With El Nino Pattern On Horizon For Victoria State By 2010 - 2011, Droughts, Fires Likely To Go On

[hatrack]

VICTORIA is likely to come under the influence of another El Nino within the next three years, exacerbating the drought and the likelihood of bushfires, a senior Bureau of Meteorology climate scientist says. David Jones, the head of the bureau's National Climate Centre, said there was some risk of a worsening El Nino event this year, but it was more likely to arrive in 2010 or 2011.

"We are in the build-up to the next El Nino and already the drought is as bad as it has ever been — in terms of the drought, this may be as good as things get," Dr Jones said. "And the repeated, severe bushfire seasons we have been seeing are a direct result of this very severe, protracted drought."

While climate scientists warn a single event such as Victoria's deadly bushfires cannot be blamed on climate change alone, Dr Jones said the conditions were "totally typical of climate change at the most pessimistic end of the models".

He said El Nino and La Nina events influenced rainfall but neither was controlling the drought, now entering its 13th year. A recent study co-headed by the CSIRO found the record-breaking dry may also be linked to the Indian Ocean's cycle of warming and cooling.

EDIT

http://www.theage.com.au/national/drought-and-fire-here-to-stay-with-el-ninos-return-20090216-899u.html

[ccharles000]

1. I feel so bad for the people there.