Detroit auto show reveals electric future

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=detroit-auto-show-reveals-electric-2009-01-14

60-Second Science Blog - January 14, 2009

Detroit auto show reveals electric future

By Hank Green

DETROIT-- The North American International Auto Show held this week was positively electric in an economically dark world in which buyers shun gas guzzlers and manufacturers struggle to go green as well as convince consumers to fork over tight funds. There was less talk of biofuels and almost no talk of hydrogen than in previous years, with the emphasis instead on quick environmental fixes that can be implemented within five years—if not immediately.

There were three real classes of environmental innovation on display here: traditional hybrids, extended-range electric vehicles, and pure electric vehicles. Every step represents another leap away from the internal combustion engine, a goal that wasn't even a goal a mere three years ago.

Hybrid vehicles—each representing a significant advance in the technology—made a strong showing, including the all-new Prius, the all-sleek Honda Insight, and the Ford Focus Hybrid. All of the hybrids rolled out here are expected to be available to consumers by the end of the year.

Ford says that its Fusion brings a higher mileage-per-gallon to a larger more luxurious car, getting at least five more miles per gallon of gas in the city than its Toyota rival, the Camry Hybrid. Toyota's new Prius offers updated styling, the highest mileage of any car on the road, and a slightly larger interior and faster engine than its predecessor.

…

[doc03]

1. My neighbor sells Toyotas, he says there is no longer a

waiting list for the Prius and in December sales were down 45% on them. What vehicles they are selling now are pickups and SUVs. If gas prices don't go over over $3.50 or $4.00 the American people will not buy a hybrid. People were blaming the the Big 3 for bad business decisions a couple months ago when in reality they were building what people wanted. I think unless we have a big incentive on the hybrids they will flop, we need a least a $3500 tax credit for them or they will not sell. We have to have a big enough tax credit to make up the average $3500 premium for the hybrid. If a big tax is put on gas it will be like touching the 3rd rail, it would be political suicide.

[kristopher]

2. One policy proposal by Gore

Is to tax the shit out of carbon and adjust the income tax around it. Lower income people would get a rebate of their carbon taxes, which would enable the larger purchases to be made (energy efficiency in the home and auto), and middle and higher income people would have income taxes offset by the amount paid in carbon taxes.

This is meant to be a central feature around which incentives and tax credits for purchases would be devised.

Also figure in the fact that prices are going to decline as more of the manufacturing support infrastructure is devoted to the parts needed for EVs, like batteries. There are some very large investments being made right now that will be seen in the form of reduced prices and much wider choice of autos.

Finally, this is a lull and all the policy planners know it. Demand will eventually resume and when it does the price of petroleum is going back up, even with no speculators involved.

[doc03]

3. That would be total political suicide and

the lower income people would be hurt the most. The low income people are the ones that are stuck driving the old gas guzzlers from years ago. It's complicated as hell i don't even understand it. Why not just give people a tax credit for buying a hybrid.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Because "the lower income people" can't afford to buy a hybrid (with or without a tax credit)

These "tax credits" are just great, but only for people who can afford the up-front investment.

[doc03]

5. Your carbon tax would drive electric costs

through the roof. My company would be totally shut down if they doubled the price of electric, we spend $2 million a week now. That would be 3000 jobs in an area that is already severely depressed.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. It's not my carbon tax

I was just explaining why "tax credits" don't work.

By a similar token, consider the health insurance "tax credit" proposed by the McCain campaign. If the poor had the money to purchase their own health insurance, McCain would have given them a "tax credit" to help defray the costs.