Model sees severe climate change impact by 2050—Britain should prepare for massive loss of landmass

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/feb/13/climate-change

Britain should prepare for massive loss of landmass, warn engineers

UK should change building design, transport and energy infrastructure ahead of climate change and high sea levels

Terry Macalister
The Guardian, Thursday 12 February 2009

Ministers should prepare the British people to "adapt" in the longer term to a landscape devastated by climate change, including the possible abandonment of parts of London and East Anglia, a leading industry body warns today.

Action to curb carbon emissions is failing, so the UK should immediately change the way it designs buildings, transport and energy infrastructure in preparation for aworld potentially characterised by extreme heat and high sea levels, argues the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) in a new report.

The institute said it wanted its latest research to provoke serious action for future planning "not just for the sake of our planet but also for the human race. Yes, we need to mitigate (emissions) – but the evidence shows this is not working alone."

Even with significant global commitment to avert climate change it could be many centuries before average temperatures can be stabilised, says the document, Climate Change: Adapting to the Inevitable?, which was described by environmentalists as a "wake-up call" for government.

…

[ananda]

1. A question about England..

I thought the island was high, with cliffs
and everything. My geography sucks, though.

I guess this is the new reality about gw
that c o u l d be denied at everyone's
peril. I suppose USA coastal areas are
in peril as well.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Geography 101

It's not all the "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_cliffs_of_Dover">White Cliffs of Dover."


Cities tend to be built in advantageous locations (like along rivers or on coastlines.) Think of where major US cities (New York, Boston, New Orleans…) have been built. The picture is similar all over the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_places_on_the_British_coastline

[HereSince1628]

5. It is an island. It has some high cliffs on the coast.

But not everywhere. The Thames at London is essentially at sea level.

[starroute]

11. There's a good set of maps at this link showing various scenarios

http://www.geomantics.com/sealevel.htm

The image below shows the current geography compared to the result of a 6 meter rise, which would occur if the Greenland and West Antarctica icesheets melted. It's a little hard to make out the difference, but basically most of the dark green land areas on the first image become water on the second.

Other maps on the page show more extreme cases, up to a complete melting of the ice sheets, which reduce Britain to an archipelago.

[Hoopla Phil]

2. This may not be a bad idea.

Now I'm not wanting to get into any debate or be called a denier of the green house affect here.

What I AM saying is that the Earth HAS warmed and cooled many times in its history. IF, and I stress IF this current warming phase is natural thin I seriously doubt that there is anything mankind can do to stop it. It would be a much smarter approach to focus on adaption.

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. OK, so consider this for a moment

Let's say that mankind is able to "kick off" natural forces which have caused the Earth to warm in the past.

If, by adjusting our behavior, we can prevent that from happening, wouldn't that be a good idea? Or, if we've already "kicked off" certain "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Feedback">feedbacks," but, we might be able to intercede before they're completely unstoppable, wouldn't that be a good idea?

By all means, we need to be realistic. There's a certain amount of "climate change" that is virtually certain at this time, and we need to prepare to deal with it.

However, don't you think that attempting to lessen its effects, by addressing its causes makes sense too?

[kestrel91316]

9. The debate is settled. Global warming is a fact, and man's role in it is a fact.

For us to fail to attempt to mitigate the damage we have caused to the atmosphere and climate and biosphere is the worst sort of irresponsibility.

And NO, we aren't gonna trust free market capitalism to fix it. It's time for the grownups to step up to the plate, accept responsibility, and get to work on mitigation.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Now, all we need to do is find "grownups"

Seriously, while the "free market" may not have done much to avert this crisis, the governments of the world haven't either.

If you don't trust the "free market" (I don't either) why should you have any greater faith in the politicians?

For the past 8 years, the US government has not just been slow to act, they've waged an active disinformation campaign. Now, we have different people in charge, but I guess I'm still not seeing any real kind of urgency.

If the US government really took the "Climate Crisis" seriously, it would be mentioned in every speech, at every news conference, and on every network news broadcast.

Consider some of the postings here in the past week. How many made it onto the evening news?

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Model sees severe climate change impact by 2050

http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE51C03920090213

Model sees severe climate change impact by 2050

Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:19pm EST

By Michael Kahn

LONDON (Reuters) - Current efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions will do little to ease damaging climate change, according to a report issued Friday that predicts Greenland's ice sheets will start melting by 2050.

A computer model calculated that if carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow at the current rate over the next 40 years, global temperatures will still rise 2 degrees Centigrade compared with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

This would push the planet to the brink, sparking unprecedented flooding and heatwaves and making it even more difficult to reverse the trend, according to the report from the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in Britain.

"Indeed organizations such as the European Union believe that an increase of 2 degrees Centrigrade relative to the pre-industrial climate is the maximum acceptable temperature rise to prevent uncontrollable and catastrophic climate change," the report said.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Read the report here

http://www.imeche.org/NR/rdonlyres/CBF13D63-D8F5-483C-BB64-981D610F373B/0/IMechEAdaptationreport.pdf

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. Nations must ‘act now’ on climate change

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c388b14-f925-11dd-ab7f-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Nations must ‘act now’ on climate change

By Fiona Harvey in London

Published: February 12 2009 18:05 | Last updated: February 12 2009 18:05

Countries must begin adapting to the effects of climate change as a matter of urgency or face serious effects from global warming, a leading industry group warned on Thursday.

Water and sewage infrastructure, the electricity network and transport were all at risk from the effects of climate change, including floods, droughts and severe storms, said the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, an international body for the engineering industry.

It urged governments around the world to face up to the challenge of adapting to the effects of global warming, rather than putting all their efforts into cutting greenhouse gases.

If the world is unsuccessful in cutting greenhouse gases to the extent necessary – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said global emissions must peak by 2015 to 2020 to avoid the worst effects of climate change – then adaptation to more severe and unpredictable weather will be needed.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. 'CO2 reduction treaties useless'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7888994.stm

'CO2 reduction treaties useless'

By Sarah Mukherjee
BBC environment correspondent

A new report says treaties aimed at reducing CO2 emissions are useless.

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers report says we have to accept the world could change dramatically.

…

Realism

International diplomats and environment campaigners have, for years, been pursuing an international agreement to reduce carbon emissions.

In its present incarnation it is called the Kyoto Protocol.

“ The existing Kyoto Protocol has, to date, been a near total failure ”

Institution of Mechanical Engineers report

…