More than half of OPEC’s members are facing severe political problems, posing a threat to the group’s ability to respond to resurgent oil demand as the global economy recovers.
At any other time, such a situation would already have pushed oil prices sky high. The bull run that ended in July 2008 with crude hitting US$147 a barrel was preceded by “a simultaneous collapse” in output from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela, Prince Turki Al Faisal, the former Saudi ambassador to Washington, has pointed out.
OPEC has between 5 million and 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare production capacity, after cutting output last year in response to falling oil demand.
But analysts say most of the excess capacity could be absorbed as early as next year, leaving oil prices more sensitive to supply disruptions.
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