Long-Term Forecast For Washington State - Hotter, Drier, More Wheat, Fewer Salmon - P-I

[hatrack]

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Released early Wednesday, the study was ordered by the Legislature and carried out by 64 scientists, many affiliated with the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington. "This is the most detailed description of the effects of future climate change that we've ever had for any of the Northwest states," said Philip Mote, a report author and the outgoing Washington state climatologist.

On Thursday, the scientists plan to huddle with state officials to brief them on actions that can be taken to prepare for climate change and -- they hope -- blunt its worst effects. Many of the impacts outlined in the new report assume continued use of fuels whose emissions trap heat in the atmosphere. Those effects could at least theoretically be lessened through technological innovations or reduced fuel use.

The new study delves into some areas not researched thoroughly for Washington in the past: How a changing climate will affect agriculture, human health and the systems that carry away rainwater to prevent flooding. "There's more work to do, but this is a first step," said Jeremy Littell, a forest ecologist who helped organize the report.

The picture is not uniformly grim. For instance, because winter storms are likely to bring more rain and less snow, we should see higher stream flows in the winter. That means we can make more hydropower -- a plus, since winter heating sometimes requires importing electricity. But the flip side of that coin is that there will be less snow left around in the summer -- when we count on it to melt slowly, recharging reservoirs and dropping stream temperatures enough to keep salmon healthy. Plus, more people will be cranking up the air conditioning in the summer -- the very time Northwesterners now profit by selling the juice to sweltering Californians.

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http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/399586_climate11.html

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. UW Press Release - "more people are projected to die because of heat waves"

http://uwnews.washington.edu/ni/article.asp?articleID=47174

Feb. 11, 2009 | Environment | Science

New state climate report indicates coming decades will be challenging

Sandra Hines [e-mail]

The most detailed report ever on how climate change could affect Washington paints a stark picture, but it should help the state avoid being surprised by climate-related changes coming down the road.

The assessment, which provides information critical to planning for climate change in the next 50 years, is built on global scenarios, one of low greenhouse-gas emissions and the other of medium emissions. The global scenarios were then tailored to reveal climate changes and consequences for Washington, something few other states have accomplished for themselves, says Edward Miles, University of Washington professor of marine affairs and head of the UW Climate Impacts Group.

The assessment will be released Wednesday, Feb. 11, to the state's Department of Ecology and the Department of Community, Trade and Economic Development. The public can find the executive summary and final draft of the full report later this week at the Climate Impacts Group's Web site, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.

The 2007 state Legislature funded the Climate Impacts Group to lead the study, with Miles and UW civil and environmental engineering's Dennis Lettenmaier as co-principal investigators. For the first time the group and its partners considered the effects of climate change on:

• Human health where, under medium warming scenarios, more people are projected to die because of heat waves. In King County, for example, it is projected that by 2025 there could be 101 additional deaths among people 45 and older; by 2045, there could be an additional 156 deaths. Poorer air quality in the summers will also contribute to more deaths by mid-century.
• Agriculture, where impacts on Eastern Washington are not projected to be severe for the winter wheat, apples and potatoes through mid-century, assuming there is the same amount of water for irrigation and that more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which plants use to grow, will prove beneficial. Yields of winter wheat, for instance, could increase about 8 percent during the 2020s and 20 percent during the 2040s. The effects of declining irrigation water supplies on crops were considered for the Yakima Valley, where there will be less water for all users, especially those with junior water rights, Miles says. Under the medium greenhouse-gas emission scenario, average apple and cherry yields could decline 20 to 25 percent in the 2020s. That would cause the value of apple and cherry production to decline by some $20 million, or 5 percent, in the 2020s. The effects, particularly on junior-water-right holders, could be even more pronounced after that, the report says.
• Energy supply and demand, where the energy demand for cooling in the summer is expected to increase 400 percent by 2040 compared to the average demand for 1971-1999. The growth in demand will coincide with expected decreases in summertime flows in the Columbia River, which could mean 13 to 16 percent less power being produced in summers by the 2040s. Demand for winter heating is expected to grow until 2040 when warmer winters will slacken demand.
• Existing urban storm sewers and systems, where results suggest that the magnitude of extreme high precipitation events will increase for the Puget Sound region.

These new areas of consideration were in addition to areas that have been studied by the Climate Impacts Group for more than a decade. Included in the new assessment are the latest findings about the effects of climate change on snowpack, streamflow and water storage, as well as on salmon, forests and coastal areas.

Partners in the study are Washington State University and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

"I hope government and agencies take this very seriously and use the time available to begin planning in detail how they will respond and what they want citizens to do," Miles says.

How society might slow the buildup of greenhouse gases is not part of the assessment. Such efforts, if successful, could mean the difference between dealing with the low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario in the report versus the intermediate scenario, or the difference between dealing with the intermediate scenario and even greater warming, the effects of which are not included in this assessment, Miles says.

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