Loser: Why the Chevy Volt Will Fizzle

[wtmusic]

"Sometimes a project fails even though the technology it pioneers is destined to conquer the world. Take Babbage’s steam-era computer, Pioneer Electronics’ LaserDisc home video system, or Apple’s Newton—technically brilliant, yet business failures all.

Better yet, take General Motors’ Chevrolet Volt, a car known as a plug-in hybrid because it will get most of its power from the wall socket in a garage. The Volt is bold, cool, and technically feasible. It appeals to early adopters, and it’s catnip for the automotive fan mags. To cap it off, a little creative accounting gives it the sheen of sky-high mileage, the better to offset GM’s gas-guzzlers and thus meet future fuel efficiency targets.

GM, stung by the failure of its EV1 all-electric car of yesteryear, has put its considerable corporate muscle into the Volt, building the car into a game-changing breakthrough. But to succeed on those terms, it’ll have to become a mass-market car—anything less wouldn’t make enough of a difference to a company that, even in its postbankrupt state, still remains the second-biggest automaker in the world. And at a projected price of US $40 000, cosmic success just isn’t going to happen."

http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/advanced-cars/loser-why-the-chevy-volt-will-fizzle

[frazzled]

1. LaserDisc was awesome

It went nowhere.

Beta should have been the standard over VHS: it was far superior.

It's a damned shame that GM is going to repeat history here ... because of greed? The Prius hybrid was a great success not just because of its (then) new technology, but because they sold it at what was probably a loss-leader price to gain market appeal and dominance. We paid 1/2 of what the Volt cost for a Prius. Volt will be marketed as a plaything for the wealthy. Stupid.

This article is right: they will fail.

[obliviously]

2. Wouldn't it mean more electric power plants?

[wtmusic]

3. eventually, yes. nt

[madokie]

4. Lots of spinning reserve in the evenings when a majority of the owners

are believed to be recharging the batteries. The power companies should love the idea of a plug-in auto fleet just for that reason alone. it will only add to their bottom line. Its not like some power plant can produce different amounts of power at the drop of a hat. The nuke and coal plants especially have to continue spinning no matter how much of their product is being sold and it takes energy to keep them babies turning. As the power demand increases the load on the generator increases which increases the load on the prime mover but they still have that initial load, whatever it is. Natural gas and hydro lend themselves to being turned on and off rather than continue spinning even when they aren't really needed. Plug in vehicles would be a big step in the right direction for global warming.

[Terry in Austin]

7. Present plants could handle 70% - 84% of fleet

According to a study by DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, "84% of today's cars, pick-up trucks and SUVs could be charged off-peak on today's power grid without building new capacity."

The figure was later hedged downward to a more cautious 70%, but that's still a lot of fleet we can convert to electric without having to build more power plants.

[joshcryer]

8. Electrical emissions would go up, but overall emissions would be down.

So if anyone tries arguing that point the efficiency of electric cars should be stressed.

[Statistical]

11. more? no. use current plants more? yes.

currently overnight output is 25% of peak load.

There is billions and billions of kwh of capacity overnight.

Just make smart chargers and lower rate and people will only charge their cars at night.

Design a rate say midnight to 6am = 1/2 normal electrical rate.
charger turns on at midnight car is charged by 6am.
half the cost and plants love it because they sell more watts for same plant.

Add to that electrical generation is about 40%-60% efficient vs 12%-15% internal combustion and you can see how it can be cheaper AND reduce emissions.

[tinrobot]

5. Wait and see...

The Volt may or may not fizzle, but the more important thing is that GM is building batteries, motors, and EV control systems. This will set the company up quite well for the next electric vehicle and the one after that.

[TxRider]

6. I might buy one

If I was in the market for a new car, and the cost wasn't quite so high.

But I am not, and it is.

[joshcryer]

9. They need entry level under $19000 electrics, imo.

I wouldn't touch one unless they were under $19000.

[PavePusher]

10. Friggen seriously?

"GM, stung by the failure of its EV1 all-electric car of yesteryear..."

Yeah. "37 stab wounds in the back, worst case of suicide I ever saw", is more like it. On track to be a raging success, and they crushed all their cars for being too good.


Why did we bail those turds out again?

[Statistical]

12. Volt has a $7500 fully refundable tax credit.

So the apples to apples comparison is more like $32,500.

Also operating costs assuming 80% electrical/20% gasoline mix and $4 gallon gas is about $5,000 cheaper to operate over 100K miles compared to traditional car getting 40mpg. So that brings down total cost of ownership.

[TxRider]

13. Gas is not $4 a gallon

If it was the Volt would take off.

I like the car, I'd buy one over a Prius.

But I wouldn't buy a Prius.

[Statistical]

15. It will be.

Figure someone buying a car today is likely keeping it for 6 years on average. If they are like me it will be more like 8+.

What do you think the average price of a gallon of gasoline is going to be over the next 6-8 years.

I think we will be solidly over $3 by 2011 and $4-$5 long term is very likely. If we get some kind of carbon tax (or cap & trade) that will easily add $0.75 to $1.00 to price of gas (one gallon of gasoline emits 22 pounds of CO2 when burned and requires another 8 pounds of CO2 in refining, and 12 pounds of CO2 in extraction and transport).

Of course most people don't plan and only look at sticker price. However I plan IT budgets and TCO (total cost of ownership) is very important.

I was looking more at TCO of Volt.

TCO = Selling Price + lifetime fuel + lifetime maintenance/repair + lifetime insurance + lifetime taxes/fees - tax credits - residual value.

TCO / total miles driven in lifetime = TCO per mile (which is what really matters).

[TxRider]

16. I was looking at TCO as well

I wasn't aware of the rebate though.

If gas hits $4 people will be all over it though.

[Statistical]

17. I wish I had the money to buy one as a commuter vehicle.

I would only use it to & from work.

Well if I really had the money I would buy one of these :)

[caraher]

14. Remind me never to buy an Audi

From the article in the OP:

"”There are not enough idiots who will buy it,” Johan de Nysschen, the president of Audi of America, told auto blogger Lawrence Ulrich."

Yes, I get that the extra cost of a Volt will never be made up in fuel cost savings. That does not make me an idiot for wanting one. He is the idiot, for imagining that everything can be measured in dollars and euros.