Season's first tropical depression forms

[phantom power]

Nature is jumping the gun a bit this year, with the season's first tropical depression forming four days before the official start to hurricane season. The area of disturbed weather (91L) that we've been watching, about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity and spin to be classified as a tropical depression. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph. Satellite estimates (using a cloud pattern recognition method called the "Dvorak" technique) were saying this was a tropical depression this morning, though, so the NHC elected to upgrade the system.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25°C) and has wind shear of 5 - 10 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Friday, when the system will likely move over waters too cold to support intensification. TD One is not a threat to any land areas. I give the storm a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1232

[SCantiGOP]

1. great

My daughter is at camp the second week in June so my wife and I have booked a cottage on the NC coast. I assumed early June was safe.

[phantom power]

2. I think you'll be fine. Even if it becomes a TS, it is not expected to make landfall.

[SCantiGOP]

3. I know

it's just depressing to think the season is starting this soon.

[Dead_Parrot]

4. You mean TD1's formed...

...faster than expected?

Shocker.

[phantom power]

5. I have this recollection...

that the Mighty Hurricane Season Of 2005 started out that way.

"Wow, that didn't take long."

[XemaSab]

7. I should make a sockpuppet

with a "slower than expected" signature line and never post anything.

PS My friend D. hooked me up with the NZ field guide! :woohoo:

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Cool...

...now all you have to do is learn how to pronounce "Kotuku ngutupapa" after six pints of Speights and you're all set. :)

[XemaSab]

9. No worries...

"Issaspponbilwithablackbeak."

Howzzat?

[Dead_Parrot]

10. Close enough...

;)

[happyslug]

6. The National Hurricane center claims it is NOT expected to form

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Through the above is an active cite, NOAA will change it if needed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



List of 2009 Hurricane names:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml