big three Auto Companies that much more difficult to correct. Forecasts are for a 9% in crude production assuming no constraints in 2009.

[Nihil]

5. F*ck 'em.

Let the bastards starve and die.

Let them whine about losing their jobs rather than even considering
conservation.

Let them be surprised that voting in self-serving politicians only
helps said politicians, not the voters.

Let them watch their children starve rather than spending a few cents
on the dollar for efficiency.

Let them plod along in their insular ignorant world of media crap
rather than learn about the facts of life in the real world.

Let them pray to their fucking home-made gods then go extinct.

Let them do it soon.

[Strelnikov_]

8. No. 20 - The peak oil conspiracy

The 30 greatest conspiracy theories -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3483652/The-30-greatest-conspiracy-theories-part-2.html

20. The peak oil conspiracy

Peak oil (a theory in itself) is the supposed peak of oil production during and after which demand for oil outstrips supply sending prices through the roof. The peak oil conspiracy theorists believe that peak oil is a fraud concocted by the oil industries to increase prices amid concerns about future supplies. The oil industry is aware of vast reserves of untapped oil, but does not utilize them in order to maintain the illusion of scarcity, they claim.


I have no doubt that Obama is a peaker, based on various statements he has made over the years. Of course, W. Clinton and Gore are also peakers, as they have made overt statements to that effect.

[4dsc]

6. American's are only interested in short term solutions!

Its amazing how most American's think in the short term as the crash of oil will demonstrate.. I fully expect most people to start driving more now that oil and gas prices are down instead of continuing down the path of conservation..

[Delphinus]

10. What is he considering

"the unthinkable"? I don't see what he thinks it might be.

[BeFree]

11. Peaker here

But look at it this way:

If we have x number of gallons at y amount of consumption, then we have z time before peak

if we do 1/2 y then the length of time before we run totally out effectively doubles.

We have reduced y and will continue to reduce consumption.

All in all, the futures market DID use peak oil as a scare tactic to drive their speculation.

[hunter]

12. Rinse and repeat, all the way to the bottom...

No shooting star out with a bang oil economy, just the majors sucking out all the profit they can in repeated cycles of pump and dump.

A miserable :puke: ride for us all.