It's official: peak oil is inevitable

[4dsc]

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=11225

Its going to happen in our lifetime and no amount of so called alternatives are going to stop this train. But since most people are still in denial, this train is going off the cliff with everyone on board. Enjoy it while you can.

[snappyturtle]

1. Link???? nt

[4dsc]

4. Sorry about that chief. nt

[marmar]

2. I think there's a problem with your link.

[Mojorabbit]

3. I get no info when I click your link? nt

[dmallind]

5. Paging Mr. Malthus. Come in Thomas and all linear extrapolators! NT

[Terry in Austin]

6. Paging Tinkerbell

Just believe hard enough, and the oil fairy will put more in the ground!

[dmallind]

10. Or simply look at history, where ALL similar situations have seen adaptation

buggy whip makers and whale oil importers cried doom too, because they lacked the foresight to imagine alternatives. Frankly so do I, but human history demonstrates over and over again that technological shifts are accommodated nicely. Why is this one impossible?

[joshcryer]

14. Not impossible, not at all. Just very very painful.

Technological leaps tend to be passive, that is, blacksmiths didn't just go out of work overnight, it was a gradual transition. But what Peak Oil appears to be promising, is that it won't be gradual.

The policy makers are suggesting "20% of cars will be EV in 20 years." Reality suggests "that's fucking impossible." Peak Oil suggests "we ain't got 20 years, anyway."

So when you have a global economy that relies on 100% of cars being able to get you places, and you have no realistic way to transition 20% of cars to EV much less 100%, it becomes clear just how painful the transition will be.

The greenwashing campaigns will have you believe we have it under control, but we need to build out 190,000 wind turbines a year, or 520 a day, forever, to avoid the problem.

[kristopher]

20. Josh the buggywhip maker...

Using falsified data to back up his appeal to hysteria.

[joshcryer]

8. The IEA isn't doing a linear extrpolation as far as I can tell.

I cannot, of course, read the full report because it is 250 Euros, however, I have read their slides and pretty much everything that they've released for free, and it does indicate, strongly, that we're fucked.

[joshcryer]

7. Net recommendation: 0 votes (Your vote: +1)

Welcome to E&E folks.

[GliderGuider]

9. "Inevitable"? It's already here. The IEA has waved the white flag of surrender.

A ruler-flat line for "Total crude oil, going out 25 years? That's how you signal "Peak Oil" in bureaucratese.

[XemaSab]

11. I like the one with the coyote on it better

:D

[joshcryer]

12. Yep, and I can confirm that this is the first time the IEA has taken this position.

The IEA's report, from what I'm able to glean from it, is very sobering. Wish I had access to the full thing.

[joshcryer]

13. The magical flat line is what does it.

Pure trend fitting.

[Confusious]

18. They haven't made a large find of oil in what? 50 years?

The undiscovered and undeveloped is bullshit.

[joshcryer]

19. Undeveloped is Iraq + Iran + insane Canadian oil sand exploitation.

Iraq can quadruple production, Iran can double production. Canada can probably double it at a much greater environmental impact. Proven reserves by the USGS.

But ramping up production isn't solving the issue. 2020 will usher in a steep decline in production regardless. We're talking 85 million barrels per day here, and it's only going up.

[ishaneferguson]

15. By My Definition -- PEAK OIL IS HERE

But my definition is not Kunstler's.

I define "Peak Oil" thusly:

• The challenges of finding the oil, especially the cost of finding it, are too high. -- Not there yet,
  
• The difficulty of getting "rights" )such as leases, and foreign government "licenses") are too high. Thta is happening, but not broadly enough that we feel it yet. Think of our war in Iraq.
  
• The drilling technology is getting more and more complex, and ever more expensive. We are there now. Think of the blow out in the Gulf.
  
• The refining technology is getting more expensive. We have been there for a while. The new fields are NOT "Light (low molecular weight), sweet (low sulfur)" which means more expensive refineries that are more expensive to operate.
  
• The oil in the new fields has higher soluble heavy metal organometallics -- not healthy for children or other living things. Some fields are there now.
  

I would say we are there.

But, I don't see us running off the end of a cliff. There are hybrids, EV's, and renewables. Not cheap relative to today's gasoline prices --- but ......

[joshcryer]

16. Pfft, we'll be invading Iran soon enough. Give them enough rope on nuclear...

...and they'll start making the bomb, pow, invasion forces.

[Terry in Austin]

17. Sounds like you're in the "Replacement" camp

As you point out, there are varying definitions of "Peak Oil," just as there are varying degrees of acceptance. One way or another, there's going to be a lot less oil, very soon.

>>I don't see us running off the end of a cliff. There are hybrids, EV's, and renewables.

While this is strictly true, the crucial thing here is whether there will be "enough," by whatever definition. The Replacement advocates take the view that there will be enough energy from renewables to replace the amount of energy we currently get from petroleum, thereby maintaining our business as usual.

From a purely quantitative standpoint, this is a very tough case to make. When you start figuring how many wind/solar/nuclear plants we would need to build to maintain our current consumption level, the prospects for such a huge project start looking highly improbable (to put it nicely).

For just the US, we're talking about more than a million wind turbines at $3.5 million apiece, or if you like, 3,000 nuclear plants at $10 billion each. Just floating the bonds for something like that would mean increasing the national capital formation to GDP ratio to unprecedented levels.

More likely is Plan B: arranging things so we can do with a lot less.

So, yes, there will be hybrids and EV's. A few of them, for the few (read "rich"). On very bad roads. And there will be renewables. Some. Just don't count on being able to run your microwave!