I posted this graph in a couple of threads on GD, but I thought it might be of more interest here.
It's the sum of the world's net oil exports, taken from BP's 2010 Statistical Review of World Energy. I subtracted each country's consumption from its production, then summed all the positive values. The flat-to-declining trend since 2005 when world oil production entered its current plateau is quite clear.
Global oil production has been flat for 5 years. In some oil exporting nations their production is falling, and in many their consumption is still rising. The result is lower levels of net exports. With less oil on the world market, oil importers are forced to bid the price up in order to get the supplies they need. As the world economy tries to recover from the recession, it needs more oil. The result is rising demand in the face of falling supply. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why oil prices are rising.