Mitzubishi says there will be a shortage of Lithium by 2015.

[JohnWxy]

High in the Andes, in Bolivia, lies over half the World's supply of Lithium. And all the prospective electric car manufacuters are there to get there share.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7707847.stm

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
~~
~~
But there is a problem.


Mitsubishi, which plans to release its own electric car soon, estimates that the demand for lithium will outstrip supply in less than 10 years unless new sources are found.

And they have ended up in Bolivia.

"The demand for lithium won't double but increase by five times," according to Eichi Maeyama Mitsubishi's general manager in La Paz.
~~
~~

Mitsubishi predicts that there will be a supply shortage by 2015.
~`
~~

"It is also going to generate pollution, not just from fossil fuels but also from lithium plants, which produce sulphur dioxide. This isn't a magic solution."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOw if the demand grows 5 times as Mitsubishi's General Manager in La Paz predicts, what is going to happen to the price of Lithium?

[Dogmudgeon]

1. We'll have to ramp up seawater extraction

Keep in mind, though, that most of the time, such heretical ideas are met with derision -- and the fearful visage of MR. ROFL!
:rofl:
Fear the ROFL!

But we NEED more Lithium. Especially as the carbonate. Especially most of the people in this forum.

:evilgrin:

--d!

[JohnWxy]

2. any cost estimates for this extraction process? just curious.

[Xipe Totec]

4. Its concentration in seawater is 0.17 parts per million

In sea salt, the concentration is 4.85 parts per million.

I don't have a cost estimate, but it's likely to be rather expensive.

Crystallization of sodium chloride would probably be a first step in upping the concentration of lithium in the remaining liquor.

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Off hand? None. I do know that process is viable.

But at the low concentration for Li in seawater, those brines of which kristopher has posted may be better targets.

I suppose this is how the abundance of Li can be boosted -- by including the brines. Right now (at least as of 2005, the last time I put any time into reading up on them), they are difficult and expensive to work with. In five or ten more years, there are likely to be a few fundamental breakthroughs in engineering, and they could be quite inexpensive.

Of course, that would also eliminate the complaint that there isn't enough uranium -- but I'm confident that in 10 years, people won't be fighting energy battles from 1980 (or even 2009). Whatever we are working on in 2019 will have benefited from a decade of work.

There's also the issue of the cost of making lithium into batteries, the capacity of these batteries, all relative to the cost of electricity as a "product". These numbers are changing rapidly, in favor of the new technologies.

--d!

[kristopher]

13. Current data

Cost Considerations



Claims have been made that if (ever) the cheap brine sources became exhausted or that demand grows to such an extent that the current producers cannot meet demand - citing pegmatite costs as an example, costs and prices would increase considerably.

In fact a high percentage of current Chinese production is from spodumene and two years ago SQM estimated production costs at between $1.80 to $2.20/lb . A former North Carolina producer recently gave a ball-park estimate of $2.50-$3.00/lb for production from the former operations there.

In Santiago, Chemetall did the maths as far as batteries are concerned. Assuming a battery cost of 500 Euros per kW/h and a carbonate cost of 6 Euro/kilo the carbonate cost is less than 1% of the total. Clearly, higher costs are palatable in this application.

Finally, in situ resources total approximately 30.0 million tonnes and a recovery of 50% seems probable. As a result of an increase in exploration activity more resources will be discovered and partly explored pegmatites will be drilled at depth and along unexplored strike. An example is the Tallison pegmatite in Western Australia where increased reserves were announced in Santiago – from 223,000 tonnes Li in my estimate to 1.5 million tonnes.

There are a large number of additional Salares in the Andean altiplano now receiving the attention of geologists and if recovery from hectorites proves to be viable there are numerous other occurrences reported upon by the USGS.

Returning to the demand side, each million tonnes of recovered elemental lithium or 5.6 billion kilos of carbonate will be sufficient for 560 million vehicles requiring a 10 kW/h battery. Most batteries will require much less.

R. Keith Evans

[phantom power]

5. Which reminds me...

this lithium shortage issue was predicted by a certain guy who, if I recall, was met with the usual response of tourette's jokes.

[JohnWxy]

6. sorry I missed it - your prediction - not the inane responses.

[phantom power]

7. It wasn't my prediction, it was NNadir's prediction.

Although I have a potty mouth, I have yet to be accused of tourette's (or epilepsy).

[kristopher]

9. And it was just as accurate and ignorant

As the rest of his lunatic ravings and profanity.

[NNadir]

14. Actually, a guy who used to write here made a compelling argument that I was

wrong about whether or not there was "enough" lithium to make a brazillion cars.

Of course, lithium doesn't matter anyway, although it will be interesting to see how much of an effect it has on the car CULTure delusion when it starts showing up in the water supply along with all the phosphate and nitrate from the stupid and failed ethanol experiment, and the oil and other petroleum products from the original distributed energy car CULTure scheme.

Lithium is no more a form of energy than hydrogen is, and the hydrogen scheme, from Governor Hydrogen Hummer to Utsira is just a cute red herring for people who want to pretend that there is such a thing as a "green car."

There are a lot of people here who seem to think that electricity comes out of a wall socket or that it actually comes from all the wind and solar plants that they keep hallucinating about.

Maybe the lithium will help them, I don't know.

For the time being however, the <em>real</em> numbers about where electricity comes from <em>before</em> it comes out of the magic wall socket are here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

Of course, this table is going to create lots of objections on the grounds it contains something called numbers and makes no soothsaying predictions about 2020, 2030, 2040 or 2050. It comes from something called data which, for some reason, is less popular than soothsaying.

[kristopher]

10. Lithium. Facts from the Santiago, Chile, Conference. January 2009

A conference entitled “Lithium Supply and Markets” organised by Industrial Minerals magazine was held in Santiago, Chile, in January this year. It was attended by 150 geologists, mining engineers, chemical engineers, producers, would be producers, battery experts and consumers.

I had the pleasure of making the first presentation concerning reserves and resources estimating in situ tonnages of 30.0 million tonnes Li - about 160.0 million tonnes of carbonate-the principal feed chemical for the chemicals used in lithium-ion batteries. My estimate was an update of a National Research Council report produced in the mid 1970’s and updated to include more recent discoveries using the tonnages estimated by the companies involved in evaluating the targets.

As with the NRC report a fairly wide definition of reserves and resources was adopted along the lines of the statement made by Donella Meadows in 1972. “Reserve is a concept related to the amount of material that has been discovered or inferred to exist and that can be used given reasonable assumptions about technology and price”.

Definitions used by the USGS are tighter than this, hence lower tonnage estimates from that source. When the NRC team was chosen they were asked to produce a report on resources which in the opinion of the team stood a reasonable chance of being developed should a major demand develop. At the time the concern was in respect of lithium availability for fusion reactors. The tonnage estimated by the panel which included one current and one former USGS employee, was considerably higher than the official estimate at that time.

Other estimates quoted in Santiago were, from Chemetall and FMC for 28.0 million tonnes Li and 35.7 million tonnes Li from SQM. In my address I also quoted an estimate by Laksic and Tilton (University of Chile and Colorado School of Mines respectively) of 35.0 million tonnes.

In a summary of the conference proceedings by the Chairman, Gerry Clark, he wrote “What speakers in the Santiago event demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt is that lithium resources are large enough to cover any rationally conceivable demand”.

Before leaving the subject of resources and reserves I would like to make the comment that moving from one category to the other is an expensive exercise. As an example, the hectorite deposit on the Nevada/Oregon border comprises 5 lenses. When drilled years ago Chevron, the former owners, came up with a tentative estimate of 2.3 million tonnes Li.

As part of its Feasibility study, Western Mining has redrilled one of the lenses in a tight pattern to indicate a lithium tonnage of 162,000 tonnes - within 10% of the Chevron figure for that lens. Do they feel any compulsion to undertake detailed drilling at the other lenses? As they are a relatively small company I doubt they can justify the expense so the other 2.0 million tonnes will remain a resource. The drilled lens contains 800,000 tonnes of carbonate – more than sufficient for a lengthy period.

In Santiago the issue of current chemical production capacity was discussed which is estimated at 115,000 tpa of lithium carbonate equivalents compared with current demand of approximately 95,000 tpa.

Of greatest interest were projections of future demand where the numbers vary greatly because of the varying assumptions regarding total vehicle numbers, the percentage penetration of the total market, the percentage that are lithium-ion powered and the vehicle type.

All three producers used the same figure of 0.6 kg carbonate per 1kW/h of battery capacity with the type, battery capacity and carbonate demand tabulated below.



Vehicle Type Battery Capacity LCE Demand

Mild HEV 2 KW/H 1.2 kg

PHEV 12 7.2

EV 25 15



SQM in its estimate for 2020 looked at two scenarios assuming 9% and 20% electric vehicles in the fleet with 60% and 80% being powered with Li-ion. The annual carbonate demand ranged from 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes in the conservative case 55,000 to 65,000 tonnes in the optimistic case.

Unlike others making estimates, SQM also looked at 2030 with 15% and 25% electric vehicles in the fleet and 75% and 90% being Li-ion powered resulting in a demand of 65,000 to 75,000 in the conservative case and 135,000 to 145,000 in the optimistic case.

Chemetall also tabulated a range of scenarios with 2020 demand for vehicles from a low 5,000 to 60,500 tonnes of carbonate demand.

FMC estimated the market penetration of HEV’s at 20-30%, PHEV’s at 2-5% and EV’s at 1-3% in 2020 resulting in a carbonate demand of 70,000 tpa.

TRU Group presented a study made on behalf of Mitsubishi Corporation. They estimated the production of battery equipped cars at approximately 5 million/year by 2020. They also estimated that technical issues will be resolved for HEV’s by 2011, for PHEV’s by 2014 and for EV’s by 2016.





Future Production



Current capacity for chemical production approximates to 115,000 tpa lithium carbonate equivalents. At the conference Chemetall announced that it would stage expansions in response to market demand which could more than double capacity (to 50,000 and 15,000 tpa carbonate and hydroxide respectively) by 2020 and FMC stated that at current production rates they had reserves to last for 70 years.

SQM pumps sufficient brine to recover approximately 800,000 tpa of potash (potassium chloride and potassium sulfate) together with a modest tonnage of boric acid. From this feed they have the lithium capacity to produce 40,000 tpa carbonate but the lithium in the brine greatly exceeds this and the excess is returned to the salar. The expansion potential is very large. The company claims that the returned brine contains in excess of 200,000 tpa carbonate.

The Chinese plan to expand brine based capacity to 85,000 tonnes by 2010 but it is known that they are having serious problems with the high magnesium/lithium ratios in two of the brine sources.

In addition to current operations there are several projects in the pipeline. Three pegmatite based operations are being evaluated, one each in Australia (Galaxy Resources), Canada (Canadian Lithium) and one in Finland (Keliber Resources) with combined in situ reserves of 124,000 tonnes Li.

In Argentina the Salar de Rincon project is targeted to produce 17,000 tpa carbonate and the Salar de Olaroz, further north, is being evaluated by Orocobre.

In Bolivia, the Salar de Uyuni, is receiving massive attention by the press with claims that “it is the Saudi Arabia of lithium” also “it has nearly 50% of the world’s reserves” and “it is the most beautiful resource on the planet”. It is undoubtedly large – Ballivian and Risacher estimated 5.5 million tonnes Li but are only one sixth of the world's resources. However, it has problems with a low lithium concentration and a high Mg/Li ratio which will complicate and increase the cost of processing. The richest part of the reserve is in an area where the aquifer is very thin and the whole salar floods seasonally – diluting grade and complicating the construction of the very large area of solar evaporation ponds that will be required.

Mention has been made previously of Western Lithium’s hectorite deposits in the western United States. The resource contains in excess of 2.0 million tonnes Li. Costs are not known yet and this also applies to Simbol Mining’s proposal to recover lithium from the rich geothermal brines in the Salton Sea area of Southern California.

RTZ’s jadarite deposit in Serbia appears to be extremely attractive. This unique mineral occurs in 3 stacked layers. Reserves were disclosed for one of them in Santiago – 0.95 million tonnes Li. If mined out over a period of 20 years it would produce 60,000 tpa carbonate with the co-production of 300,000 tpa boric acid. The geological evidence suggests that this deposit could contain double the currently stated reserves.



Cost Considerations



Claims have been made that if (ever) the cheap brine sources became exhausted or that demand grows to such an extent that the current producers cannot meet demand - citing pegmatite costs as an example, costs and prices would increase considerably.

In fact a high percentage of current Chinese production is from spodumene and two years ago SQM estimated production costs at between $1.80 to $2.20/lb . A former North Carolina producer recently gave a ball-park estimate of $2.50-$3.00/lb for production from the former operations there.

In Santiago, Chemetall did the maths as far as batteries are concerned. Assuming a battery cost of 500 Euros per kW/h and a carbonate cost of 6 Euro/kilo the carbonate cost is less than 1% of the total. Clearly, higher costs are palatable in this application.

Finally, in situ resources total approximately 30.0 million tonnes and a recovery of 50% seems probable. As a result of an increase in exploration activity more resources will be discovered and partly explored pegmatites will be drilled at depth and along unexplored strike. An example is the Tallison pegmatite in Western Australia where increased reserves were announced in Santiago – from 223,000 tonnes Li in my estimate to 1.5 million tonnes.

There are a large number of additional Salares in the Andean altiplano now receiving the attention of geologists and if recovery from hectorites proves to be viable there are numerous other occurrences reported upon by the USGS.

Returning to the demand side, each million tonnes of recovered elemental lithium or 5.6 billion kilos of carbonate will be sufficient for 560 million vehicles requiring a 10 kW/h battery. Most batteries will require much less.

R. Keith Evans


http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/245042-ligeologist/2584-lithium-facts-from-the-santiago-chile-conference-january-2009

[YOY]

3. Who needs Lithium when you have the whole Lithgow?

[kristopher]

8. AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM R. Keith Evans March 2008

AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM

R. Keith Evans


March 2008









Keith Evans, a geologist by profession, first became involved in the lithium business in the early
1970’s when, on behalf of Selection Trust Ltd., was asked to evaluate the future potential of
Bikita Minerals in what, at that time, was Southern Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe). Selection Trust
was the majority owner of the operation which, prior to the imposition of United Nations
sanctions, had been the dominant producer of lithium ores for direct usage in the glass and
ceramics industry.
Subsequently, he joined Lithium Corporation of America, the then leading lithium chemical
producer and later moved to Amax Exploration.
On behalf of Amax and a Chilean partner he negotiated with Corfo, a Chilean government entity,
the rights to evaluate and develop that part of the Salar de Atacama that had not been leased to
the Foote Mineral Company.
He was responsible for all aspects of the evaluation but when Amax decided not to proceed with
the project it was acquired by Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) and the company is now the
world’s largest lithium chemicals producer.
Throughout his career in the lithium industry it was his responsibility to monitor industry
developments particularly in respect of new resources and he has continued as a consultant in a
number of industrial minerals.






ABSTRACT

In 1976 a National Research Council Panel estimated that Western World lithium reserves and
resources totaled 10.6 million tonnes as elemental lithium.

Subsequent discoveries, particularly in brines in the southern Andes and the plateaus of western
China and Tibet have increased the tonnages significantly. Geothermal brines and lithium
bearing clays add to the total.

This current estimate totals 28.4 million tonnes Li equivalent to more than 150.0 million tonnes
of lithium carbonate of which nearly 14.0 million tonnes lithium (about 74.0 million tonnes of
carbonate) are at active or proposed operations.

This can be compared with current demand for lithium chemicals which approximates to 84,000
tonnes as lithium carbonate equivalents (16,000 tonnes Li).

Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable
applications are unfounded.


I INTRODUCTION


In 1975 the United States Geological Survey convened a symposium in Golden, Colorado, on lithium
demand and resources prompted by the premise that lithium resources would be inadequate to meet future
demand in fusion power generation (expected from the Year 2000 onward!) and in load leveling storage
batteries. Demand estimates were astronomic and in the light of these projections the availability of
adequate reserves was seriously questioned. In the introduction to the symposium reference was made to
the “gravity” of the impending shortage of lithium. (Anon 1976)

Fortunately, shortly afterwards, at the request of the United States Energy Research and Development
Administration, the National Academy of Sciences and Engineering formed a National Research Council
Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONEAS) to report on the role of nuclear power
in the context of alternative energy systems in the time period 1985 to 2010. CONEAS was organized into
four main panels and twenty-six sub panels and the Lithium Sub Panel was one of these asked to report on
raw material availability.

This group was chaired by Dr. Thomas Kesler, formerly with the USGS and the leading authority on the
North Carolina tin-spodumene belt the, then, dominant source of lithium, Dr. James Vine of the USGS and
the head of its Lithium Resource Appraisal Group, Dr. Ihor Kunasz of the Foote Mineral Company and the
writer representing Lithium Corporation of America. The panel reported in 1976 (Evans, 1978) and some
of the figures used in this current paper are based on that report.

The tonnage estimated in the panel report of 10.65 million tonnes of Li was in respect of the Western
World as little data were available in respect of Russia and China.




1.
In 1985, fresh concerns about lithium availability arose from a different group of researchers and
aluminium producers when it seemed a possibility that lithium-aluminium alloys for aircraft would create a
major demand and the writer produced an updated report based on new discoveries in the preceding ten
years (Evans 1986).

Additions to the 1978 paper included the estimated reserves in the Greenbushes spodumene pegmatite in
Western Australia, the brines of the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, the lithium in geothermal brines in Southern
California and the lithium contained in hectorite deposits in the Western USA.

Recently, concern has again been expressed about lithium availability (Tahil, 2007) because of the potential
very large scale use of lithium carbonate, in particular, in lithium-ion batteries in hybrid and all-electric
motor vehicles and this has precipitated the preparation of this report.


II LITHIUM SOURCES

Actual and potential sources of lithium are from pegmatites, continental brines, geothermal brines, oilfield
brines and the clay mineral hectorite.

PEGMATITES - are course grained igneous rocks formed by the crystallization of post magmatic fluids.
They occur in close proximity to large magmatic intrusions. Lithium containing pegmatites are relatively
rare and are most frequently associated with tin and tantalite. Many of the lithium ‘discoveries’ resulted
from the exploration for these associated minerals.

The principal lithium pegmatite minerals are spodumene, petalite (both lithium-aluminium silicates) and
lepidolite (a lithium mica) which normally contains minor quantities of cesium, rubidium and fluorine. All
have been used directly in the glass and ceramic industries provided the iron content is low and all have
been used as the feedstock for the production of lithium chemicals. Spodumene, as a concentrate, is still
used in China for lithium chemical production and new production is planned in Europe and Australia.

CONTINENTAL BRINES - these brines with the lithium derived mainly from the leaching of volcanic
rocks vary greatly in lithium content largely as a result of the extent to which they have been subject to
solar evaporation. They range from between 30 to 60 ppm in the Great Salt Lake, Utah, where the
evaporation rates are modest and dilution is constant due to the high volume of fresh water inflow, through
the subsurface brines in Searles Lake California (a former location of lithium production) and Silver Peak,
Nevada (a current source) to the high altitude salars in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Tibet and China where
lithium concentrations can be very high.

GEOTHERMAL BRINES - the author is not aware of any publications that provide a listing of the lithium
content of all known geothermal brines. Small quantities are contained in brines at Wairakei, New Zealand
(13ppm Li) at the Reykanes Field (8ppm) and other areas in Iceland and at El Tatio in Chile (47ppm). The
most attractive known occurrences are in the the Brawley area south of the Salton Sea in Southern
California.

OILFIELD BRINES - large tonnages of lithium are contained in oil field brines in North Dakota,
Wyoming, Oklahoma, east Texas and Arkansas where brines grading up to 700mg/lt are known to exist.
Other lithium brines exist in the Paradox Basin, Utah and but the author is unaware of any global review of
the potential.

HECTORITE CLAYS - hectorite is a magnesium lithium smectite and the clay is found in a number of
areas in the western United States. The largest known deposit is associated with the volcanic rocks of the
McDermitt caldera that straddles the Nevada/Oregon border where it occurs in a series of elongate lenses.
Current drilling is confirming earlier work that indicated very large tonnages of contained lithium.

2.
III MAJOR INDUSTRY CHANGES



At the time of the National Research Council report the production of lithium chemicals was a duopoly in
the Western world and demand at that time approximated to 3,200 tonnes/year of Li. Little was known
about Russian and Chinese production and reserves.

The two main producers were Lithium Corporation of America (LCA) and the Foote Mineral Company.
Both processed spodumene concentrates from their mines near Bessemer City and Kings Mountain, North
Carolina.

In 1975 Foote, then owned by Cyprus Minerals, signed an agreement with CORFO, a Chilean Government
agency and owner of the mineral claims covering the nucleus of the Salar de Atacama to evaluate the brine
deposit there. At the end of the evaluation the company was allowed to lease a percentage of the claims.
Sociedad Chileno de Litio was formed and production commenced in 1984. Foote/Cyprus was
subsequently purchased by Chemetall and later by Rockwood Holdings.

In 1980, Amax Exploration visited the Salar as part of a global search for potash but on discovering that the
Foote agreement granted them exclusive rights for lithium recovery for only eight years pressed for the
right to co-produce lithium. In 1984 CORFO invited bids for the development of much of the remainder of
the Salar’s nucleus. Amax were successful in bidding against LCA (which, by then had been purchased by
FMC Corp.) but Amax, following the completion of an evaluation programme, decided to dispose of its
interest and this was acquired by Socieded Quimica y Minera (SQM) a major producer of iodine and
sodium nitrate. SQM came into production at the Salar in 1997. The production duopoly was now broken
and to acquire market share and with its low costs SQM substantially reduced the price of lithium
carbonate.

Having lost the bid in Chile, FMC turned its attention to the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia but failed in its
negotiations with the Government there but successfully negotiated with the Argentinian authorities for
rights to the Salar de Hombre Muerto. Although a much smaller salar the brine is an extremely ‘clean’ one
and produced a quality of lithium chloride unavailable elsewhere. However, both capital and operating
costs were much greater than anticipated and carbonate production was suspended for several years. FMC
became reliant upon SQM for carbonate.

The North Carolina pegmatite mines closed with the development of the lower cost reserves in Chile and
Argentina.

Another producer Admiralty Resources, plans to come on stream in 2008 from shallow brines at the Salar
de Rincon in Argentina.

In the early 2000’s after the evaluation of the very large brine deposits in the Qaidam Basin in Northwest
China, a technical breakthrough was achieved in the processing of brines with a high magnesium content.
Subsequently, major discoveries were made on the Tibet Plateau. Prior to the brine developments China
produced lithium chemicals from domestic pegmatite sources and imported spodumene concentrates.

Since the National Research Council report other low iron sources of lithium ore for direct usage have been
developed so now there are three – Bikita in Zimbabwe, Bernic Lake in Canada and Greenbushes in
Australia. The last of these attempted to enter the chemical business but failed. Direct usage ores have
some significance in chemical demand in that they compete with carbonate in certain applications.




3.


IV PRODUCTION COST COMPONENTS




In the case of production from pegmatites, assuming the most common acid leach process is used, they
comprise mining, beneficiation to a moderate or high grade of concentrate, calcination to produce acid-
leachable beta spodumene, reaction with sulphuric acid and the conversion of the lithium sulphate solution
with sodium carbonate. The costs of acid, soda ash and energy are a very significant percentage of total
costs but they can be partly offset if a market exists for the sodium sulfate by-product.

In the case of hectorite clays, geothermal brines and oilfield brines lithium recovery costs have not been
developed but work is current on the first two of these potential sources.

In the case of continental brines which are the current major source costs, probably, vary greatly. As with
the case of pegmatites the cost of soda ash to convert lithium chloride to lithium carbonate is very
significant. Brine grades vary greatly ranging currently in the Andes, from approximately 0.3% Li at the
SQM operation in Chile to 0.062% and 0.034% at the two Argentinian salares of Hombre Muerto and
Rincon respectively.

The most deleterious element in the brine is magnesium and the magnesium/lithium ratio is relatively low
at the Salar de Atacama, very low at the Salar de Hombre Muerto and high at the Salar de Rincon. The
largest of the Chinese brine deposits also has a very high ratio and these brines need more complex
processing.

The other important factor in the brine chemistry is the presence or not of other recoverable products.

In Chile, Rockwood Holdings, now the owner of Chemetall who purchased Foote/Cyprus recover moderate
tonnages of potassium chloride as a co-product at their operation and SQM recover much larger tonnages
together with potassium sulphate and boric acid. Most of SQM’s potassium chloride is converted to much
higher value potassium nitrate using nitrates from company owned deposits located between the salares and
the Pacific coast.

At the Salar de Rincon potash recovery is planned and most of the Chinese salars contain economic
concentrations of potassium and boron.

Another factor affecting capital costs apart from brine grade is the net evaporation rate which determines
the area of the evaporation ponds necessary to increase the grade of the plant feed. These are a major
capital cost but not a factor at the FMC operation where the lithium chloride is recovered directly from the
in situ brine.

In the case of the one geothermal source discussed later the brine is rich in zinc a co-product as well as
lithium and is a major producer of electric power but, as is with the case of oil field brines and hectorites,
lithium recovery costs have not been determined.

A final cost factor is location. Some deposits are extremely remote.




4.

V COUNTRY REVIEW


(a) The United States

Pegmatites:

The two North Carolina operations closed with the development of lower cost sources in Chile but could,
should a massive demand materialize and prices rise as a result, be reactivated.

Based on figures used in the Lithium Panel report and later reserve data it is estimated, very approximately,
that the FMC and former Foote operations contained reserves of 80,000 and 150,000 tonnes Li respectively
at the time both operations were closed.

The Panel, based principally on Kesler’s very extensive work along the 48km long belt estimated a
potential recoverable resource down to a depth of 1,500 metres of 375 million tonnes of ore at a grade
typical of the area thus containing 2.6 million tonnes Li.

Other known pegmatite sources are small.


Continental Brines:

The Panel report listed tonnages for three brines – at Searles Lake, California, at Silver Peak, Nevada and
the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

At Searles Lake lithium was recovered as a by-product from the commercial production of soda ash, potash
and borax. The lithium was essentially a contaminant and with a process modification production ceased in
1978. It is highly improbable that lithium recovery will take place in the future. Silver Peak commenced
production in the 1960’s pumping brines varying from 100 to 300 ppm Li. It continues to operate and the
remaining economic reserves are estimated at 40,000 tonnes Li.

In the Great Salt Lake the overall tonnage of contained lithium approximates to 520,000 tonnes but the
grade is very much lower than other brines considered as potential reserves in this report.


Geothermal Brines:

At the Salton Sea KGRA in southern California a brine with very high concentrations of potash, lithium,
boron, zinc and lead is used to produce 288 megawatts of electric power.

A 30,000 tpa high grade zinc plant based on the brine has experienced technical problems but the brine also
grades about 200 ppm Li and the throughput contains approximately 16,000 tpa Li. (William Bourcier,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, personal communication). Earlier (Duyvestein, 1992)
calculated a similar figure of approximately 11,900 short tons of carbonate per 50 MW of capacity.

To put a reserve tonnage to the annual rate a 20 year life is assumed to give a figure of 316,000 tonnes Li.

There are other sites in the area with high lithium values.

Further north at the Mammoth Lakes geothermal field with a much lower lithium concentration, Lawrence
Livermore Labs have a current project aimed at silica recovery which would be a first step in recovering
lithium from brines of this nature


5.



Oilfield Brines:



Collins (1978) estimated a possible reserve of 0.75 million tonnes of Li in one tenth of the area underlain
by the Smackover Formation which extends through North Dakota, Wyoming, Oklahoma, east Texas and
Arkansas. Other lithium-containing brines exist in the Paradox Basin, Utah.

Hectorites:

At the McDermitt Caldera on the Oregon/Nevada border, Western Uranium Corporation are re-examining
seven lenses of hectorite clay originally drilled by Chevron Resources.

Drilling at the most southerly site, the PCD lens, is confirming the tonnage and grade indicated by
Chevron. This lens has a length of about 2 kms, a width of approximately one kilometer and a thickness of
100 metres under shallow overburden. Higher grade portions of the deposit grade over 0.35% Li and the
cut off used in the reserve calculation is 0.275% Li.

Chevron reported that the total resource contained 23.9 billion lbs of carbonate – 2 million tonnes of Li and
test work on recovery methods is currently being undertaken.

Hectorites are known to occur elsewhere in the western United States but no reserve data exist.



(b) Canada


Pegmatites:

The underground mining operation formerly owned by the Sullivan Mining Group located near Barraute,
Quebec, supplied spodumene concentrate to Lithium Corporation of America to help satisfy the US Atomic
Energy Commission’s lithium hydroxide purchasing contract in the 1950’s.

Subsequently, the company produced a limited range of lithium chemicals but with the ending of the
USAEC contract prices had plummeted. The deposit has recently been acquired by Black Pearl Minerals.
Reserves are stated to total approximately 90,000 tonnes Li.

Cabot Corp’s underground mine at Bernic Lake, was originally developed as a tantalite operation but, now
also produces 20,000 (?) tpa of lithium concentrates for direct usage in the glass and glass ceramic
industry. The zoned pegmatite also hosts the world’s largest reserve of pollucite from which it produces a
range of cesium chemicals.

Current reserves (Gary Poetschke, personal communication) total 18, 600 tonnes Li.

Numerous other pegmatites have been partly explored in Quebec, Manitoba and Ontario including Snow
Lake (26,000 tonnes Li), La Motte (23,000 tonnes Li), Separation Rapids (56,000 tonnes Li), Wekusko
Lake (28,000 tonnes Li) and Sirmac Lake (3,000 tonnes Li) – a total of 147,000 tonnes.



6.

© Zimbabwe

Pegmatites:

Prior to the imposition by the United Nations of economic sanctions against Rhodesia, Bikita Minerals was
the dominant source of lithium minerals for direct use in glass, glass ceramics and enamels because of the
low iron content of the minerals.

The deposit has an exceptionally high grade and comprises a classic zoned pegmatite at its southern end
passing northwards into a complex mixture of petalite, quartz-spodumene intergrowth and small quantities
of eucryptite. The lepidolite in the zoned section provided the feed for the production of about 30% of the
United States Atomic Energy Commission’s lithium hydroxide stockpile. The deposit was initially
evaluated on the basis that products would be hand-picked at +75mm and +25mm so all ore with smaller
crystal sizes were ignored. Thus long sections of the strike length of the main pegmatite and a parallel
spodumene pegmatite were not evaluated. Currently, the different minerals are separated by a heavy
medium system with stockpiles of undersized material from earlier picking as the principal source.

Proved, probable and possible resources (grading 1.4% Li) were estimated by the Panel at 56,700 tonnes
Li.

There is considerable upside potential in this figure and numerous petalite-containing pegmatites are known
in Zimbabwe and there is no published data on reserves at the large Kamitivi tin-spodumene deposit
located in the northwest of the country.



(d) Zaire

Pegmatites:

The largest known lithium-containing pegmatites occur in the vicinity of Manono. Each of a pair has a
length of 5,000 metres and a width of approximately 400 metres. The weathered zone has been worked for
tin and columbite .

Assuming a depth of only 50 metres the pegmatites could contain 2.3 million tonnes of Li.




(e) Australia

Pegmatites:

The Greenbushes pegmatite was first mined for tin and tantalite in the late 1880’s with operations restricted
to the weathered surface material. Deeper exploration a century later revealed the presence of spodumene.

The operation, which has changed ownership many times is now owned by Talison Minerals and is the
world’s largest producer of low-iron content spodumene concentrates at a variety of grades. Concentrates,
until recently at least, are also shipped to China for lithium chemical production there although the
company’s own efforts to produce chemicals in the 1970’s failed.




7.




The pegmatite has a strike length of 3 kms and has not been fully explored. The Sons of Gwalia Annual
Report for 2003 stated proved, probable and possible reserves of 223,000 tonnes Li.



At Mount Marion, also in Western Australia, Roberts (2004) reported on a group of deposits with total
reserves of 19,800 tonnes Li.

Galaxy Resources is currently undertaking an evaluation of a spodumene deposit at Mount Catlin near
Ravensthorpe. The company hopes to come on stream with lithium carbonate production in 2010 from
reserves of 20,000 tonnes of lithium.

Queensland Gold & Minerals is currently exploring for pegmatites near Georgetown in Queensland.



(f) Europe


Pegmatites:

The Koralpa deposit located 20 km west of Wolfsburg in Austria, has been explored to a depth of 450
metres and contains approximately 100,000 tonnes Li.

In Finland, the Larritta deposit contains sufficient ore to allow the production of 6,000 tpa carbonate for 15
years with plant construction scheduled for 2008. The reserve is roughly estimated at 14,000 tonnes Li.
The property is owned by Keliber Resources in which Nordic Resources has a 60% interest.




(g) Russia


Pegmatites:

Most pegmatites in Russia are tantalite–containing and Roskill Information Services lists the following
larger ones. None appears to be mined currently.

Kolmozerskoe 600,000 + tonnes Li20
Polmostundrovskoe )
Ulug-Tanzek )
Goltsovoe ) Each 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes Li20
Urikskoe )


Together they could contain very approximately 1,000,000 tonnes lithium.



8.

(h) Brazil


Pegmatites:

Lithium bearing pegmatites occur in Minas Gerais and Ceara. Tonnages are modest and Ramos (2001)
reported reserves of 85,000 tonnes Li.


(i) Bolivia

Continental Brines:


The Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, at an altitude of 3,650 metres covers an area of 9,000 Km2. Unlike the
major lithium containing salares in Chile and Argentina it is completely flat due to annual flooding.

Ballivian and Risacher (1981) reported on brine grades of 0.035% Li and 0.72%K. Grades are highest in
the southeastern portion of the salar. They calculated total lithium reserves as 5,500,000 tonnes.

The magnesium/lithium ratio is high at 22/1.

Other salares, also found as the result of shrinkage by evaporation from a Lake Minchin of Pleistocene age,
include the large salares of Emprexa and Coiposa with spot samples grading up to 370 and 580 ppm Li
respectively.


(h) Argentinia

Continental Brines:


After failing to negotiate a satisfactory agreement with the Bolivian Government regarding the possible
development of the Salar de Uyuni, FMC, in 1995, negotiated rights to the Salar de Hombre Muerto in
Argentina.

The salar, with a salt nucleus covering 280km2 but at an altitude of over 4,000 metres has a relatively low
lithium content but with a very low concentration of “impurities”, in particular an exceptionally low
magnesium/lithium ratio of only 1.37/1.

The company opted for a proprietary recovery technique involving selective absorption from in-situ brine.
There were major capital and operating cost over-runs and carbonate production was suspended for a few
years in the early 2000’s although chloride production continued. The company became reliant upon
Chile’s SQM for carbonate but this contract is thought to have expired in 2007.

The brine grades 0.062% Li and proved and probable reserves to a depth of 70m total 850,000 tonnes.

Admiralty Resources, an Australian company plans to commence production of carbonate, chloride and
hydroxide in 2008 from the Salar de Rincon. The company will also produce potash at an initial rate of
about 60,000 tpa.

The salar is located at an altitude of 3,740 metres. The salt nucleus covers 280km2 and the brine grades
0.033%Li and 0.624%K. The Mg/Li ratio is about 8.6/1.


9.
Proved and probable insitu reserves are 1,860,000 tonnes Li.

Numerous other salares exist in the Argentinian altiplano and these are listed below –


Area Km2 Reputed av.grade (mg/lt)

Pastos Grandes 29 384
Centenario 59 231
Rotones 38 461
Pazuelos 57 257
Cauchari 44 414
Olaroz 140 306
Antofalla 518 150


The extent to which these salares have been studied is not known. For comparative purposes, Rincon
concentrations (expressed as mg/lt) ranged from 370 to 456.




(k) Chile

Continental Brines:


The Salar de Atacama, at an altitude of 2,300 metres, is located approximately 200 kms inland from the
Pacific coast. The basin covers an area of about 3,000 km2 with a salt nucleus covering 1,400 km2. At the
northern end of the nucleus a drill hole was still in salt when terminated at 1,000 metres.

The Salar was first developed by Foote Minerals in partnership with CORFO, a Government agency, in
1984. Subsequently CORFO sold its interest to Foote and later Foote was acquired by Cyprus Minerals
then by Chemetall and finally by Rockwood Holdings.

To the writers knowledge the reserve data were never published but are estimated at 500,000 tonnes Li
prior to the commencement of production. The company co-produces about 80,000 tpa of potassium
chloride.

In 1986, Amax Exploration together with a Chilean partner reached an agreement with CORFO regarding
the possible development of much of the rest of the salar but their rights were later acquired by Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (SQM) a major producer of nitrates and iodine.

The initial reserves, over 790km2, were calculated at 26.0 million tonnes of potassium and 1.8 million
tonnes of lithium at an average grade of 0.18%Li. These were in respect of the uppermost 40 metres of the
aquifer.

SQM developed the project in two phases. The first in the area of highest grades of potassium for the
production of potassium chloride and lithium, the second in an area of high sulphate values from which
they recover potassium sulphate and boric acid. Lithium, currently, is recovered only from the more
southerly well field/solar pond system although the feed grade at the northern location, at about 0.11% Li is
considerably higher than those at the Argentinian salares.


10.

Large quantities of lithium are returned to the salar as the quantities of brine pumped to produce in excess
of 800,000 tpa of the two potash products contain much more lithium than the installed lithium pond and
plant capacity.

In 2008 SQM (personal communication) revised the reserve estimate for its block of claims resulting from
the inclusion of brine to a depth of 200 metres. This new estimate is for 77.2 million tonnes of potassium
and 6.0 million tonnes Li.

The total reserves of the Salar de Atacama are unknown. In addition to the tonnages beneath the
Rockwood and SQM mining claims covering 957km2, there are “buffer zones” between the properties
covering approximately 100 km2 and there are unclaimed areas to the north of the SQM claims with lithium
values in excess of those in the Argentinian salares. A tentative total for these other areas is 400,000 tonnes
Li taking the total to 6.9 million tonnes.

Other Chilean salares includingPedernales, Punta Negra, Maricunga and Incahuasi, are lithium containing.




(l) China


Changing names and ownerships together with differing reserve estimates for the same deposits by
different authorities reduce the reliabilities of the estimates contained in this paper. Hopefully, a more
accurate estimate will emerge in time.

Pegmatites:


Major known pegmatites are Jiajika now owned by Sichuan Mineral Industry (480,000 Li), Maerkang
(reserves variously reported at 80,000 and 225,000 tonnes Li) owned by Sichuan Ni and Co, , Daoxian
(125,000 tonnes) and Lushi (9,000 tonnes) owned by Sterling Group Ventures and Sichuan Dexin’s mine at
Jumehuan (50,000 tonnes). Reserve information in respect of other deposits including Ningdu, Kokotay is
not available.

A conservative estimate of Chinese pegmatite reserves in 750,000 tonnes and many of these sources
provide feed for chemical production.


Continental Brines:


Located in the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province are approximately 33 saline lakes. The first to be
developed was Chaeran, one of a complex of nine lakes and is now the principal source of potash in China.
The company, Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co. has recently announced plans to recover lithium from the
bitterns from the potash operation. The grade and tonnage of the bitterns are not known. Production of
lithium from other lakes in the area was delayed because of the technical problems associated with brines
with magnesium/lithium ratios as high as between 40 and 60/1. However, CITIC is now coming on stream
at the Taijanaier Lakes where reserves are stated to total 940,000 tonnes Li.




11.



Figures as high as 3.3 million tonnes of lithium have been quoted for the reserves of the Qaidam Basin as a
whole but specific reserve data is lacking.

A larger number of saline lakes exist on the Tibetan Plateau.

At Zhabuye (also known as Chabyer?) Salt Lake production started in 2005 from a brine grading 0.12%Li.
The company claims a reserve of 1.53 million tonnes Li (8.3 million tonnes of carbonate) but other sources
say that the tonnage is significantly lower.

Sterling Group Ventures estimate reserves at Dangxiongscuo (DXC) Salt Lake, which they intend
developing as 170,000 tonnes Li.

A total brine reserve of 2.6 million tonnes is estimated for China but it seems probable that this figure could
increase substantially with more information.






VI RESERVE AND RESOURCE SUMMARY


In the National Research Council report the authors adopted their own definitions of reserves and resources
ranging from reserves proven by systematic exploration to resources where economic lithium extraction
was probably dependent upon the marketing of co-products or the development of new technologies.

Stricter classifications require that the term ‘reserves’ apply only to material that can be economically
produced at the time of determination. The term also implies that the material can be extracted with
existing technology at a specific price-usually the prevailing market price.

Neither technologies nor prices are ‘fixed’ and this report is written at a time when a major increase in
demand seems a strong possibility.

Potential large scale consumers need to know what could be available over a long period whether a
particular source is fully proven or not.

The report lists a total of 28.5 million tonnes of lithium, equivalent to nearly 150.0 million tonnes of
lithium carbonate – equal to 1775 years of supply at the current rate of demand (approximately 16,000 tpa
Li).

Lithium in pegmatites, continental brines, geothermal brines, oilfield brines and hectorites total 7.6 million,
17.7 million, 0.3 million, 0.75 million and 2.0 million tonnes respectively.

Lithium at current or planned pegmatite operations, assuming that 60% of the Chinese pegmatites are
active, totals 840,000 tonnes and at active or proposed brine operation totals 12.25 million tonnes.




12.





TABLE I PEGMATITES


Pegmatites: Tonnes Li


North Carolina Former operations 230,000
North Carolina Undeveloped 2,600,000 *

Barraute, Quebec 90,000
Bernic Lake, Manitoba 18,600
Others, Canada 147,000

Bikita, Zimbabwe 56,700 *
Manono, Zaire 2,300,000 *


Greenbushes, Western Australia 223,000
Mount Marion, Western Australia 19,800
Mount Catlin, Western Australia 20,000

Koralpa, Austria 100,000
Larritta, Finland 14,000
Various, Russia 1,000,000
Brazil, Minas Gerais & Ceara 85,000

China 750,000

* Tonnages in the 1976 report reduced by 25% for open pit and 50% for underground mining






TABLE II BRINES AND HECTORITE


Continental Brines:

Silver Peak, Nevada 40,000

Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia 5,500,000
Salar de Hombre Muerto, Argentina 850,000
Salar de Rincon, Argentina 1,860,000
Salar de Atacama, Chile 6,900,000

China & Tibet 2,600,000



13.

Geothermal Brines:


Brawley, Southern California 316,000



Oilfield Brines:


Smackover Formation USA 750,000



Hectorites:


McDermitt Caldera Oregon/Nevada 2,000,000



In the 1976 report the figures for pegmatite reserves and resources represented in situ tonnages reduced by
75% for open-pittable deposits and 50% for probably underground operations. The Panel estimated that
these deductions were sufficiently large to cover all mining, concentrating and chemical processing losses.
These sources are indicated by an asterisk in Table I.

In this paper all other tonnages are in situ tonnages.

For other pegmatites the deductions should be comparable but for brines the recoveries will vary
considerably. In the case of continental brines initially processed by solar concentration and involving
precipitation of salts such as sodium chloride and potassium chloride the initial ‘loss’ of brine entrained in
the precipitated salt is substantial. However, this is not a permanent loss. The chemistry and nature of the
precipitated salts varies with the brine feed so the losses will vary at different operations. At the Salar de
Hombre Muerto in Argentina there are no entrainment losses.

Losses associated with the potential recovery of lithium from geothermal and oilfield brines and from
hectorites are not known yet.

Regarding production costs, evidence indicates that those at the Salar de Atacama are the lowest and that
brines with a high magnesium content will incur higher costs. Pegmatites, based on the abandonment of
North Carolina are obviously a more expensive source but with lithium carbonate prices now double those
that were current when the North American producers moved south, Chinese producers may not have to
abandon their pegmatite sources as a result of being uneconomic. Two non-Chinese companies are
considering production from spodumene.

Costs from geothermal brines, oilfield brines and hectorities have not yet been determined.

The tonnages listed are large but they don’t represent the total lithium that may become available. Few, if
any, known pegmatites have been fully explored, more remain to be discovered. Only one oilfield brine is
included in the total, only one geothermal brine and only one hectorite deposit is included.



14.
VII REFERENCES



Anon (1976) “Lithium Resources & Requirements by the Year 2000” U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1005.
James D. Vine, Editor.

Ballivian, O., and Risacher, F. (1981) “Los Salares Altiplano Boliviano” O.R.S.T.O.M. Paris.

Collins, A.G. (1976) “Lithium Abundance in Oilfield Waters” U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1005.

Duyvesterin, W.P.C. (1972) “Recovery of Base Metals from Geothermal Brines” Geothermics Journal of
Geothermal Research and its Applications, Vol.21. No.5/6 Oct-Dec.

Evans, R.K. (1978) “Lithium Reserves and Resources” Energy, Vol.3. No.3.

Evans, R.K. (1986) “Western World Lithium Reserves and Resources”, The Institute of Metals.
Aluminium-Lithium Alloys III. Proceedings of the 1985 Conference.

Roberts, F.I. (2004) “Mineralization of the Woolgangie-Yilma Area, Eastern Goldfields Granite-
Greenstone Terraine” Geological Survey Western Australia, Record 2004/6

Tahil, W. (2007) “The Trouble with Lithium” Meridian International Research










Acknowledgment

The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance of many individuals and companies who have
contributed information for inclusion in this report.











15.

[Kablooie]

12. Why don't they make batteries out of CO2 instead? Lots of that around.