The wind subsides in Britain

[GliderGuider]

Inthe interests of keeping a level playing field, it's not just nuclear power that's having problems with delays and falling short of expectations.

Orders for wind turbines to fall by 93%, energy experts predict

Orders for offshore wind turbines in Britain will slump next year, threatening to halt the industry's recent growth and the expected creation of up to 10,000 "green economy" jobs.

Analysts are forecasting a 93% drop in the installation of new offshore windfarms in 2013 compared with the previous year. As orders for cables, foundations and other equipment are typically made two to three years ahead of the project being completed, the slowdown will start to bite among UK suppliers next year.

Britain recently overtook Denmark to become the world's largest offshore windfarm player, implying the tripling of capacity in the next two years. But new projects will dry up in 2013. Only 90 megawatts (MW) of newly installed capacity, which is enough to supply 30,000 homes when the wind blows, is being forecast by energy experts at Douglas-Westwood, compared with 1,368Mw the year before.

There are other extra projects on the drawing board which are supposed to fill this gap. But planning problems, difficulties securing finance and cost overruns on existing projects mean that these plans could be scaled back. Swedish firm Vattenfall said last month that it would not take up the option of expanding its Thanet windfarm – the largest offshore project in the world – blaming problems securing access to the grid.

So, no nuclear and no wind. That leaves ... what?

[Systematic Chaos]

1. Lots and lots and lots of peanut butter-powered gerbils on treadwheels?

:shrug:

[DCKit]

2. A huge push for conservation, I guess.

How did I know that "Austerity" in GB was going to include all the wrong things?

[Nihil]

3. Crap.

(Not the OP article, the situation)

> Orders for offshore wind turbines in Britain will slump next year, threatening
> to halt the industry's recent growth and the expected creation of up to 10,000
> "green economy" jobs.
> ...
> Analysts are forecasting a 93% drop in the installation of new offshore windfarms
> in 2013 compared with the previous year.
> ...
> Britain recently overtook Denmark to become the world's largest offshore windfarm
> player, implying the tripling of capacity in the next two years. But new projects
> will dry up in 2013. Only 90 megawatts (MW) of newly installed capacity, which is
> enough to supply 30,000 homes when the wind blows, is being forecast by energy
> experts at Douglas-Westwood, compared with 1,368Mw the year before.

That's depressing. I'd (foolishly) started to get my hopes up with regard to some
of the wind farm plans around the UK.

:-(

[Nihil]

4. Kick ...

... as it would be nice to hear a response on this issue rather than just
letting it slip quietly into the memory-hole ...

[GliderGuider]

5. Alt.energy is is done.

The puling infant of an industry is being smothered in its crib by the weight of reality.

Since we have already succeeded in killing nuclear, we are left with coal.

Have a nice day.

[joshcryer]

7. Hahaha

Seriously?

[StarsInHerHair]

6. hahahahaha what did Elizabeth Tudor do back in the day?

raised by rushlight? I can foresee using as little energy on lighting as possible, even in foggy England. Skylights, big 18th century style windows.

Oh yes, & the obvious: watches & clocks that you wind up. I wonder how many other appliances can be petal powered up as needed?

[txlibdem]

8. Like the old grandfather clocks driven by a weight and pulley system

Winding is only good for a small time piece. But the larger point is well made: we need to rethink the stupid things we are doing now, like using 2x4's and single pane windows and not putting enough thought into building tightness and insulation.

Passive solar design can be used in any part of the world, England included, and it's a good idea no matter where you live. Skylights, though, are a bad idea for a number of reasons. They eventually leak (of course), but even worse they let out the heat in winter and let in the heat in summer so engineers fluent in passive solar design techniques recommend they never be used inside the living space of your home. In the garage...

Speaking of pedal powered appliances, on an old episode of "Living With Ed" he wanted to make some toast so he got on his bicycle (which is connected to a generator and battery) and pedaled until he had made enough electricity to cancel out the energy used by making his toast. It made me think just how much electricity we as a nation could generate if all exercise equipment were designed to make electricity. They even have running shoes that can charge your cell phone/iPod.

[StarsInHerHair]

18. triple glazed skylights would let out less heat, especially if

insulated curtain/panels were made. Leaking? rubber gaskets, silicone seals, I think there are ways to offset leaks of all kinds. There's also a vertical window with a part of the roof being higher.........gable windows.....I can't recall the name.

Have you ever seen the gear-driven German 'robots', also is Big Ben key wound-was it ever key wound? New inventions using gears, weights, and gravity may reduce electricity dependence. The easiest is lighting. I saw on some show where they used fiber-optic cords & it funneled light & came out of what looked like a chandelier-flower thing. Using mirrors to augment indoor light & redirect it worked back in the day, I'm sure it can be improved upon now.
http://www.lotzdollpages.com/ldance.html
http://hubpages.com/hub/Automata-and-Mechanical-Toys
http://www.automates-anciens.com/english_version/

I think for most houses not built on a floodplain, it would be a good standard practice to have the first floor underground. I've even dreamed of such a house. there were windows at the normal place but the view, there was a wall of compacted soil, the ground looked like it was covered in either perlite or gravel, the sunlight indirectly shown into the room. The roof was covered in plants.

That's a great idea about exercise equipment, new standards should make exercise equip. dual-use, so the option is there if wanted.

[jpak]

9. If anyone bothered to read the article - these are growing pains not *THE END*

There will be a gap in the supply chain between Round 1 and 2 projects followed by a robust Round 3 of offshore wind development in the UK.

The global PV market had similar a similar supply chain bottleneck a few years ago with a temporary shortage of polysilicon - now fixed.

nothing to worry about

yup

[NNadir]

10. Really? I guess we can all stop worrying about climate change then, right?

Nothing to worry about here. Move on people. Everything is all better.

Wind power in Britain will provide all the energy anyone will ever need. Don't even be concerned. 50 years of wishful thinking has finally granted all of our wishes.

The great success of the Utsira wind project that powered 10 homes has caused Norway to shut all of its offshore oil and gas rigs, and Britain too.

Denmark is not issuing http://www.ens.dk/en-us/info/news/news_archives/2010/sider/20100922applicationnewoilandgaslicence.aspx">new offshore Palinesque oil and gas leases.

Nothing to see here. And if you do see something, maybe the wind will stop blowing and you'll have to turn your computer off.

Happy days are here again. Everything's fine. No reason to be nervous, even if Denmark is 22% above its Kyoto commitments.

[jpak]

11. LOL!111 still trying to equate renewable energy with fossil fuels?? That's just plain stupid

:rofl:

[GliderGuider]

12. self delete

[GliderGuider]

13. Nobody says it's "The End". However, the biggest supply chain problem seems to be

in the financial supply chain:

The availability of bank finance for offshore projects – at least twice as costly as onshore windfarms – has still not returned to pre-credit crunch levels. Now there are only 10-14 banks actively lending, compared with almost 40 before 2008, each lending about half what they were lending before. Andy Cox, head of KPMG's energy practice, said: "It takes more time to get their credit committees comfortable with the risks associated with these projects, particularly as they get bigger and bigger. A huge financing gap in the market is looming with Round 3."

[jpak]

14. Umm ..."So, no nuclear and no wind. That leaves ... what?"

the end

[joshcryer]

15. No, fossil fuels and highly contested on-shore wind farms.

Yep.

The point of offshore in Britain is that they don't have people complaining about them.

[GliderGuider]

16. It leaves plenty.

It leaves (lots of) coal, (declining amounts of) oil, (minor amounts of) onshore wind, (minuscule amounts of) solar power -- and of course fusion power too cheap to meter any year now.

The problem is that during times of global economic instability financiers opt for well-understood, high-return energy projects with low financial risk. That spells coal and natural gas. It's not "The End" of anything except perhaps the world we hoped for.

[Nihil]

17. "nothing to worry about"

>> Energy companies are expected to spend the next two years planning bids
>> to build huge "Round 3" projects and these may not become operational much
>> before the end of the decade.

Note that "the end of the decade" is not 2010 but 2020.

The blithely dismissed "gap in the supply chain" is looking to be several years,
not just six to twelve months.


>> There are other extra projects on the drawing board which are supposed to fill
>> this gap. But planning problems, difficulties securing finance and cost overruns
>> on existing projects mean that these plans could be scaled back.

The 93% drop in 2013 will need quite a few "supposed" projects to fill this gap.


> The global PV market had similar a similar supply chain bottleneck a few years
> ago with a temporary shortage of polysilicon - now fixed.

I thought that was a temporary shortage of polysilicon not the funding to build
beyond the prototype/pilot level using existing technologies? This means that
the necessary "fix" will be somewhat different than a quick ramp-up of production.


>> Swedish firm Vattenfall said last month that it would not take up the option
>> of expanding its Thanet windfarm – the largest offshore project in the world

That pissed me off ... it was supposed to be a flagship project.
:-(