What do you expect from Copenhagen?

[phantom power]

Poll question: What do you expect from Copenhagen?

For reference:

"deep" == something like 80%
"moderate" == something like 30%
"minor" == something like 10%

As usual, my choice of poll options turns out to be subjective, except for "puppies" which are an Objective Good.

[slackmaster]

1. slackmaster's bold, dire predictions for the next three years...

First, to answer the poll question:

The Copenhagen conference will result in minor commitments with s much weasel room and lack of "teeth" that it really won't make any difference.

Now the hard part, future events over which nobody has any control or any way of accurately predicting:

The winters of 2010-2011 and 2010-2012 will be exceptionally hard and cold in the Northern Hemisphere. This is not out of line with the predictions of climate models, nor would it be unusual given the inherently chaotic nature of weather. It may be caused by a series of volcanic eruptions, a disruption in solar flux, or some other unpredictable force.

Although it will have been just a perturbation, two consecutive harsh winters will so devastate public support for greenhouse gas emission controls that whatever agreement comes out of Copenhagen will be shredded in the popular media. The global economy will still be weak, and people will put that at the top of their priorities. Having banked on that support for climate controls for his re-election bid, President Obama will have a very hard fight on his hands in the 2012 election.

The winter of 2012-2013 will bring a return to the decline in polar ice caps and glaciers, rising sea temperatures, etc. The debate over anthropogenic climate change will be set back to about where it was in the late 1990s, and the whole process will start over.

Unrest in the Middle East will continue as usual. Religious extremists of all stripes will attack innocent civilians. There will be more wars.

[stuntcat]

2. probably

I tried to act hopeful on the poll!! but yeah

[Birthmark]

4. I agree with the first part of your analysis.

"The Copenhagen conference will result in minor commitments with s much weasel room and lack of "teeth" that it really won't make any difference."

But don't we have to give them time to negotiate with the climate? :sarcasm:

[cloudbase]

3. Great minty flavor

without having to light up.

[joshcryer]

5. I voted "circle jerk" because the emission reduction commitments are already looking...

...to be barely anything beyond what already would have happened were COP15 not to even happen.

[Nihil]

6. Voted for "Minor with weasel room" as an overall option but ...

... I think it will be something between "Committment to minor emissions cuts,
with weasel room" and "Resolution that emissions cuts would be nice to get
around to someday" depending on which country is doing the talking.

Any "committment" would be so small (even without weaselling) that the effective
difference between the two options is minimal.

No, I am not being optimistic.

[GliderGuider]

7. I voted "nice to get around to" because

I feel that will be the underlying intent of the resolution, no matter what its final wording.

There's so much evidence (hacks and leaks) of powerful supranational forces arrayed against any agreement. The gloves are finally coming off, and not surprisingly it's the obstructionists who are resorting to direct action.

This is actually a good sign. As Gandhi said, “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” They are now fighting us.

[FBaggins]

8. I'm confused

The sixth and seventh options are the same thing.

[phantom power]

9. Yeah, they kind of are...

I guess the "circle jerk" option was meant to mean some thing like "epic fail -- no agreement of any kind"

I've never yet posted a poll where I didn't regret something about my options. It's my "zen-archery" approach to editing.

[joshcryer]

10. I saw it differently, 6th is "we know there's a problem and will get to it," the 7th is...

..."we know there is a problem and we're working on it."

Distinctly different because the latter means that actually fixing the problem is put in the minds of the masses.