Li-Ion batteries pricey for 20+ years? Not so, say the people who make them

[wtmusic]

Remember this National Academy of Sciences report that predicted Li-Ion's price would keep electric cars out of the hands of most consumers until 2030?

WASHINGTON -- Costs of plug-in hybrid electric cars are high -- largely due to their lithium-ion batteries -- and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, says a new report from the National Research Council. Costs to manufacture plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2010 are estimated to be as much as $18,000 more than for an equivalent conventional vehicle. Although a mile driven on electricity is cheaper than one driven on gasoline, it will likely take several decades before the upfront costs decline enough to be offset by lifetime fuel savings. Subsidies in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars over that period will be needed if plug-ins are to achieve rapid penetration of the U.S. automotive market. Even with these efforts, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are not expected to significantly impact oil consumption or carbon emissions before 2030.

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12826

Apparently, their numbers were off - way off - for a variety of reasons:

"Yesterday, (Felix, of CalCars) Kramer asked A123 Systems, Ener1, Electrovaya and Johnson Controls-Saft how much their kWh cost is today and what their response was to the NAS study. The short version: there was broad consensus among the battery makers that the NAS numbers are too high, with Sankar Das Gupta, CEO of Electrovaya, saying that, "there are a lot of crazy reports out there." A123's Ric Fulop said that he expects his company's packs to sell for less than the NAS' 2020 price as early as 2012. Cheap packs are coming, and soon, is the message from the battery makers."

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/01/28/dc-2010-nas-li-ion-battery-cost-predictions-are-too-high-batt/

More detail, including why lithium supply won't be an issue:

http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1090.html

[phantom power]

1. Hopefully not the same way that EEStor is "coming soon"

[wtmusic]

5. There seems to be a consensus

that economy of scale will work with this tech. EEStor's claims sound too good to be true, to people that know a lot more about capacitance and dielectric materials than I do.

[gateley]

2. I recall Biden got a bill passed when he was still in the Senate to fund some

L-Ion research, in an effort to hurry the process along.

[tridim]

3. I need cheap lithium batteries for my R/C planes too.

$70/per seems just a bit excessive.

Ramp up production, no need to wait.

[kristopher]

4. Ouch!

I just wrenched my shoulder patting myself on the back.

Score one for Kristopher.