What Will the Rest of the World Do If Saudi Oil Runs Out Early?

[bemildred]

Consider the source.

But what if these numbers are wrong? If someone cast doubt on the depth of reserves held by the Federal Reserve system, there would be a financial crisis.

Within the oil industry, such doubts are starting to emerge about exactly how reliable these forecasts are. Matthew Simmons, a US banker, says: "Until an independent third party conducts an independent reserve audit, the whole world would be wise to cast doubt on the quality of reliability of these numbers."

Mr Simmons, the chairman and chief executive of a Texan energy investment bank, is calling for a new global standard of transparency for all serious oil and gas producers. He argues that 90 per cent of Saudi Arabia's oil comes from just five or six fields - of which the three most important were established before 1950.

He points out that reserves estimates have risen from 110 billion to 160 billion in 26 years without major new discoveries. He warns that Saudi oil production may be close to peaking, pointing to the increasing use of high-pressurised water to maintain production in some fields.

RigZone

[amazona]

1. if the oil runs out early it's coal

If you think oil is dirty, ain't seen nothing yet.

The conservation movement is a breeding ground of communists
and other subversives. We intend to clean them out,
even if it means rounding up every birdwatcher in the country.
--John Mitchell, US Attorney General 1969-72

[bemildred]

2. Coal fired SUVs should be an interesting spectacle. nt

[AZCat]

5. They would use coal-liquefaction

My reference is "Powerplant Technology", by M. M. Wakil (copyright 1984), section 4-11 (pages 157-158).

Coal liquefaction is the conversion of coal into a liquid fuel for direct energy production or a liquid substitute for refinery feedstock from which other liquid fuels may be obtained.

Coal-liquefaction technology, first researched in the 1920s and 1930s, was stimulated in both Germany and Japan by World War II. Japan produced aviation gasoline in a large plant in North Korea with converted coke from coal to calcium carbide in electric furnaces, then to acetylene, acetaldehyde, butyraldehyde, octanol, and finally octane. In a plant in Taiwan, the Japanese also used starch from root vegetables which they fermented to butanol, which was then converted to butyraldehyde, octanol, and octane. The most important German processes were the Bergius, which is no longer in use, and the Fischer-Tropsch process, which is still used commercially by the Union of South Africa's SASOL Corporation. South Africa has no indigenous oil of its own but has coal. Thanks to coal liquefaction, it is completely independent of foreign oil.

Long, complex hydrocarbon molecular chains have a lower hydrogen-carbon atomic ratio than shorter molecules, like that of octane. In coal liquefaction, the long molecules are shortened by adding hydrogen. The needed hydrogen is generated, and desulfurization is accomplished, in the same manner as for coal gasification. The Fischer-Tropsh process first produces a mixture of CO and H2 from coal and steam. This is followed by catalytic reactions at about 300 deg. F (150 deg. C) and 150 bar, which yield a range of hydrocarbons from gaseous methane to higher liquid hydrocarbons. These are then separated with methane going as pipeline gas and the rest going to different liquid fuels.

Some half-dozen new processes are currently under development in pilot plants. Scaling these up to commercial sizes is one of the major problems. Another problem, as in coal gasification, is the large demand for water that restricts the use of the large western coal reserves in the United States, which are not located near large supplies of water.
</quote>

[bemildred]

9. Oh, I believe it.

It's a lot more feasible than the seabed methane stuff (IMHO).
And there is still a hell of a lot of coal.
But the environmental issues will be something to see.

[AZCat]

10. The environmental concerns are indeed important

Coal mining isn't the most environmentally friendly extraction, unfortunately, but I have yet to see any hard data on pollution from coal-liquifaction (or coal gasification) processes.

I did find a paper on clean diesel production using the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis in Microsoft Word Document format. The page from where the paper can be accessed is here, and the paper is the one written by Professor Yong-Wang Li. I haven't read it yet (just skimmed) but it looks interesting, at least.

[bemildred]

11. Well pollution is an issue, Hg and all that, but it was the

greenhouse stuff that I think is going to be more difficult.
They are going to have to do carbon sequestration and pray a lot.
And I don't know if we will ever get our collective shit together
enough to do that on the scale required. We live in interesting times.

[AZCat]

12. I have my doubts.

Unfortunately it's possible that all the efforts in the world aren't enough - nobody really knows what the effect of our past behavior has been and there's no way to predict what is next (even assuming all CO2 production flatlines).

[bemildred]

13. Yup. We are way past worrying about the "precautionary principle".

Fifty years ago, we could have done that. Now it's Mr Toad's wild ride
for all of us.

[Strelnikov_]

14. If We Ignore Greenhouse Gas Issues, It Could Be Possible

The EROEI for coal liquefaction is noted as between 0.5 and 8.2 (say 7.0). If it is to replace conventional petroleum with an EROEI of 20, the gross energy yielded from synthetic oil would have to be 110.8% of petroleum to yield the same net energy.

In 2000, the US consumed 38.40 Quad of petroleum-derived energy. To replace the 60% imported portion of this energy source, the gross energy yielded from synthetic oil would have to be 25.53 Quad (38.40 x 0.60 x 1.108).

In 2000, the US consumed 22.65 Quad of coal-derived energy. Since coal liquefaction is 60% efficient, and assuming average efficiency of 34% for current combustion based coal power plants, coal production would have to be increased at least 64% from 2000 levels. This seems to be in line with statements I have seen that US coal production would have to double to replace conventional petroleum with synthetic.

Problems are that coal is still a fossil, non-renewable fuel. Also, if the EROEI continues to decline for coal as many predict and/or the EROEI for coal liquefaction is nearer the lower low end of the estimate range the possibility of maintaining current energy supply levels becomes problematic.

[AZCat]

15. Interesting information

Thanks for posting this - I hadn't seen the EROEI for coal-liquefaction.

I don't know how probable a shift to a reliance on domestic coal (as opposed to foreign oil) is but I agree, it doesn't solve the carbon-cycle issues. We still need to approach the problem from different directions - expanding alternative energy sources, promoting conservation - not just work to shift which fossil fuel we are using.

[amandabeech]

22. We could probably get along with much less than 38.40 Quads of

petroleum derived energy, if we had to.

Here are some ways:

1. Walk

2. Ride Bicycles

3. Take public transport, where available, including short trips on interstate trains and buses instead of flying or driving by yourself.

4. Car pool and ride share.

5. Use all-electric and hybrid-electric vehicles charged with off-peak electric energy.

6. Increase overall fuel efficiency in transport.

7. Drive more slowly.

8. Decrease reliance on relatively inefficient long-distance and middle-distance trucking and rely more on rail and water transit even if it means building more infrastructure, rolling stock and ships/barges.

9. Move production of more goods to regional plants.

10. Eat locally grown food when available--including the great veggies that you can grow in your back yard.

11. If sufficient electric power is available, begin to electrify heavily used rail lines and additional commuter lines.


Gee, '70s deja vu all over again.

[NNadir]

24. Ah, but in the seventies, polyester suits and all, people were more

sensible than they are now.

We baby boomers, who started out so well, have to have been the most abysmally disappointing generation of the twentieth century.

Your list is an excellent one by the way. Few of the things listed will happen, but the list is good.

[amandabeech]

25. Thank you, NNadir. And I agree with you.

We baby boomers are a wretched bunch.

I don't think that our children and grandchildren will want to support us in our old age because we've screwed up so radically.

[amandabeech]

23. They will try to wring some gas and diesel out of the oil shale

in Wyoming, Utah and Colorado using technology developed for the Canadian tar sands, coupled with high-level waste-water treatment so that the water needed can be reused rather than constantly taken from the Colorado system. Nonetheless, it will be a very messy project.

If things get really bad, there may be an attempt to use the Eastern oil shale that increases volume by 2X when hydrotreated and the mining of which also brings up reasonable amounts of uranium and vanadium. The richest deposits are in Tennessee, I believe.

There is a federal study out discussing this. If anyone's interested, I'll see if I can find the link.

The EROEI on the oil shale may turn out to exceed 1 to 1, if they're lucky, but they will try again like they did in the '70s and early '80s.

Oil shale. Fuel of the future and always will be.

[htuttle]

18. "Pipe down and keep shoveling, son"

"It's another three miles to the grocery store."

[phantom power]

3. My theory is that the real players already know it's worse

than they are letting on.

America is moving to gain control of the mid-east oil by force, because we are intellectually and ethically bankrupt. Countries like Iran are frantically trying to obtain nuclear-power status, in an attempt to fend us off. Europe is focusing more on renewables and nuclear, maybe because they know they can't take the US on directly (and/or because they are smarter) China has it's own energy reserves, but they are banking on nuclear too.

[Strelnikov_]

8. Fully Agree. While The Sheeple Accept The 'Recovering Economy'

prole feed, the final Great Game is being played in their names behind the scenes.

My understanding is that Simmons contracted with Halliburton while Cheney was there, and he was also part of Cheney's energy task force.

[texastoast]

4. What about Siberia?

I heard there is a boatload (ahem) of oil there. Trouble is the ports freeze, and the tankers can't get in for months at a time. Thus, the desire for peaceful Middle Eastern lands through which to lay a pipeline.

Hmm, if Saudi is already doing water injection, then it ain't long until the oil is gone and the water tables ruined. (Spoken like a true West Texan, if I do say so muhself.)

[Boomer]

6. Aha!!

>> Trouble is the ports freeze, and the tankers can't get in for months at a time. <<

So that's why * & Cronies don't care about global warming. They WANT the world's temperature to rise so they can access the oil.

[texastoast]

7. LOL!

But how would that put money in their pockets before they are dead? It will take at least 30 more years before we have sufficient melt to help out the Siberian ports in the winter. By then, I would hope they will have grown enough to recognize and regret the wickedness of their evil ways and what kind of legacy they will have left their grandchildren. (Nah. Dreaming again.)

But you might be onto something, but I'm thinking more from a commercial real estate angle. (Remembering the first Superman movie with Chris Reeve when Lex Luthor wanted to collapse California along the San Andreas fault line. I bet Bush just LUVS Lex.)

[NickB79]

16. You thaw the ports, you thaw the permafrost

And then your entire oil-well infrastructure sinks into the newly formed Siberian swamp that was once frozen tundra. You can't very well drill for oil with your buildings and oil derrecks collapsing around you.

[happyslug]

17. Soviet Oil Production Peaked in 1987

Two years later the Soviet Union Collapsed. The Former Soviet Union had maintained its Empire and Army based on its access to Oil, with the decline in oil production the Soviet Union had to do something, it could NOT cut domestic Spending for Domestic Spending had been sacrificed since the 1920s, the Soviet Union had to pay its foreign Loans in order to be able to get more loans, thus it had to cut its military. The Cuts in the Military lead to the coup that ended up resulting in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Now Russian in 1987 and today is a exporter of Oil. Russia is exporting as much oil today as it did in the late 1980, but does this based on its almost complete cut in oil used by its Military and decrease Domestic usage. How long can the Russians do this is unknown but here is a guess:
http://www.asponews.org/ASPO.newsletter.031.php#212

[One_Life_To_Give]

19. Panic, Famine, War

Have you seen the movie "Road Warrior"?

[Strelnikov_]

20. “For Reasons Long Forgotten, Two Mighty Warrior Tribes Went To War . .”

Sounds like George Miller was thinking about the post peak oil ‘last man standing’ scenario 25 years ago.


“My life fades, the vision dims, all that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams, this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the Road Warrior. The man we called Max.

To understand who he was you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel, and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel.

Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They had built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered, and stopped. Their leaders talked, and talked, and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear.

Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage, would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice.

And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed, men like Max, the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine he lost everything. He became a shell of a man, a burnt-out desolate man. A man haunted by the demons in his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again."

Opening Dialogue, “The Road Warrior”, 1981

[bemildred]

21. Growth of Russian oil supply slowing, IEA reports

THE growth in the supply of non-Opec crude is showing signs of weakening as Siberia’s oil production boom is coming to an end, the International Energy Agency reported yesterday.

After the fourth consecutive fall in Russia’s oil output and a slowdown in growth plans from the major Siberian producers, the West’s leading energy forecaster predicted a contraction in the rate of growth in Siberian production this year.

---

Weakness in output from Canada, Norway and the Gulf of Mexico has added to a picture of lower non-Opec supplies in 2005, causing the agency to reduce its forecast by 175,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the agency sees evidence that Opec producers are reining in production in line with pledges made at the cartel’s meeting in December. At the same time, demand from Asia continues to rise and the agency now expects the world to consume an extra 1.52 million barrels of crude per day this year.

Times UK