Solar Energy Can Provide 4.2% of U.S. Power by 2020

[jpak]

http://cleantechnica.com/2010/11/01/solar-energy-can-provide-4-2-of-u-s-power-by-2020/

If you keep up with solar energy news and energy news, in general, 4.2% of U.S. electricity coming from solar energy by 2020 probably sounds like a good estimate. According to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, that is exactly what the U.S. could reach due to continuously decreasing solar costs and continuous investment in this energy sector.

Investments in solar are expected to hit $100 billion over the next decade and the report predicts that with this amount of investment solar capacity could go from the 1,400 megawatts it’s at today to 44,000 megawatts by 2020.

“There is a very positive growth story for solar in the U.S.,” Michael Liebreich, chief executive officer of New Energy Finance for Bloomberg, said. “A few more years of support, and then the engine of unsubsidized competitiveness will take over.”

As I wrote just a few weeks ago, the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) is also predicting significant, continuous growth over the next several years. It is the fastest-growing energy industry in the U.S. and there is no reason to believe that growth would slow down.

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[NickB79]

1. The article says 4.2% of US ELECTRICITY from solar

Not 4.2% of US power. That is a BIG difference that the editors should have caught.

[Confusious]

2. With 22% of cars being electritic by 2020

That means 0% coal plant shutdown.

Maybe even more being built.

[joshcryer]

3. Hahaha, haaaah ahaahh. Ahhhhaaaaa. Coal won't shut down until the ground is raped clean.

There are *no* projections of *any* coal drop out in the United States as far out as the projections can go (to 2035).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/coal.html

[FBaggins]

18. That's what happens when you appear to be running out of oil...

...while you have all the coal you choose to use.

Same thing for natural gas.

[diane in sf]

5. Most cars will be charged at night when most power companies have a problem with excess power

being generated. Your argument is fact free.

[Confusious]

7. well, if it's solar, there won't be any power at night

There is no storage for the power generated during the day to use during the night. Soo, have to keep those coal plants online.

who is fact free?

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Oh, shush

If you don't clap, Tinkerbell's light will go out!

[Nihil]

10. That's new ...

> If you don't clap, Tinkerbell's light will go out!

Sonic electricity generation? :wow:


(And if you paste a picture of a blue-haired hedgehog, consider yourself spanked!)

[jpak]

22. Winds are generally stronger at night - so wind power can charge cars at home at night

Solar chargers at employer parking facilities can charge cars during work hours.

Didn't think of that - huh.

http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/aug10/wind0810.htm

[Confusious]

24. Is wind power going to provide 4.2% of power by 2020?

22% of cars is 30 million cars. A third of the power used in the country is used in cars, a third in various uses, and a third to power homes. Do you really think that 4.2% of power is going to cover that?

If the answer is yes, I will have to say again, REALLY?

[jpak]

25. Yup - wind will provide more than 4.2%

and when gasoline is back up to $4+ a gallon, we will fall all over ourselves to buy electric cars and solar/wind capacty to charge them.

yup!

[Confusious]

32. Well, then show me the link to the study

and we can declare the case closed.

[jpak]

35. Here ya go - Wind Can Supply 20% of U.S. Electricity, DOE Report Says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202596.html

The Energy Department said yesterday that the United States has the ability to meet 20 percent of its electricity-generation needs with wind by 2030, enough to displace 50 percent of natural gas consumption and 18 percent of coal consumption.

But in a report drawn up by its national laboratories, the department said that meeting the target would require more improvements in turbine technology, cost reductions, new transmission lines, an expansion of the wind industry and a fivefold increase in the pace of wind-turbine installation.

The report said a boost in wind capacity to 20 percent of electricity generation "could potentially defer the need to build some new coal capacity, avoiding or postponing the associated carbon emissions." The department said that expanding the use of wind to generate power could avert a need for more than 80 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity; its current projections say that new coal-fired plants capable of producing about 140 gigawatts of power could be built by 2030 to meet rising demand.

The report noted that a big expansion of wind-power generation would also cut the amount of water used by the electricity industry by 17 percent by 2030.

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Wind already provides 2% of US electricity and that will MORE THAN DOUBLE by 2015.

yup

[Confusious]

36. Where do you get your 2 percent number from

That report is also a projection. It said there would need to be a five-fold increase in installations, two years ago. That ain't happening if wind power is only going to double.

Actually, I believe there was a report in this forum that renewables had fallen flat this year.

[jpak]

39. From the EIA - the google is not your friend

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html

In 2009 - wind produced 1.8% of US electricity - wind power's share has risen this year.

too bad

[Confusious]

41. I found it per wikipedia a while ago

thanks anyways.

[Confusious]

37. never mind found 2 percent. nt

[Confusious]

38. looks like they won't make it

per wikipedia,

wind power grew

2007-2008 50 percent
2008-2009 37 percent

that's not a five-fold increase.

[jpak]

40. Wind power will more than double by 2015 - so sorry

:D

[Confusious]

42. Possibly depending on the economy

I will give that point. They have a good chance, and it's not that difficult if things don't go in the shitter.

but they are not on track for 20 percent by 2030.

[jpak]

43. So - at a 37% per year gowth rate - how long will it take wind generation to double?

clue 3 years - 2013

[Confusious]

44. good luck with that

the growth dropped from one year to the next.

if you have 50,000 to start, and 37 percent growth, that means 68,500 the next year. to keep 37 percent growth, you have to install 25,345 to maintain that, for a total of 93,845 in the last year.

we'll see, the year is coming to a close, and we'll get the numbers soon.

[jpak]

45. Wishful thinking - wind power installations will rebound next year

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-28/wind-power-set-to-bounce-back-in-2011-new-energy-finance-says.html

Wind turbine installations will bounce back in 2011 after stalling this year, according to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Turbines with an electricity-generation capacity of 45 gigawatts are likely to be erected next year, up from about 37.7 gigawatts this year, the London-based research group said today. Next year’s activity will be dominated by China, said Eduardo Tabbush, a New Energy Finance wind industry analyst.

“We expect a rebound in installations for 2011 mainly driven by growth in China,” Tabbush said. “This will account for about 50 percent of annual installations that year.”

[Confusious]

46. That would be worldwide installations, not the United States only

China is booming, while where're in the dumps.

We were talking about the United States only, remember?

[NickB79]

48. Why do you keep confusing power and electricity?

Confusious asked if wind would supply 4.2% of power by 2020, and you responded with a link describing electricity production from wind instead.

Electricity does not equal power.

[NickB79]

47. When gas is back over $4/gallon, we're gonna enter another Great Depression

Gas over $4/gallon had a significant role in sending us into the current recession. Another energy spike will make it all the more likely that our economy will "double-dip" and see the small economic gains we've made in the past 2 years disappear.

Most of us won't be able to afford to buy electric cars, even if we really, really want to.

[kristopher]

26. Do you have any idea how badly twisted you have those numbers?

You're understanding of 22% is wrong. That number is perhaps "percentage of new cars sold" but it certainly isn't percentage of vehicle fleet.

You're inappropriately interpreting "A third of the power used in the country is used in cars" since you haven't factored in the gains in energy efficiency derived from EV vs ICE.

Your divisions of power is not correct - you track it down.

How can you expect to arrive at a valid conclusion if your inputs are the garbage in the phrase "garbage in - garbage out"?

[jpak]

27. Now, now - we all know that antisolars can't do math

Isn't that what pro-nukes post about pro-solars ALL THE TIME?

yup

:D

[Confusious]

29. I'm not anti solar

as much as you would like to believe it.

I just don't see it doing the job we want it to do for a long time.

[Confusious]

28. I don't have to be exact

when the limit is infinity

follow me now:

electricity generation is aprox a third of the power used.

aprox a third is used in cars.

aprox another third is used for other. industry, commercial.

even taking into account the efficiency gains of using electric over internal combustion, 4.2 is nowhere even near 16 percent. ( twice as efficient)

so, as I said, there is no need to find the limit when the number diverges to infinity.

[jpak]

30. Exact? You're not even close

:rofl:

[Confusious]

31. Really, well show me the unicorns that fart glitter big boy.

Let's see some numbers. they're the the thing at the top of the keyboard.

I know how much time you spend at the right of the keyboard, I just thought you might have forgotten.

[jpak]

33. That was not a nice thing to say

:(

[Confusious]

34. What?

unicorns and glitter farting?

[NNadir]

4. With the anti-nukes pals in the coal and gas industry providing the other 96%, I assume. Weren't...

the anti-nukes saying 30 years ago that we'd be running on solar by 2000?

If their little crystal balls were just a fucking superstition then, why should we suddenly risk all life on earth for their superstitions now?

The fact is that even in this space, for almost a decade the "renewables will save us squad" oblivious to the reality of climate change do two things: 1) Rail illiterately against the world's largest, by far, source of climate change gas free primary energy.

2) Engage in oblivious soothsaying.

Since 2002 we've been hearing in this space how wonderful solar energy is, "world's largest...," "by 2010," now "by 2020," denial denial denial denial denial denial all with heathy dollops of wishful thinking.

What percentage of US renewable] electricity does the expensive "subsidize the rich at the expense of the poor" solar industry provide in US energy?

0.2%

0.2% of the useless and meaningless renewable industry, which, by the way, would essentially not exist with hydroelectricity and trash burning.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/table3.html">Um, um, um, can you divide 807,988 by 413,246,300 and figure "percent" stuff?

No? You must be an anti-nuke then.

[jpak]

23. Pronukes like Ronald Reagan killed the US solar inudstry in the 1980's and they will try again

when the the Teabagger Congress is sworn in.

Good for you

[Terry in Austin]

6. Heck, by 2020, it could be 100%

Just depends on how cheerful the assumptions are about how much "US power" will be at that point.

Discussions like this always assume "requirements" as the fixed part and production as the variable. Not helpful.

Fact is, requirements are highly negotiable. Nature bats last, but it also negotiates hardest.

That said, it's good that solar is coming along this well -- we'll need every bit of it!

[txlibdem]

11. It'll be 2220 if the market capitalists have their way...

But you are exactly right and Al Gore laid out the plan to get 100% of our electricity generation from renewable energy -- in 10 years!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAnQ1cFA_zM

The Repower Roadmap

We have all the tools and resources we need to solve the climate crisis. Here in the U.S., by using our energy more efficiently, utilizing clean, renewable energy sources, upgrading and expanding our energy infrastructure, and transitioning to low carbon fuel sources in our transportation sector, we will not only reduce global warming, but also save American consumers money and create new jobs and business opportunities.

(read on to see how)

http://repoweramerica.org/solutions/roadmap/

[Confusious]

12. 100% by 2020 is a fantasy

unless of course, the economy rebounds and the government finds a large pile of cash which is enough to fund 100 apollo missions.

germany is spending a large bucket of cash to get 1%.

forgot the other scenario. The economy goes way in the shitter, and we're all in the streets, so we don't need the power. Then we could make 100%.

[Terry in Austin]

13. 100% of diddly is pretty doable

Point is, total US generation in 2020 won't be anywhere near what it is today.

Very likely, renewables will in fact be most of it, and IT won't be diddly. Gotta stop assuming BAU.

[Confusious]

14. The OP was:

Solar Energy Can Provide 4.2% of U.S. Power by 2020

Nowhere near 100%, and even 4.2% is probably fantasy.

Where is you study saying it can be 100% by 2020? Looking at the rate of other countries around the world, who have smaller energy usage, smaller populations, they're having problems meeting their goals.

What study makes you think we can do it?

[Terry in Austin]

15. No study, just fun with math

Look, it was basically a wisecrack. Sorry. I'll go ahead and spoil it for you, though.

Obviously, if you've got ten watts, then you can do 100% of it with a hand cranked generator.
If you've got 500 watts, you can do 100% of it with a backyard windmill.
One hundred percent of diddly is still diddly.

The point is: just how much power is "US power" in 2020? That's open to prediction, and there's no reason to assume that it will be as much as today's amount, around 3992 billion kwh.

Fun with math (and here comes the joke, so hold on): Say that it turns out that total US power output in 2020 is only 167.7 billion kwh, why lo and behold, solar is providing 100% of it. (167.7 is 4.2% of 3992, don'tcha know.) Ha. Ha. Mmkay...

It's a humor thing, trust me -- meant no disrespect. But still, "US power" in 2020 is very unlikely to be anywhere near 3992 bkwh. That's just a bad assumption.

:shrug:

[Confusious]

16. OK, when it comes to humor

that has have the SMALLEST group in the world that would understand that.

Sorry I didn't get it, just been studying calc II all weekend and when I get a break, the brain shuts down.

and I didn't think there was any disrespect, I was just having a hard time understanding.

[Terry in Austin]

17. Calc II: not so much fun with math

More power to ya!

:fistbump:

[Kolesar]

20. You sound bored

go out and get some air

[bananas]

19. Freshman calculus? You have a long way to go.

[Confusious]

21. Not Really

If I want a math minor, or do more engineering, I have 3 classes to go.

Of course, for computer science, this is all I need, but I'm not one to give up easily. The next class is the reason I started down this path 5 years ago: Linear Algebra.

I have no plans to be a mathematician.

[XemaSab]

9. .

:party: