Panarchy

[Dover]

A holistic perspective and an alarming analysis of where we are within this natural system.

Panarchy is, in brief, the theory of cyclic, evolving, interconnected natural systems that is considered to be the antethesis to our current linear, heirarchical system. And it's derived based on observations of a forest ecosystem but can be and has been applied to many types of systems, from anthropology to economics, global governance to ecosystems/climate change...all interconnected. It offers another model for understanding and organizing ourselves within the complex relationships of natural systems and their cycles.

Here's one discussion excerpt of it and below is the author who helped develop this theory:

... (Hollings) argues that no given adaptive cycle exists in isolation. Rather, it's usually sandwiched between higher and lower adaptive cycles. For instance, above the forest's cycle is the larger and slower-moving cycle of the regional ecosystem, and above that, in turn, is the even slower cycle of global biogeochemical processes, where planetary flows of materials and elements-like carbon-can be measured in time spans of years, decades, or even millennia. Below the forest's adaptive cycle, on the other hand, are the smaller and faster cycles of sub-ecosystems that encompass, for instance, particular hillsides or streams. In fact, adaptive cycles can be found all the way down to the level of bacteria in the soil, where the smallest and fastest cycles of all are found. Here things happen on a tiny scale of millimeters or even microns, and they can take place in minutes or even seconds. So the entire hierarchy of adaptive cycles-what Holling and his colleagues call a panarchy-spans a scale in space from soil bacteria to the entire planet and a scale in time from seconds to geologic epochs.

This brings us to the most important point of all for our purposes: the cycles operating above and below play an important role in the forest's own adaptive cycle. The higher and slower-moving cycles provide stability and resources that buffer the forest from shocks and help it recover from collapse. A forest may be hit by wildfire, for example, but as long as the climate pattern across the larger region that encompasses the forest remains constant and the rainfall adequate, the forest should regenerate. Meanwhile, the lower and faster-moving cycles are a source of novelty, experimentation, and information. Together, the higher and lower cycles help keep the forest's collapse, when it occurs, from being truly catastrophic. But for this healthy arrangement to work, these various adaptive cycles must be at different points along that figure-eight loop. In particular, they mustn't all peak at the top of their growth phases simultaneously. If they do-if they are "aligned at the same phase of vulnerability," to use Holling's phrase-they will together produce a much more devastating collapse, and recovery will take far longer, if it happens at all. Should a wildfire hit a forest at the same time as the regional climate cycle enters a drought phase, the forest might never regenerate.

Panarchy theory helps us understand how complex systems of all kinds, including social systems, evolve and adapt. Of course, it shares similarities with other theories of adaptation and change. Its core idea-that systems naturally grow, become more brittle, collapse, and then renew themselves in an endless cycle-recurs repeatedly in literature, philosophy, religion, and studies of human history, as well as in the natural and social sciences. But Holling has done much more than just restate this old idea. He has made it far more precise, powerful, and useful by distinguishing between potential, connectivity, and resili­ence; by identifying variations in the system's pace of change as it moves through its cycle; and by describing the roles of adjacent cycles in the grand hierarchy of cycles.

Holling embodies something truly rare: the kind of wisdom that comes when an enormously creative, perceptive, and courageous mind spends a half-century studying a phenomenon and distilling its essential patterns. In a conversation with him not long ago, I encouraged him to expand on many aspects of panarchy theory, filling gaps in my understanding and giving me nuance and perspective that only he could provide. As we came to the end of our conversation, I asked him a question that had been on my mind since our first meeting a year before, when he'd been adamant that humanity is at grave risk.

"Why do you feel the world is verging on some kind of systemic crisis?"

cont'd

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/6008





Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems
By Lance H. Gunderson, C. S. Holling


The purpose for writing the book "Panarchy" was to develop an integrative theory to help us understand the source and role of change in systems- particularly kinds of changes that are transforming and take place in systems that are adaptive. Such changes comprise economic, ecological, and social systems, and they are evolutionary. They concern rapidly unfolding processes and slowly changing ones; gradual change and episodic change; and they take place and interact at many scales from local to global.

The cross-scale and dynamic nature of the theory led to the newly coined term - Panarchy. The term was created as an antethesis to the word hierarchy in its original meaning of a set of sacred rules. Panarchy is a framework of nature's rules, hinted at by the name of the Greek god of nature- Pan - whose persona also evokes an image of unpredictable change. Since the essential focus of Panarchy is to rationalize the interplay between change and persistence, between the predictable and unpredictable, Holling et al. (2002) draw on the notion of hierarchies of influences between embedded scales, that is pan-archies, to represent structures that sustain experiments, test its results and allow adaptive evolution.

cont'd
http://www.resalliance.org/593.php



Natural Cycles:



Anelemma:
If you photographed the sun once a week at the same time of day for an entire year, you would have a photo of the analemma, the sun's apparent path on the sky over the course of a year. Could this be where the ancient infinity symbol or even the ouroboros actually comes from?

[Dover]

1. So diversity is important for the sake of an overarching redundancy

that ensures that if one source is, for some reason, removed from the system then there are others that can continue to fulfill its function. In nature, the absense of the honey bee is certainly devastating, but there are other pollinators to carry on. And it would seem to perhaps be a mistake for honey production to create monocultures for specialized honey (from one particular plant/flower).
Monocultures in general are a very bad idea relative to the necessity for redundancy.


This is from that second link under the heading "Resilience":

HOW IS RESILIENCE ENHANCED?

Natural systems are inherently resilient but just as their capacity to cope with disturbance can be degraded, so can it be enhanced. The key to resilience in social-ecological systems is diversity. Biodiversity plays a crucial role by providing functional redundancy. For example, in a grassland ecosystem, several different species will commonly perform nitrogen fixation, but each species may respond differently to climatic events, thus ensuring that even though some species may be lost, the process of nitrogen fixation within the grassland ecosystem will continue. Similarly, when the management of a resource is shared by a diverse group of stakeholders (e.g., local resource users, research scientists, community members with traditional knowledge, government representatives, etc.), decision-making is better informed and more options exist for testing policies.Active adaptive management whereby management actions are designed as experiments encourages learning and novelty, thus increasing resilience in social-ecological systems.


Hollings seems to be saying that we are headed for a perfect storm of events, both natural and manmade, that cumulatively will result in a very significant collapse. Too many systems weakened
and under pressure at one time at multiple levels within the system, leaving the whole thing vulnerable. The tipping point could come from a relatively small event that causes all the dominoes to fall at once. I guess that is no surprise to anyone in this forum as we see the cumulative effects in our own lives and in the headlines every day.

So my question is, how can we individually and collectively, seize on the creative potential amidst this apparently chaotic, gathering storm, in order to, at every level, bring back an equilibrium so that we are a creative force and part of the 'reseeding' or new growth?