Energy And Political Experts Say Oil Crisis Could Erupt

[Strelnikov_]

They need to run simulations to figure out we are in deep?

Energy And Political Experts Say Oil Crisis Could Erupt
http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/articles/1777027.html
August 18, 2005

. . .

A simulated oil supply crisis played out Wednesday at the Torrance Cultural Arts Center. Rep. Jane Harman, D-El Segundo, was joined by former CIA Director James Woolsey, former California Gov. Pete Wilson and other energy and political experts in the event called Oil Shockwave.

. . .

The event was meant to highlight the nation's vulnerability to oil supply shocks, especially since much of the world's oil is in areas plagued with instability from war, terrorism or political strife including the Persian Gulf, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia.

. . .

During the simulation and in a press conference afterward, the participants stressed that the United States must immediately begin reducing its dependence on oil, through conservation and further development of technologies that use alternative fuels and hybrid motors. Otherwise, the United States risks ending up a "paper tiger," said Spiegel, who played the role of director of national intelligence.

. . .

During the simulation, the participants contemplated U.S. military action to secure Saudi Arabia's oil fields, government-imposed rationing of gasoline, and tapping the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. All those options posed difficulties. For example, the latter would offer only temporary relief, and carries the risk of raising oil prices by appearing to confirm people's fears about the world's oil supply, some of the participants said.Woolsey summarized the situation by saying, "The short-range options range from the most disagreeable to awful."

. . .

[wli]

1. an oil crisis is erupting as we speak n/t

[niallmac]

2. Wow! Science!

Did someone finally pull the big wooden stick out of the ground and notice; " Two Quarts Low- Fill to Line?"

[DJ MEW]

5. It's about time they checked the fluid levels

cause the check engine soon light has been on for the past 5 years.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. No cynicism necessary -- fortunately!

And that's a pleasant break from the status quo. It seems that "Oil Shockwave" was a program to educate the public, and several politicians actually used their sense of vision to promote the idea that Things Are Not The Way They Used To Be.

It's an unusual departure from the politicians and businessmen who have come up with the idea that oil in an infinite resource.

Normally, I wouldn't expect people like Wilson, Woolsey, and local reps to have a handle on energy resource problems. It is a small hopeful sign that a few actually do.

--p!

[hatrack]

4. This seems to be popping up everywhere of late

Not "Dayum, them gas prices sure are HAH!" - a very common story in times like these - but Peak Oil, oil shortfalls, the finitude of petroleum and the like. And it's not our "leaders" talking about this. It's just out there in the news, here and there and everywhere.

Maybe the signals from the dinosaur's now-tenderized tail finally made it to its pea-sized brain.

[phantom power]

6. Talking is a good start. I wonder if anybody's going to take action.

[Viking12]

7. I can't find the earlier story about this...

that cited ~$5.25/gallon as the economic breaking point. If the scenario plays out and gas reaches that threshold the world will plummett in massive economic depression (as opposed to a milder depression as the price climbs).

[Viking12]

9. Found it

The United States would be all but powerless to protect the American economy in the face of a catastrophic disruption of oil markets, high-level participants in a war game concluded yesterday.

The exercise, called "Oil Shockwave" and played out in a Washington hotel ballroom, had real-life former top U.S. officials taking on the role of members of the president's Cabinet convening to respond to escalating energy crises, culminating in $5.32-a-gallon gasoline and a world wobbling into recession.

"The American people are going to pay a terrible price for not having had an energy strategy," said former CIA director Robert M. Gates, who took on the role of national security adviser. Stepping out of character, he added that "the scenarios portrayed were absolutely not alarmist; they're realistic."

The exercise began with ethnic unrest in Nigeria, leading to the collapse of the oil industry in that west African nation. Then al Qaeda launched crippling attacks on key energy facilities in Valdez, Alaska, and Saudi Arabia.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/23/AR2005062301896.html

[rustydad]

8. Plan B

If we had honest well meaning politicians in this country we might have done this, 20 years ago that is.

1) Convene a Task Force of scientists, economists, professors, and others to study our sources of crude oil and natural gas and to determine the real world supply of oil and gas.

2) Look at the potential for third world countries like China and India to transition to fuel using countries and what that would mean in terms of supply.

3) Develop a strategy to bring our oil and gas use in line with our capacity to extract these fuels in country.

4) Create a tax incentive plan to force transportation by rail of both people and goods.

5) Create CAFTA rules to achieve car and truck gas mileage of at least 100 mpg. Ban all cars and light trucks that weigh over 2000 lbs.

6) Create rules that all homes be heated by solar and all water in homes be solar heated.

7) Ban further development of homes outside urban areas.

I could go on but the sad truth is that Plan B needed to happen a long time ago. It cannot happen now. We are screwed folks, big time. Bob

[Pooka Fey]

10. President Jimmy Carter had a plan to reduce U.S. oil dependence 25 yrs ago

and he was politically annihilated by the Republicans. Don't think that we've never had an honest and well-meaning President with vision and concern for the American public who tried to prepare for this eventuality decades ago. There were more powerful competing interests, namely greedy Republican politicians, the BFEE, corporations, the military/industrial complex; who managed to de-rail Carter and nullify his efforts.

The public was more than happy enough to go back to sleep after suffering through the oil shocks of the late 1970's.

[wishlist]

11. I remember when Texas oilmen were all whining about low price of oil

Back when oil prices were so low during the Clinton years, there were a lot of stories in the news about the poor Texas oilmen who couldn't make enough profit with the low prices for it to be worth their while to continue in the business.