Armed with information, people make poor choices, study finds

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-03/uota-awi032910.php

Public release date: 31-Mar-2010

Contact: Bradley Love
[e-mail]
512-232-5732
http://www.utexas.edu/">University of Texas at Austin

Armed with information, people make poor choices, study finds

When faced with a choice that could yield either short-term satisfaction or longer-term benefits, people with complete information about the options generally go for the quick reward, according to new research from University of Texas at Austin psychologists.

The findings, available online in the journal Judgment and Decision Making, could help better explain the decisions people make on everything from eating right and exercising to spending more on environmentally friendly products.

"You'd think that with more information about your options, a person would make a better decision. Our study suggests the opposite," says Associate Professor Bradley Love, who conducted the research with graduate student Ross Otto. "To fully appreciate a long-term option, you have to choose it repeatedly and begin to feel the benefits."

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http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/sjdm/journal.sjdm.org/10/9923/jdm9923.html

[hobbit709]

1. The culture of instant gratification.

Nobody looks even five years down the road-not people nor corporations.

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. Some do

I was raised by my parents to put off gratification in anticipation of a future reward.

[hobbit709]

3. And you're in the minority.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. I'm painfully aware of that

All one need do is look at the money raked in by credit card companies.

I don't know if my siblings and I are mutants, or were just raised well. (It may help that our parents were children of "The Depression.")

[phantom power]

11. It's worse than culture. It's biological programming.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting

[HereSince1628]

5. Yes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Humankind has had a general sense of this tendency for generations.


This study is what eggheads like to call the painful elaboration of the obvious.

[skids]

12. A more subtle (but still obvious) point from the study...

The "Information" they are talking about is knowing what you missed out on.
They found that as the test subjects gain confidence that the long-term
choices are always going to yield more rewards, they start to choose
the long-term reward more.

I don't know why people seem intent on getting down on other people for
choosing short-term reward when we live in a world where we:

A) could get hit by a truck tomorrow.

and

B) Have no real reason to believe that a savings account will actually
earn money versus inflation, that work performance will actually be
rewarded, or that dieting will actually work this time.

Which is why spreading FUD about AGW is such an effective tactic. You
don't need to convince people, you just have to make them doubt or distrust
the messenger.

And it's also why cronyism, classism, and unpunished criminal behavior
is so incredibly toxic to the future.

All very obvious, if you are the sort to actually bother to think
about it.

[bemildred]

13. Well said.

Anyway, it's our "leaders" that are making the bad choices, they stopped consulting the public about policy a long time ago.

[Jim__]

6. "Poor choices."

In a real-life scenario, a student who stayed home to study and then learned he had missed a fun party would be less likely to study next time in a similar situation — even if that option provides more long-term benefits.

"Basically, people have to stay away from thinking about the short-term pains and gains or they are sunk and, objectively, will end up worse off," says Love.

Everything is relative. But, within a given a set of circumstances, I think the student should go to the party and have fun. He definitely gets the reward. Staying home and studying, he only has a higher probability of getting the reward, not certainty. And, if this person works hard and misses out on the fun until his career is solidly on track, he may be missing the party until he's, say, 35. At that time, the parties are not as much fun as they would have been when he was a young student.

What I get from the short article is that if you want have a long term plan, focus on that and don't think about the short-term costs. Thinking about the short-term costs will probably take you away from your plan.

If most people don't skip the short-term, sure thing, this this may well be the advantageous path.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. Carpe Diem!

And so ends our civilization.

Should I combat climate change? Or get that cool muscle car?


You may want to read the full paper: http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/sjdm/journal.sjdm.org/10/9923/jdm9923.html

[The2ndWheel]

8. Our civilization wouldn't be where it is today

if long term trumped short term.

[Jim__]

9. If you want to save civilization, you should try to understand what the study tells you.

It's very unlikely that within the next few years you're going to change the way people make choices. Climate change deniers sell their point of view by emphasizing what people will have to sacrifice in order to address it. There are tremedous advantages, some of them short-term (e.g. jobs, improved technology) that can be realized by addressing the problem. These thing need to be emphasized.

If you're going to emphasize the tremendous sacrifices people have to make, you're probably not going to be very successful in selling your program.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. However, trying to sell the necessary level of response, based on short-term gains is not sufficient

Hey! You can save money if you install CFL's!

Well, that's great! No, really! Please, install CFL's, but don't pretend that it will "change the world."

[bhikkhu]

14. ...the product of lifelong conditioning

You can always make the childish decision, because there are always adults around to fix the mess. It doesn't matter if you plan for the future, as we have such abundance someone else (or the government) will always make up for your lack of planning. There is so much abundance, you can waste all you want and someone else will produce enough to make up the difference. You can trash your body with alcohol, smoking and drugs, because we have plenty of doctors and drugs to fix you back up again. You can grow up, yet remain a child, because being funny is a more valuable social skill than being smart or productive.

[Odin2005]

15. We are conditioned to be consumerist robots.