New report confirms Arctic melt accelerating, estimates up to 1.6 meter sea-level rise

[Barrett808]

Arctic ice is melting faster than expected and could raise the average global sea level by as much as five feet this century, an authoritative new report suggests.

The study by the international Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, or AMAP, is one of the most comprehensive updates on climate change in the Arctic, and builds on a similar assessment in 2005. ...

The melting of Arctic glaciers and ice caps, including Greenland's massive ice sheet, are projected to help raise global sea levels by 35 to 63 inches (90-160 centimeters) by 2100, AMAP said, though it noted that the estimate was highly uncertain.

That's up from a 2007 projection of 7 to 23 inches (19-59 centimeters) by the U.N. panel, which didn't consider the dynamics of ice caps in the Arctic and Antarctica. ...

New report confirms Arctic melt accelerating, estimates up to 1.6 meter sea-level rise

[XemaSab]

1. .

[Gregorian]

2. That's actually the end of life as we know it. In less time than modern society has existed.

I'm betting that there is an acceleration of the acceleration. There will shortly be a point where the ice begins melting at an extremely rapid rate. Volume to surface area, and increasing temperature of air and water. It's not good. Things like travel are going to have to stop. Military fuel use is going to have to slow down or stop. But that's crazy talk.

[guardian]

7. Yes you are right, it is more doomer "crazy talk"

Seriously. "...the end of life as we know it." All because of a 1.6m rise in sea level? Go to http://flood.firetree.net and map what 1.6m rise will do. You'll have to use a 2m projection because the tool doesn't have finer graduations. Use 2m and you'll see the change is barely perceptible. New York, Miami, and pretty much everywhere else will be largely unchanged.

[Gregorian]

8. Except that that rise has multiple impacts.

When I say "we", I mean Bangladesh, and many other poor parts of the world. Then there is the alteration of sea currents due to that fresh water mixing with bodies of ocean water. And other things that we know about and don't know about yet. I say end as we know it because this isn't happening over a 100,000 year period. It's happening in an extreme flash of only a century.

[guardian]

11. Bangladesh with a 2m sea level increase

http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=22.7458,89.1321&z=10&m=2

End of the world as we know it.


YUP

YUP

YUP

YUP

YUP

YUP

YUP

[Name removed]

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[Gregorian]

16. I think you're minimizing the impact.

I doubt you fully understand the subject. Sea rise alone is only a symptom of the true magnitude of this problem. Even that is going to cost trillions. But the peripherals surrounding that scenario are multiple.

[guardian]

17. only as a counterpoint

to those overstating the impact.

[Gregorian]

19. Perhaps. I do tend to over react.

I just want to avoid what might happen. As an engineer, I tend to work that way.

[reggie the dog]

3. not fucking good at all

all our beaches will be gone, well except the great lakes, all our ports, once again the great lakes ...well now wait a minute, this could be great for ports in cleveland, detroit, chicago, duluth, except for that they freeze in the winter.....

[PavePusher]

4. Right. The last time conditions were warmer, there were no beaches either.

Seriously, WTF?

[Systematic Chaos]

5. I think he means beaches without buildings and shit out in the water?

Beaches with sand along them and not abandoned paved roads?

Seriously, do you have an imagination? WTF?

[PavePusher]

9. Maybe I'm just tired, but I really can't figure out what you are trying to say. n/t

[Systematic Chaos]

10. I'm trying to say that a few feet of sea level rise is gonna create some highly undesirable beaches.

n/t

[guardian]

12. But of course it never could

create some new wonderful beaches. That would violate the doomer mantra.

[Name removed]

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[reggie the dog]

15. i was just talking bullshit

but many beaches will dissapear, chicago will have nicer beaches than miami.

but that is not important, the ports are what is important

[Nederland]

6. Is the increase linear?

If it is, it should be easy to validate. An increase of 1.6 meters this century works out to be more than 1.6cm a year, which should be very easy to verify. If five years go by and we haven't seen many cm worth of increase, we'll know they were wrong.

Of course, they could be saying the increase is not linear and that most of that increase will be later in the century. That would be convenient, because it would render the predictions unverifiable in the short term...

Finally, this is a "report", not a peer reviewed journal article. As such, it cannot be assumed to possess the same level of rigor as the sources the IPCC used to develop its projections.

[guardian]

18. "we'll know they were wrong"

Dude that would be using logic. But the doomers are NEVER wrong. They just 'update' their models and keep pushing out the date for ultimate doom, and talk about how they need more money to study the problem.

See link for one of many failed predictions: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/22/a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-prediction-by-dr-james-hansen/

Even if the 1.6m rise came to pass (which is the extreme upper limit of the predicted range) I think society can cope with a 1.6 cm (i.e., 0.6 inches) rise per year and slowly adjust and relocate in an orderly fashion. Certainly NOT "the end of life as we know it" on a planetary scale.