Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending (ecological) regime shift in time to avert it

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/05/0811729106.abstract

Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

…

Abstract

Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts.

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[opihimoimoi]

1. I like this article....but...asx a matter of concern / observation: not too many out there

including Bush can read this and comprehend it....

Bush did not understand a simple warning re Osama and he gonna read this? Much less understand it? Don't think so...

[NJCher]

2. it's an academic abstract

As a teacher of expository writing, I tear my hair out when I read this kind of writing. Academicians themselves know they write poorly. It doesn't have to be this way.

Cher

[opihimoimoi]

3. Writing for the Masses should be required....Writing with Clarity 321.01

:toast:

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Well, "Writing for an audience" should be required

Typically what happens is that the "popular media" will take something like this, and massage it into something consumable by "the Masses" (although too frequently, they over-simplify things in the name of "clarity.")

In this case, the "audience" is the http://www.pnas.org/">National Academy of Sciences.


Here's a "popular media" treatment:

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/can-signs-from-nature-presage-ecological-disaster_100138905.html

Can signs from nature presage ecological disaster

January 6th, 2009 - 4:39 pm ICT by IANS

Washington, Jan 6 (IANS) Scientists taking a leaf out of the social sciences are trying to read signs from nature to know whether they presage potential collapse of ecosystems. The idea of using leading indicators in science is not new. Geologists use seismic indicators to try to predict earthquakes and physicians use measures of such things as cholesterol and blood pressure to try to predict patient health.

But applying the same tools and yardsticks to forecast the health of ecosystems and, ultimately, to prevent serious ecological harm is only now coming into play, said Stephen R. Carpenter, University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) professor of zoology and co-author of the new study.

The study, by two ecologists and an economist, suggests it may be possible to use nature’s leading indicators to avert environmental disaster.

Ecosystems worldwide, comprising lakes, ocean fisheries, coral reefs, forests, wetlands and rangelands, are under constant and escalating pressure from humans and many are on the brink of collapse, said Carpenter.

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[opihimoimoi]

5. Point well taken....:o)

:beer:

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Here's a University press release (obviously the source of the above article)

http://www.news.wisc.edu/16109

[opihimoimoi]

7. Thank you...well worth time and effort to read....adds to the overall scheme of things

[phantom power]

8. critical indicator:

[pscot]

9. We are already on the brink

of a planet-wide, man-made ecological catastrophe, and we appear to be incapable of mustering the faintest response despite increasingly urgent alarms by virtually the entire scientific community. Given our complete failure to respond to our present dilemma, speculation about how to deal with 'regime change' seems somewhat beside the point.