Atlantic Current Subduction Zones Drop From 12 To 2 As Conveyer Falters

[hatrack]

"Powerful ocean currents are grinding slowly to a halt, raising the possibility of a catastrophic climate "flip" that could chill Europe and warm New Zealand, startling new evidence suggests.

Scientists have detected evidence of a slowdown in the ocean currents that control climate worldwide, supporting earlier research on the threats of global warming. Without these currents, parts of the globe are expected to alter dramatically. The climate in Europe would cool significantly, while New Zealand would be warmer and more susceptible to exotic diseases, scientists suggest.

The powerful ocean current system, often known as the ocean conveyor, creates a flow of warm surface water towards the North Atlantic, where it is cooled and sinks to start the circulation of cool deep-sea water throughout the world's oceans. As part of this process, large "chimneys" of very cold water spiral to the ocean floor, playing a key role in ocean flows.

But Cambridge University ocean physicist and Polar Ocean Physics Group head Professor Peter Wadhams has released research showing the number of these chimneys has declined from about 12 to two as a result of global warming. Releasing the research to a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna last month, Professor Wadhams said the disappearance of the chimneys, reducing the circulation of the oceans, would cool the climate of Northern Europe as less warm water flowed to the region. Other oceanographers have stressed that Professor Wadhams' findings are only one piece of a complex puzzle."

EDIT

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10328565

[smoogatz]

1. All predicted by climatologists years ago

as part of the global warming model. But of course it's all just a big fraud visited on conservatives by millionaire liberal professors who hate SUVs.

Anyway, the fallout will be interesting. There were mini-icebergs in the English channel during Shakespeare's lifetime, y'know. And what will it do to the wine industry?

[Warpy]

2. Get used to South African and Australian wines

some of which are very good. That's assuming you'll be able to afford them, that you won't have to pack a sack full of clothing and carry a few pots and pans and join a huge migration of climate refugees, yourself.

Yes, it will be interesting. It will also be fatal for a lot of us.

[smoogatz]

7. Chilean wines are very good, too

and they're growing a number of heirloom grape varieties that were wiped out by blight in Europe, early in the 20th century.

Hey, we live in Wisconsin--it could get a little warmer here. Fine with me!

[phantom power]

3. I now have to schedule the disasters to worry about, by day.

Friday is supposed to be "atlantic conveyor failure day", but I guess I can trade places with "fatal influenza epidemic day", or "peak oil day".

[Dogmudgeon]

5. Then treat the members of your Jati well

You could be getting a number of chances to see the Clear Light over the next few millennia, just as KSR's characters do in Years of Rice and Salt -- or our own version, Years of Ice and Flu.

(Yep. A quarter way through the book.)

--p!

[phantom power]

6. I deserve to be reborn as a flu virus.

Oh well, at least there would be a lot of me...

[jpak]

15. LOL!!!

good one!

:):):):):)

[bloom]

13. I know what you mean

there are only so many disasters one can worry about at once.

I've decided to let go of worrying about the "fatal influenza epidemic". At least for now.

Peak oil - I'm concerned about in a generalized way but I see it as a natural development - though I'm worried about what the neo-cons see as a solution.

What people are doing to toxify the environment (the entire world) and ourselves takes most of my outrage energy. Though I think it's safe to say that nearly every one in the developed world is contributing to the problem, myself included - greedy corporations (and the people who profit most) and the military industrial complex - get the largest share of blame. I am outraged on behalf of the planet.

Climate change/global warming are consequences that are mostly interesting at this point. I'm interested in seeing how people adapt. But I am concerned about species loss - and negative consequences for people, animals, and plants. It is an outrage that politicians aren't doing more to reduce the problems and encourage solutions.

I am outraged about PNAC/corporatism and how they are affecting society and the world :nuke: and I have some outrage left for various women's issues/social/health issues (some of which also overlap with the toxic environment and the PNAC/corporatism group).

There is probably something else - but those are the main things that push my buttons.

[quiet.american]

4. Yikes! n/t

[rfkrfk]

8. 12 to 2 , what ? n/t

[phantom power]

9. "chimneys": zones where the water descends.

I guess there used to be 12 such zones, now there are only 2.

[lakeguy]

10. damn it! sweden is one of the countries i want to seek asylum in!

won't work if i need to run heaters around my house all day just to keep the glacier away:mad:

[Nihil]

11. Over what time period?

I couldn't see a reference to the time period for this study (i.e., when
the twelve chimneys dropped down to two) ... did I just miss it in the
article or was there another link that explained it?

I'm not trying to pass off the severity of this report but wondered if
it was a matter of years, months or decades?

(PS: Thanks for your excellent updates Hatrack!)

[hatrack]

12. Can't glean it from the article, but from other readings, I'd say 20 yrs

However, without references at my fingertips, I can't give a definitive answer.

Much of the mapping of ocean conveyer currents took place in the 1960s and 1970s, though I am not certain on dates for discovery of the subduction zones themselves.

Oh, and thanks for the thanks! :hi:

[phantom power]

14. Previous article mentions 20 years

Sounds like the drop from 12 to 2 is over a fairly short time, maybe even less than 20 years, the article doesn't make the time-period crystal clear, but "recently" sounds like it might even be years, not decades.

I don't see how we can conclude anything except that this is happening within our lifetimes. Whatever that means.

Wadhams’s submarine journeys took him under the North Polar ice cap, using sonar to survey the ice from underneath. He has measured how the ice has become 46% thinner over the past 20 years. The results from these surveys prompted him to focus on a feature called the Odden ice shelf, which should grow out into the Greenland Sea every winter and recede in summer.

The growth of this shelf should trigger the annual formation of the sinking water columns. As sea water freezes to form the shelf, the ice crystals expel their salt into the surrounding water, making it heavier than the water below.

However, the Odden ice shelf has stopped forming. It last appeared in full in 1997. “In the past we could see nine to 12 giant columns forming under the shelf each year. In our latest cruise, we found only two and they were so weak that the sinking water could not reach the seabed,” said Wadhams, who disclosed the findings at a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.
http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_17762.shtml

[Boomer]

16. I think there was a drop in funding

for ocean surveys and research, so that's why there's some fuzziness in knowing exactly when the chimneys disappeared. It's only within the last few years that a renewed sense of urgency spurred another closer look at the chimneys.