Climate change will prompt significant declines in up to a third of California bird species

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New Audubon California research shows that the magnitude of these declines depends greatly on how well we curb greenhouse gas emissions

Sacramento, CA – Up to 110 of 310 California native bird species will experience significant reductions in their geographic range in the next several decades due to climate change, according to new research from Audubon California. These reductions will be part of massive range shifts to all of the state’s bird species caused wholly or in part by the effects of climate change.

The full report can be seen at www.ca.audubon.org.

These predictions come at the same time that new research from the National Audubon Society shows that a majority of birds in the U.S. in the last 40 years have moved further north and inland in an attempt to adapt to climate change.

Models produced by Audubon California’s science team indicate that the magnitude of losses in California depends in large part to the steps we take now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a roadmap for ensuring that the conservation investments we make today have maximum value in an environment that is seeing major shifts due to climate change.

“For years, people have made considerable conservation investments with their fingers crossed that their work won’t simply be erased by climate change in a few years,” said Bill Monahan, senior GIS scientist at Audubon California. “Having a sense of what the landscape actually will look like 50 or even 100 years into the future will allow us to make much better conservation investments today.”

Monahan and his colleagues built their findings by combining 40 years of data compiled by volunteers in the Audubon Christmas Bird Count with Breeding Bird Survey information and geographic climate data. As a result they have been able to create predictive models for 310 California species under different climate change mitigation scenarios.

Looking at individual species, the results are startling:

The California Gnatcatcher, long an important species for conservation in California, could lose as much as 56 percent of its range, or as little as 7 percent, depending on how well climate change is addressed.
The Chestnut-backed Chickadee, a popular bird in the Bay Area, could lose as much as 49 percent of its range, or as little as 16 percent.
The Yellow-billed Magpie, a striking bird that only lives in California’s Central Valley and Coast Ranges, could lose as much as 75 percent of its range, or as little as 9 percent, depending on what measures we take to address climate change.
Not only do these results show the potential benefits of aggressive action to mitigate the effects of climate change, but they also should prompt policymakers and land managers to better plan investments in habitat conservation.

“With all of these ranges shifting, providing a hospitable environment for these birds becomes a important consideration,” said Graham Chisholm, director of conservation for Audubon California. “This is going to be invaluable information for any land manager – public, private or non-profit – looking to unlock any habitat’s greatest conservation value.”

The authors note that California can promote climate change mitigation through State Assembly Bill 32 (AB32), the California Global Warming Solutions Act. They specifically note strategies such as a market-based program such as cap-and-trade, or more traditional solutions such as reducing our oil consumption and clean energy.

“We also need to find ways to help birds adapt to changes in the climate that are already underway,” added Monahan. “We can do this by setting aside critical habitat for wildlife, improving water resources, building connectivity among habitat areas, and manage land ecosystems to take advantage of carbon sequestration.”

National Audubon Society scientists found that the historical movement of 177 species ranging from the Purple Finch to the Boreal Chickadee to the American Black Duck is closely correlated to annual temperature fluctuations, revealing an undeniable link to the changing climate. Movement was detected among species of every type, including more than 80 percent of highly adaptable forest and feeder birds to 46 percent of grassland species, whose vanishing habitat and dwindling numbers may limit their ability to move with the climate.

“Birds are showing us how the heavy hand of humanity is tipping the balance of nature and causing ecological disruption in ways we are just beginning to predict and comprehend,” said report co-author and Audubon Director of Bird Conservation, Greg Butcher, Ph.D. “Common sense dictates that we act now to curb the causes and impacts of global warming to the extent we can, and shape our policies to better cope with the disruptions we cannot avoid.”

About Audubon California
Audubon California is building a better future for California by bringing people together to appreciate, enjoy and protect our spectacular outdoor treasures. With more than 50,000 members in California and an affiliated 49 local Audubon chapters, Audubon California is a field program of the National Audubon Society.

Learn more at www.ca.audubon.org

(Mods: this is a press release.)