SAN FRANCISCO — Marine biologists are spotting ominous signs all along the Pacific Coast this year: higher nearshore ocean temperatures, plummeting catches of groundfish, an explosion of dead birds on coastal beaches, and perhaps most disturbing, very few plankton the tiny critters that form the basis of the ocean's intricate food web. From California to British Columbia, unusual weather patterns have disrupted the marine ecosystem, scientists say. The normal northerly winds failed to show up this year, preventing the usual upwelling of colder water that sustains the plankton, and in turn, many other species from anchovies to cormorants to whales.
Is this just a strange year, or is this what global warming looks like? Few scientists are willing to blame the plankton collapse on the worldwide rise in temperatures attributed to carbon dioxide and other gases believed to trap heat in the earth's atmosphere. Yet few are willing to rule it out. If these patterns continue, it could show that something in the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean has permanently changed, with serious consequences for coastal birds, fish and marine mammals.
"These natural changes can teach us a lot about what might happen if global warming came along," said Francisco Chavez, an oceanographer at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. "That global change is going to affect the ocean is a given. We just don't know how or what the effects will be." It may be just an unusual year. Similar ecological signs have appeared during El Nino years, when increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific alter weather patterns worldwide. But scientists say the West Coast hasn't had El Nino conditions this year.
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Seabirds are clearly distressed. On the Farallon Islands west of San Francisco, researchers this spring noted a steep decrease in nesting cormorants as well as a 90 percent drop in Cassin's auklets the worst in more than 35 years of monitoring. The relatively rare birds, which feed mostly on krill, have since returned, but came too late for successful breeding this year, said Jaime Jahnke, a researcher at Point Reyes Bird Observatory. "We don't know what's going on," Jahnke said. "If this is the result of some kind of large climate phenomenon that we don't know about, it's important to document it and understand what's causing it." More disturbingly, researchers have reported a sharp increase in dead birds washing up on the shores of California, Oregon and Washington. Along Monterey Bay in Central California, there are four times as many dead birds such as Cassin's auklets, common murres and Brandt's cormorants than in most years, said Hannah Nevins, a marine scientist at Moss Landing Marine Laboratories. "The bottom has fallen out of the coastal food chain, and there's just not enough food out there," said "They're basically dying. They're way stressed out."
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