"A radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation"

[Louisiana1976]

A new atmospheric circulation pattern called the "Arctic rapid change pattern" or the "Arctic dipole" has emerged in the past several years according to Dr. Jeff Masters.

"The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere."

snip

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/12/813562/-A-Radical-Shift-of-the-Arctic-Atmospheric-Circulation-Climate-Change-Reality

[peacebird]

1. The changes are accelerating and more feedback loops are adding fuel to the fire

Meanwhile Governments play merry tunes on their fiddles at Copenhagen, acting as though we have the luxury of time.

sigh...

[nilram]

8. gracious, the caviar is tasty this year, isn't it?

-- A little more bubbly?
-- No, no, I have to govern...

[phantom power]

2. I admit to being curious about how an ice-free arctic is going to affect weather systems.

Anybody who has ever lived near the Great Lakes can tell you that there is a big damn difference between the weather when the lakes are frozen versus when they are open.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. My money's on a turning and turning, widening gyre

Do they get falcons up there?

[nilram]

9. ooh, ooh, what are the differences?

I've always lived on the west coast. Is the weather milder when there's no ice? That's my guess...

[phantom power]

14. A lot less precipitation when the lakes are iced over...

Unsurprisingly, air masses pick up much less moisture over ice than open water. So, I would expect that whatever arctic air masses are up there will pick up a lot more moisture. I assume that will result in more precip somewhere, but I don't know where or how.

[bhikkhu]

4. the sort of thing that indicates a tipping point has gone by

It will be interesting to see if the circulation pattern stabilizes recognizably.

[Goldstein1984]

5. Probably a lot of surprises

This is going to be a wild ride.

Another on the list of things our "leaders" are incapable of addressing.

At least climate change is change you can believe in.

[Gregorian]

6. As complex a this system is the number of modes of melting alone will astonishing.

It is not going to turn around. The question I have is whether there will be some plateau, or intermediate equilibrium. I seriously doubt it. And I have always believed that the situation is far worse than it appears at the present. It seems trivial to say this, but ice does not melt at 32 degrees F. It must be warmer than that. In other words, we must be over the line a bit before anything happens. To see what is happening now means we're way way over that line. And we will, and are, seeing more modes of melting. And more modes of positive feedback. For all we know, during times of great carbon dioxide production, negative feedback systems may have been working to our benefit. We may have been in trouble a half century ago. And I know it's all documented data. But no one actually knows the complete details of this ecological system. I find this quite frustrating. To think that on one hand billions of people are all trying to survive, and to create a thriving economy. Yet the only way to turn this disaster around is to do the opposite of what we've been doing. That is, shrink.

[hootinholler]

7. Isn't 1C = 34F?

Or in that neighborhood, which is warm for the arctic.

-Hoot

[Viking12]

11. They're referring to temp change, not the thermometer reading

1.8C = 1F

[GliderGuider]

12. So close...

1C = 1.8F

[Viking12]

13. I shouldn't post before I have my coffee.

I meant to type 1.8C = F

[nilram]

10. Beautiful last line of the Kos article ...

Due to the methane gases being released...

"The IPCC may have significantly underestimated the rate and intensity of Arctic warming."

Lovely.