Peak oil redux

[pscot]

Jerome a Paris has a diary up at Dkos which offers this graphic. There's a good comment thread. The light blue portion of the graph and the assumptions behind it are much admired.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/9/911277/-Oil-plateaus

[Terry in Austin]

1. Oil E. Coyote

In the same thread:

[GliderGuider]

2. Brilliant!

:rofl:

[pscot]

3. You really oughtta

post that in that thread over at Dkos. It would add a lot to the discussion.

[Terry in Austin]

4. That's where I stole it from

:blush:

Great thread there, tho -- seems like most everybody gets it.

[Dead_Parrot]

6. Win. nt

[joshcryer]

5. Holy fucking shit! Is this the first time the IEA made this sort of rapid decline prediction?

[joshcryer]

7. Nat. Geographic: Has the world already passed "peak oil"?

The year 2006 may be remembered for civil strife in Iraq, the nuclear weapon testing threat by North Korea, and the genocide in Darfur, but now it appears that another world event was occurring at the same time—without headlines, but with far-reaching consequence for all nations.

That’s the year that the world’s conventional oil production likely reached its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Vienna, Austria, said Tuesday.

According to the 25-year forecast in the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook, the most likely scenario is for crude oil production to stay on a plateau at about 68 to 69 million barrels per day.

In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006," said IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.

In previous years, the IEA had predicted that crude oil production would continue to rise for at least another couple of decades.

Now, because of rising oil prices, declines in investment by the oil industry, and new commitments by some nations to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the new forecast says oil production is likely to be lower than the IEA had expected.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/

[NickB79]

12. Some jaw-dropping quotes from that article

"Today's active oil fields produce about 70 million barrels per day, but by 2035, he said, "they will produce less than 20 million barrels per day of oil.""

snip

"The IEA forecasts that Saudi Arabia—the largest producer—would boost its production by 50 percent, and that Iraq would nearly triple its production.

Maintaining this plateau would require massive investment in the oil industry, the report estimated, about $8 trillion over the next 25 years.

Also, in the IEA's main scenario, production from "tar sands," also known as “oil sands,” found mainly in Canada and Venezuela, would triple in the next 25 years."

Gut instinct: no fracking way we'll do all of those things, so kiss the illusion of an oil plateau goodbye.

[ishaneferguson]

8. Too optimistic

I am assuming that "unconventional oil" and "conventional oil - fields to be developed or found" includes very high cost (to find, drill, refine) sources.

"unconventional oil" and "conventional oil - fields to be developed or found" is not light sweet crude -- but is high sulfur, high particulates, and high "heavies." Not cheap to refine. And the "high particulates" includes heavy metls,

[happyslug]

10. "Unconventional Oil" means oil that does NOT exists

The IEA does not want to admit an oil shortage, demand is still climbing (if adjusted for the affect of the recession, which caused the recent drop in oil demand, thus delaying the affect of the drop in oil production).

Sooner or later (later if the recession keeps on going, sooner if the recession actually ends) peak oil will hit with all of its power and we will see a slow and unsteady (a lot of ups and downs) increase in price. The US economy will be the first to go, for we are the only society where even the poor have to use cars to get to their jobs. Other transportation options just do not exist even for poor people. Most jobs are in the suburbs and you need a car to get to them.

[4dsc]

9. Remember peak oil is a liquid fuel problem

and its coming just around the bend and nothing,and I mean nothing, no so called alternative will replace it. That's a FACT!! Get over folks, we screwed the pooch by ignoring the problem and don't think politicians are going to resolve the issue. They are in denial too.

[joshcryer]

11. Unconventional oil = oil shale?

[joshcryer]

13. Kickity. Does this mean we are invading Iran soon?

[GliderGuider]

14. "The bombing starts in 5 minutes." nt