Guardian UK: Too Late? Why Scientists Say We Should Expect the Worst

[lutherj]

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2008/12/09

The graphs on the large screens behind Anderson's head at Exeter told a different story. Line after line, representing the fumes that belch from chimneys, exhausts and jet engines, that should have bent in a rapid curve towards the ground, were heading for the ceiling instead.

At 650ppm, the same fuzzy science says the world would face a catastrophic 4C average rise. And even that bleak future, Anderson said, could only be achieved if rich countries adopted "draconian emission reductions within a decade". Only an unprecedented "planned economic recession" might be enough. The current financial woes would not come close.

Anderson is not the only expert to voice concerns that current targets are hopelessly optimistic. Many scientists, politicians and campaigners privately admit that 2C is a lost cause. Ask for projections around the dinner table after a few bottles of wine and more vote for 650ppm than 450ppm as the more likely outcome.

Bob Watson, chief scientist at the Environment Department and a former head of the IPCC, warned this year that the world needed to prepare for a 4C rise, which would wipe out hundreds of species, bring extreme food and water shortages in vulnerable countries and cause floods that would displace hundreds of millions of people. Warming would be much more severe towards the poles, which could accelerate melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

[anigbrowl]

1. OK, but could we just prepare next year? I've got an election coming up...

and I don't want to actually be the guy inform people about how much things suck, so I think we're OK with convening a study group and planning to get a modest reduction by 2050, which is far enough away that nobody cares or will even remember who I am by then.

[hatrack]

5. As long as it's a study group that involves all stakeholders, and will want only sound science . . .

I think you may be on to something!!

:rofl:

[Nihil]

14. Ouch ... that'll leave a mark ...

:yourock:

(Mind you, it would be funnier if it wasn't so damn true ... :cry: )

[closeupready]

2. I personally think the only hope we have left is an unanticipated natural cooling

cycle to counteract the effects of the carbon which has been released into the environment to date.

[RaleighNCDUer]

3. We could, of course, implement the judicious use of nuclear weapons.

That's how they solve ALL the 'end of the world' scenarios on the SciFi channel - unleash the nukes!

No matter what the problem, nukes will solve it.

[closeupready]

4. Brilliant!

By jove. :rofl:

[spin]

6. Nukes are the ultimate solution to all problems...

no matter what your problem is, it will seem insignificant after a nuclear war.

[Barrett808]

8. That's my trope: "Deus Ex Nukina"

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DeusExNukina

[spin]

9. Neat link. (n/t)

[Barrett808]

11. "TV Tropes will ruin your life."

Enjoy!

[lutherj]

10. Either nukes, or we better start manipulating a sh*tload of gravity fast.

[spin]

7. Rare 50 year Arctic Blast Sets Sights On Southern California....

"Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week, "said Martin. "With those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere. Our answer of the exact track will become more clear this week. All residents in the mountain communities should prepare this week for very cold, winter weather, with snow."
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/dec/08/rare-50-year-arctic-blast-sets-sights-on/

"This will be the coldest December since 2000 on average for the U.S. on a whole and it's going to be the coldest winter population-weighted since 2004-2005," said Joe Bastardi of Pennslyvania-based forecaster Accuweather.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Oil/idUSTRE4B45T120081205

Don't get me wrong...I don't like pollution and I feel that our dependency on fossil fuel will have a major impact on our environment.

But I did catch the phrase "conference on global warming" in the original article. All too often when someone holds a meeting on global warming in the winter the low temperatures set records.

Better to give up on "global warming" and call the phenomenon climate change.

[happyslug]

12. One of the results of Global Warming, will be colder winters.

Global warming is the result of to much Carbon in the Atmosphere, keeping sun rays and the heat the rays provide in the atmosphere. In Winter there is less daylight in the North (In the Southern Hemisphere, winter starts in June and the loss of Daylight is to the South, but I will use North to keep this discussion simple), so it get colder.

As you have less and less sunlight, as winter comes into season, the carbon has less sunlight to reflect back to the earth. Furthermore the Carbon has more time to reflect whatever heat produced by the sunlight does reaches the earth back to space. While the overall temperature will go up, even in the Arctic and Antarctic, in the winter months temperatures will approach what it does today, do to the lack of sunlight AND the increase reflection of light (and thus heat) back to the sunny areas of the planet from the Northern areas of the Planet. Given this overall lack of heat getting to the Arctic in winter, the Arctic will get as cold, if not colder then it does now. With the opening of the Arctic Ocean you will see winds drive this cold weather south during the deepest darkest of the year. Thus you will see a shorter but colder winter each year (November will be warmer then it has been, but December and January, both around the Winter Equinox will be colder). Each summer the Arctic will be even warmer, but expect short, cold winter till the Arctic no longer has any cold area from year to year (at that point it is expected that the winds will die down and the world will settle into a hot and dry phase).

[spin]

13. Which is why I like to call global warming climate change. (n/t)