Study: Warming Making Hurricanes Stronger

[Eugene]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050731/ap_on_sc/hurricanes_global_warming

Study: Warming Making Hurricanes Stronger

By JOSEPH B.VERRENGIA, AP Science Writer 1 hour, 30 minutes ago

Is global warming making hurricanes more ferocious? New research
suggests the answer is yes. Scientists call the findings both
surprising and "alarming" because they suggest global warming is
influencing storms now — rather than in the distant future.

However, the research doesn't suggest global warming is generating
more hurricanes and typhoons.

The analysis by climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology shows for the first time that major storms
spinning in both the Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have
increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.

These trends are closely linked to increases in the average
temperatures of the ocean surface and also correspond to increases
in global average atmospheric temperatures during the same period.

"When I look at these results at face value, they are rather
alarming," said research meteorologist Tom Knutson. "These are very
big changes."

More: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050731/ap_on_sc/hurricanes_global_warming

[whistle]

1. Then industries responsible for warming must pay for the damages

....this is like Big Tobacco all over again.

[Spinzonner]

2. We're #5, We're #5 !

[Viking12]

3. From the horse's mouth...

First 3 paragraphs

Fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity are of obvious importance to society, especially as populations of afflicted areas increase5. Tropical cyclones account for a significant fraction of damage, injury and loss of life from natural hazards and are the costliest natural catastrophes in the US6. In addition, recent work suggests that global tropical cyclone activity may play an important role in driving the oceans' thermohaline circulation, which has an important influence on regional and global climate7.

Studies of tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic reveal large interannual and interdecadal swings in storm frequency that have been linked to such regional climate phenomena as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation8, the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation9, and multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic region10. Variability in other ocean basins is less well documented, perhaps because the historical record is less complete.

Concerns about the possible effects of global warming on tropical cyclone activity have motivated a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical studies. Basic theory11 establishes a quantitative upper bound on hurricane intensity, as measured by maximum surface wind speed, and empirical studies show that when accumulated over large enough samples, the statistics of hurricane intensity are strongly controlled by this theoretical potential intensity12. Global climate models show a substantial increase in potential intensity with anthropogenic global warming, leading to the prediction that actual storm intensity should increase with time1. This prediction has been echoed in climate change assessments13. A recent comprehensive study using a detailed numerical hurricane model run using climate predictions from a variety of different global climate models2 supports the theoretical predictions regarding changes in storm intensity. With the observed warming of the tropics of around 0.5 °C, however, the predicted changes are too small to have been observed, given limitations on tropical cyclone intensity estimation.

-snip-last paragraph


Whatever the cause, the near doubling of power dissipation over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as it is a measure of the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. Moreover, if upper ocean mixing by tropical cyclones is an important contributor to the thermohaline circulation, as hypothesized by the author7, then global warming should result in an increase in the circulation and therefore an increase in oceanic enthalpy transport from the tropics to higher latitudes.


subscription required:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature03906.html

[phantom power]

4. I recall reading that wind's power grows as the cube of velocity.

A 5% increase in wind speed translates into 15.7% increase in power dissipation. A 25% increase in wind speed is just about double the power.

[Coastie for Truth]

5. Years ago (okay, 1995)

I took a night school, continuing ed course. My idea was to get a good refresher in computer and MatLab methods in differential equations -- but we had prof whose interest was Computer and MatLab Methods in the Differential Equations of METEOROLOGY. Suffice it to say - his olitics were progressive and green - and he belonged to the local progressive club and the local ACLU.

The professor made it into a fun course (if differential equations can ever be fun) -- and it was really neat to simulate a hurricane forming and growing (especially with multi color graphics on the display).

Clearly, according to the models we used, warmer ocean waters give rise to more intense hurricanes (higher velocities and higher velocity gradients).

[bloom]

6. The NOAA

was at the Press Club today - on Cspan.

Someone asked about this report and global warming and increasing hurricanes. The answer was something like - "even though hurricanes have been increasing since 1970 - there is a multi-decadal cycle that prevents them from making any connections."

http://www.wgfl.com/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=141


(Not that that means anything - besides the fact that they are unwilling to say there is a link).

[Viking12]

7. "We can't currently make a link"

is scientifically accurate. I can't hold against the scietnists for accurately protraying the science. That said however I wish that scientists would explain that "We can't currently make a link" is not the same as "There isn't a link".

NASA's Gavin Schmidt was recently on Lou Dobbs and explained it well: "the pattern of heat waves and droughts (ed: feel free to substitute hurricanes) that we're seeing this particular summer can't be directly tied to the global warming pattern that we're seeing over the whole world, but as we get to a warmer planet those kinds of things become more likely to happen."

[phantom power]

8. The missing link is...

Pirates!


http://www.venganza.org/

P.S. I shamelessly ripped that gag off from this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=228&topic_id=10323&mesg_id=10323

[Viking12]

9. Thanks for clearing that up.

More PIRATES!!!!!

[Coastie for Truth]

12. A bit more "complex" (bad pun) then an LRC circuit.

[bloom]

10. How FOX covered the story - Newshounds.us

Fox Hides Notorious Anti-Global Warming Corporatist Behind the Title, "Portfolio Manager"


Steve Milloy Says Global Warming is a Myth "Propagated by the UN."


According to Reuters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned today (August 2, 2005), that "the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be worse than previously expected." Fox News reporter Rebecca Gomez reported this in a short segment on Your World w/Neil Cavuto this afternoon. Gomez' segment was immediately followed by an interview Cavuto conducted with Steve Milloy, whom Cavuto identified as "the portfolio manager at Free Enterprise Action Fund."


Milloy said that "global warming is a myth. Global warming hysteria is junk science that is propagated by the UN, the European Union, radical environmentalists. You know," he continued, "the UN science behind global warming puts oil for food in the shade in terms of scandal." He said there is "no evidence at all that humans are having an adverse impact on climate."


Comment: Don't ya love it? Here's a guy who bashes the UN and environmentalists and Europe all in one. What a perfect Fox guest!

<more>

http://www.newshounds.us/2005/08/02/fox_hides_notorious_antiglobal_warming_corporatist_behind_the_title_portfolio_manager.php#more

[phantom power]

11. Wow, did he show off his tinfoil hat too?