Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation ("decreasing cloud amounts")

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http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL037527.shtml

Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation

Kevin E. Trenberth
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

John T. Fasullo
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

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Global climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are examined for the top‐of‐atmosphere radiation changes as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases build up from 1950 to 2100. There is an increase in net radiation absorbed, but not in ways commonly assumed. While there is a large increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing greenhouse gases and water vapor (as a feedback), this is offset to a large degree by a decreasing greenhouse effect from reducing cloud cover and increasing radiative emissions from higher temperatures. Instead the main warming from an energy budget standpoint comes from increases in absorbed solar radiation that stem directly from the decreasing cloud amounts. These findings underscore the need to ascertain the credibility of the model changes, especially insofar as changes in clouds are concerned.

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Received 28 January 2009; accepted 19 March 2009; published 14 April 2009.

Citation: Trenberth, K. E., and J. T. Fasullo (2009), Global warming due to increasing absorbed solar radiation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037527.