China waves caution flag on pace of nuclear new build

[bananas]

http://djysrv.blogspot.com/2011/01/china-waves-caution-flag-on-pace-of.html

January 19, 2011
China waves caution flag on pace of nuclear new build
A government policy groups says the country should avoid building too many units too quickly

The Bloomberg wire service reported Jan 11 that the Chinese State Council Research Office published a policy paper in its Outlook Weekly that the country must avoid building too many new nuclear reactors too quickly.

This blog obtained a rough English translation of the source document. This blog post is a review of the highlights of the English version of the report.

<snip>

This blog predicted in December 2010 that there would be a slowdown in China in terms of the pace of its new nuclear build.

The mandarins in Beijing will discover they're outrunning their ability to build out their plans for 80 GWe of new reactors in ten years. There are limits to how much concrete, steel, and nuclear engineering talent can be put into play in that short a period of time. They might build 25 GWE in ten years.

<snip>

Here are some highlights of the Outlook Weekly dated January 10, 2011. These highlights are a summary of the rough English translation obtained by this blog. Readers who understand Chinese may click on the link at the top of this blog post to get to the original document.

<snip>

Previous discussion: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x270383

[joshcryer]

1. That blog does not in any way support the 25 GWe by 2020 "prediction."

In fact, the link to the WNN report at the bottom of the blog implies 100 GWe.

[bananas]

3. Who to believe?

WNN implies 100 GW but they're just catapulting the propaganda.
Bloomberg reports 70 GW.
Dan's translator says 40 GW.
Dan's estimate of 25 GW is what he thinks will actually be built.
The way the article supports Dan's prediction is that it shows China is starting to face reality and realizes it must cut back it's targets.

Bloomberg: "The country should set a 2020 ceiling on reactors in operation at 70,000 megawatts"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/china-should-control-pace-of-reactor-construction-outlook-says.html

China Should Control Pace of Reactor Construction, Outlook Says
By Bloomberg News - Jan 11, 2011 12:15 AM PT

China must avoid building too many nuclear power reactors too quickly, the research unit of the State Council, or Cabinet, wrote in Outlook Weekly.

The country should set a 2020 ceiling on reactors in operation at 70,000 megawatts to avoid a shortfall of fuel, equipment and qualified plant workers, the government-controlled unit said in a commentary in the weekly magazine published by the official Xinhua News Agency.

China is increasing the share of non-fossils fuels in its energy mix to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The country had 9,080 megawatts of nuclear capacity in operation as of 2009 and 21,920 megawatts under construction, the China Electricity Council says.

To lower safety risks, China should focus on developing reactors based on the third-generation AP1000 design instead of older, second-generation technology, according to the commentary. The AP 1000 reactor is manufactured by Westinghouse Electric Co., a unit of Toshiba Corp.

--Winnie Zhu. Editors: Ryan Woo, Jane Lee.

To contact the reporter on this story: Winnie Zhu in Shanghai at [e-mail]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jane Lee at [e-mail].

[joshcryer]

2. The comment about concrete and steel is still nonsense, BNC's TCASE 4 shows why:

http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/10/18/tcase4/

[bananas]

4. Theory vs reality

http://www.flickr.com/photos/16721844@N00/429450898



Every two years the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) together with the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) publish detailed data about existing reactors, reactors under
construction, shut down reactors and also forecasts for the next 20–30 years. An early
forecasts in 1975 predicted the nuclear capacity of OECD member countries to grow to
between 772–890 GW by 1990. Based on such forecasts the uranium production capacities
were extended. But in reality, the installed capacity grew to 260 GW falling far below the
IAEA target range. The 1977 forecast was less ambitious, envisaging a range of between
860–999 GW by 2000. As the year 2000 came closer, the more modest the forecasts became
eventually predicting a capacity ranging between 318–395 GW by 2000. Actually, a total of
303 GW were installed in the year 2000. Every forecast by the IAEA in the past eventually
turned out as having been too optimistic.

[GliderGuider]

5. If their nuclear build-out is being held up by steel and concrete

What does that say about their wind program, that requires ten times as much of those materials for the same amount of power?

Frankly, I think China faces a number of very severe physical limits on their industrial planning, not the least of which is the escalation in the price of oil over the next 5 years.

The entire world's economy has become energy-constrained.