Analyst warns of 'solar market (revenue) eclipse' in 2009

[jpak]

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=212501760

SAN FRANCISCO—Global revenue for photovoltaic (PV) panels is expected to plunge by 19 percent in 2009, following eight consecutive years of growth, as a massive oversupply puts pressure on pricing, according to a forecast by market research firm iSuppli Corp.

Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down from $15.9 billion in 2008, iSuppli said. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry, according to the firm.

The plunge in revenue will come despite an 9.6 percent rise in gigawatt (GW) installations of solar panels in 2009, growing to 4.2GW for the year, up from 3.8GW in 2008, iSuppli said. However, 11.1GW worth of panels will be produced in 2009, up 62 percent from 7.7GW in 2008, the firm said, meaning that supply will exceed demand by 168 percent.

With the gap between supply and demand rising to such a level, pricing and market revenue will drop in 2009, iSuppli said.

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[screembloodymurder]

1. Want to increase demand?

Lower the price.

[Vincardog]

2. Bingo got it in ONE

[pop goes the weasel]

3. prices need to come down

My daughter and son-in-law plan to start building in the next couple of years, and they'd love to install solar panels if they could afford them. But they are currently out of reach of their blue collar income. And I know the owner of a mobile home park who would like to install solar panels and get this property off the grid, to make it more attractive to renters, but he operates on a very narrow margin. He's even been putting in all-electric homes with the thought that the panels will soon be affordable. If the prices come down, there will be a growth in the market, as many people who have been wishing they could afford the upfront cost make the plunge.