Examining A Climate Conundrum

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126312539

Examining A Climate Conundrum

by Richard Harris
April 27, 2010

The planet hasn't heated up much in the past decade, and that has fueled some skepticism about global warming. One prominent scientist said it's a "travesty" that researchers can't explain this — especially considering that the Earth is soaking up far more energy than it's sending back into space, so it would seem the planet should be warming up. Recent research highlights this mystery — and has something to tell us about the process of science.

...

HARRIS: And it fact there are already strong hints about how this mystery will be solved. Sidney Levitus, at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, monitors the temperatures of the world's oceans using thousands of buoys that dive down to take readings. Most of the measurements have concentrated on the top 2,000 feet of the ocean and those temperature readings have not gone up in recent years.

...

Mr. SIDNEY LEVITUS (Director, Climate Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): The ocean heat content is increasing. You just have to look deep enough to find that increase.

HARRIS: He's finding evidence of warming deep in the ocean. He's still analyzing that data, so he can't yet say whether it will explain the entire paradox. But he says it will explain at least a chunk of it, and thats how science proceeds: mysteries, explanations, more questions and gradually deeper understanding.

(Transcript and audio available at the link.)

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. See also

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=242125&mesg_id=242125

[Statistical]

2. It is important that researchers be able to explain this.

They will never convince the denialists but to get any political pressure they need to convince the uninformed middle.

[joshcryer]

3. We had one of the longest solar minimums on record. I bet that contributes a lot.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. No, unfortunately, it doesn't in this case

Here's the real quandary:
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116766&org=NSF&from=news

...

Whereas satellite instruments indicate that greenhouse gases are continuing to trap more solar energy, or heat, scientists since 2003 have been unable to determine where much of that heat is going.

Either the satellite observations are incorrect, says Trenberth, or, more likely, large amounts of heat are penetrating to regions that are not adequately measured, such as the deepest parts of the oceans.

Compounding the problem, Earth's surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years. Yet melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels, indicate that heat is continuing to have profound effects on the planet.

...

As greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, satellite instruments show a growing imbalance between energy entering the atmosphere from the sun and energy leaving from Earth's surface. This imbalance is the source of long-term global warming.

...

Satellite measurements indicate that the amount of greenhouse-trapped solar energy has risen over recent years while the increase in heat measured in the top 3,000 feet of the ocean has stalled.

Although it is difficult to quantify the amount of solar energy with precision, Trenberth and Fasullo estimate that, based on satellite data, the amount of energy build-up appears to be about 1.0 watts per square meter or higher, while ocean instruments indicate a build-up of about 0.5 watts per square meter.

That means about half the total amount of heat is unaccounted for.

...

"Global warming at its heart is driven by an imbalance of energy: more solar energy is entering the atmosphere than leaving it," Fasullo says.

"Our concern is that we aren't able to entirely monitor or understand the imbalance. This reveals a glaring hole in our ability to observe the build-up of heat in our climate system."

...