US/Canadian Arctic Survey Sounds Alarm On Recent Changes In Ice, Temperatures - "Highly Unusual"

[hatrack]

In case you're wondering, "highly unusual" is the scientific study equivalent of yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater . . .

A major U.S. government report on Arctic climate, prepared with input from eight Canadian scientists, has concluded that the recent rapid warming of polar temperatures and shrinking of multi-year Arctic sea ice are "highly unusual compared to events from previous thousands of years."

The findings, released on Friday, counter suggestions from some skeptics that such recent events as the opening of the Northwest Passage and collapse of ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic are predictable phenomena that could be explained as part of a natural climate cycle rather than being driven by elevated carbon emissions from human activity.

A summary of the report — described as "the first comprehensive analysis of the real data we have on past climate conditions in the Arctic," by U.S. Geological Survey director Mark Myers — warns that "sustained warming of at least a few degrees" is probably enough "to cause the nearly complete, eventual disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet, which would raise sea level by several metres." The study also sounds the alarm that "temperature change in the Arctic is happening at a greater rate than other places in the Northern Hemisphere, and this is expected to continue in the future. As a result, glacier and ice-sheet melting, sea-ice retreat, coastal erosion and sea level rise can be expected to continue."

EDIT

"The current rate of human-influenced Arctic warming is comparable to peak natural rates documented by reconstructions of past climates. However, some projections of future human-induced change exceed documented natural variability," the scientists conclude. "The past tells us that when thresholds in the climate system are crossed, climate change can be very large and very fast. We cannot rule out that human-induced climate change will trigger such events in the future."

EDIT/END

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technology/Arctic+warming+pattern+highly+unusual+Report/1186593/story.html

[Dogmudgeon]

1. The fluctuations also appear to be a lot bigger

One of the worries (so to speak) that I have is that there will be a 5-20 year episode of sudden cooling, and the "common wisdom" will pronounce climate change to be outre.

Just this winter, the arctic has experienced a fairly dramatic cold snap. The recent cold spells in central Europe and in eastern North America this week are part of that. It has set a hundred hack reporters making cheap "ironic" gags about global warming.

Of course, this isn't proof that warming is reversing itself; it's what we expect to see in an epoch of climate change. But the press has dumbed the scientific issue down to such a degree that a couple of cool or warm days are accepted a "proof" that those damn scientists are just trying to scare us so they can take our money and spend it on libbrul frivolities like test tubes and diodes.

--p!