Yes, "they've" thought about it a great deal. In short, generating capacity will probably need to be increased. Electricity prices will probably go up.
Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation
Stanton W. Hadley
Alexandra Tsvetkova
January 2008
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831
managed by
UT-BATTELLE, LLC
for the
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
under contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725
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5. Summary
In aggregate, the model predicts an increase in demand, generation, electricity prices, and emissions from the utilities created by the introduction of PHEVs. It also suggests that by 2030 almost all regions (10 out of 13) will need to add capacity to provide for charging PHEVs, mostly in the scenario where PHEVs are charged at 6 kW in the evenings. In all likelihood, to avoid these problems the utilities in the regions would expand their capacity, increase their imports, or establish demand response programs beyond the level that NEMS had calculated, but these factors were not modeled in the scenarios.
The specific results differ from region to region and are to varying extent sensitive to the alterations of the scenario considered. Some of the indicators are less sensitive to the charging rate, others to time of charging. Predicted changes in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council – Northwest Power Pool Area are all the same regardless of the analysis setting. Overall, increase in generation is least responsive to the set up, while price is the most sensitive. The changes in emissions levels do not follow any constant patterns; in some regions they are higher with night recharging, in some with evening recharging, depending on the predicted generation mix and capacity available to satisfy increased demand.
Electricity price is the most sensitive indicator estimated by the model. Depending on the scenario, price may increase by only 1.2% - 2.7% (in WECC – RMP/ANM) or, for evening recharging at 6 kW, by as much as 141% (in FRCC), 196% (in WECC-CA) and 297% (in SERC). In contrast to what was suggested by other research (Kinter-Meyer, Schneider and Pratt, 2007), the model predicts increases in electricity prices for almost all regions. The most likely explanation for this is the competitive electricity market assumption incorporated into the model. Increased demand, which has to be met by the capacity planned without consideration of possible effects of PHEVs, drives prices up. The only region that, under certain circumstances, may experience price drops is FRCC. If the hybrids’ owners prefer to recharge their vehicles at night and less powerful batteries are utilized for hybrid production (1.4 kW or 2 kW), this will exert downward pressure on prices, which may decrease by 3.2% and 2.2% respectively. This result is contingent on time of recharging. If the owners plug in their PHEVs earlier, electricity prices may increase by 41 to 141%.
The generation mix varies substantially from region to region, as well as regions’ means of satisfying the increased demand associated with PHEV market penetration. The majority of regions are likely to use their coal and gas technologies. Some of the regions may increase their oil based electricity generation (e.g., MAAC and NPCC – NY), which may diminish the positive effects of PHEVs. Other regions are expected to increase their renewable electricity generation as a response to the increased demand (e.g., WECC – NW). The evening charging scenario is more likely to increase oil-based generation, while later charging is more conductive to adding renewable generation. Coal plays a role mainly in the Midwest and South, and generally during night charging periods, as in the VACAR region described earlier. A few regions show renewables, mainly biomass, as a marginal fuel. New England has the largest amount, with power coming from wood-fired power plants. The NPCC/New York region shows a large component of oil-fired generation, despite oil representing less than 7% of generation in the region. There are a number of plants that can operate with either natural gas or residual fuel oil, and ORCED modeled them as running on oil because of the lower cost of fuel.
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