The Costs of Canceling Japan's Plans for Nuclear Power

[wtmusic]

"...Replacing Nuclear with Coal or LNG

In this section, we project the impact on overall current carbon emissions, trade balance, and replacement costs if Japan were to replace the fourteen planned nuclear reactors and the existing reactors assumed to be retired by 2030 with coal (Scenario 1), LNG (Scenario 2), or a mix of both (Scenario 3).

If electricity generation from the fourteen planned nuclear power plants and the generation from the thirty-eight reactors built before 1990 were replaced entirely by natural gas-fired generation fueled by imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) (Scenario 2 below), the country's CO2 emissions would rise by 189 million tons, representing 15 percent of Japan's current CO2 emissions. If this nuclear generation were replaced by coal-fired power plants (Scenario 1), the country's CO2 emissions would rise by roughly 317 million tons, 26 percent of current emissions. Prior to the earthquake and nuclear crisis, Japan's government had pledged to reduce CO2 emissions to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020, a challenge that would be virtually impossible should coal or LNG play a greatly expanded role in the nation's electricity system.

The scenarios would also have a profound impact on the country's trade surplus, as the resource-poor nation would have to significantly increase imports of coal and LNG to power these new plants. The additional imports required under Scenario 1 would cost the country $17 billion in annual coal imports, representing 37 percent of Japan's current trade surplus. Alternatively, the LNG imports under Scenario 2 would cost $27 billion annually, representing 58 percent of Japan's current trade surplus."

http://theenergycollective.com/breakthroughinstitut/57452/updated-analysis-costs-canceling-japans-plans-nuclear-power?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=The+Energy+Collective+%28all+posts%29

[kristopher]

1. Typical fission industry hog's wallow - they are going to replace it with renewables.

Yes, they are going to beef up fossils to cover the emergency, but Japan is dedicated to meeting Kyoto Protocol goals and doing something about AGW, the intermediate and long term goals are to increase renewable deployment.

This antirenewable right wing rhetoric is getting very, very old. That isn't what this forum is supposed to be about.

[madokie]

11. To some here that is exactly what this forum is all about

so sad so many have their heads where the sun don't shine, can't see the forest for the trees. Not knowing if its time to wash or hang out the clothes.

[Wilms]

2. If only someone would figure out how to harness the wind, the sun, and the ocean currents.

Oh, well.

[bananas]

3. They aren't going to do that, so it's a pointless article. nt

[aquart]

4. None of these numbers are going to be valid when they start adding things up.

They're going to be buying food and having trouble selling their products. Nuclear energy is destroying them.

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

5. much better than the costs of keeping it.

[Warren Stupidity]

6. The bullshit is strong with this one....

[RC]

7. Must be a lot o' truth if the anti-nukers are being so negative.

Renewable (Wind, Solar) can't cut it for anymore than just helping because they are only part time and not robust enough. Coal and LNG are carbon intensive and must be reigned in. What's left?



Well?

[FreakinDJ]

9. Scientific fact doesn't apply to some of these people

Yes I would like to see more done legislatively to increase the use of wind and solar here in the United States - BUT what the Greeners argument FAILs to address is the rate at which electrical demand is increasing annually. 660 Megawatts per year in California alone. Guesstamates of 2 or 3 Terrawatts worldwide over the next 10 years. To these inconvenient truths the Greeners have no answers.

And NO - I do not want to see electricity become some thing only the Wealthy Elite can afford

[FranMonet]

20. LFTR Liquid Fluoride Thorium reactor

What's left is Thorium reactors. Its been estimated that we have about 80 years of uranium fuel if we keep using uranium at the current rate. We need to start promoting green nuclear plants instead of dangerous water uranium plants that we have now. check out the video to see what the benefits of thorium reactors are.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LeM-Dyuk6g

[txlibdem]

8. Japan definitely has enough renewable energy potential - and knows it needs energy storage

23 GW of geothermal
1,900 GW of wind
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/05/japans-geothermal-resources-gets-a-closer-look?cmpid=rss

Storage batteries will play a critical role in the popularization of renewable energy, including solar and wind power generation. In the case of solar power, generation is impossible at night or during bad weather. The same is true of wind power generation when the wind isn't blowing. In this way, there is considerable variation in the consistency of electric power generation from natural energy such as solar and wind power. But if the power generated can be stored in batteries, electricity can be supplied whenever it is needed.

Storage batteries hold the key not just to new forms of energy but also to the popularization of eco-cars, such as electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. These vehicles require storage cells such as lithium ion batteries, but drawbacks include the high price and heavy weight of the batteries. If low-priced, high-performing batteries could be developed, it would greatly help to popularize electric vehicles.

http://www.japanjournal.jp/tjje/show_art.php?INDyear=09&INDmon=11&artid=5474256c4a35e177a8c5153a2ddb6425

[RC]

10. The problem with storage batteries is that that they are large, expensive and need to be replaced

periodically, further driving the costs of power up. Also they don't scale up economically.

[LAGC]

12. Yeah, we definitely need to pump lots more money into R&D on storage battery technology.

If we truly expect to rely on renewable sources of energy on any level of scale, let alone as our primary source of power, they've got to be reliable 24/7/365. I'll be glad to see the day when renewables can truly compete with and replace traditional sources of energy without any serious government subsidies to make them competitive.

We really need some breakthroughs in this area.

[jpak]

14. Japan has already done that - (they scooped the US again) - and US utilities are buying them

to back-up wind power

today

[jpak]

13. Japan is producing and deploying large utility-scale NaS batteries at wind farms - today

and the cost of the on-going Fukushima nuclear DISASTER to the Japanese economy is??????

try again

yup

[LAGC]

15. Tell me more about these NaS batteries.

How economical are they on a really large scale?

I'm talking about a scale of powering entire cities at night in the dead of winter when everyone has their thermostats turned up.

Edit to add: I read the Wiki, but it still leaves many questions unanswered.

[txlibdem]

16. And just to fill in some detail: don't count the US out on those NaS batteries

EaglePicher began developing a battery for space applications in the mid-1980s that used sodium and sulfur components. Its model performed successfully on the Columbia space shuttle in 1997.

But by then, the focus for military and space batteries had shifted to lithium-ion models in the United States and the impetus for a sodium sulfur battery vanished in this country. EaglePicher mothballed its work.

Now EaglePicher is back in the game, working on a sodium sulfur battery with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), backed by a $7.2 million grant from the Energy Department's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). It was one of 37 such awards made in 2009 to foster clean energy breakthroughs. EaglePicher is funding the $1.8 million balance of the three-year project.

...snip...

PNNL scientist and project coordinator Gordon Graff says the laboratory's partnership with EaglePicher seeks to leapfrog NGK's design to perfect a more compact architecture that could significantly boost the battery's efficiency and performance while also greatly simplifying the manufacturing process.

...from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=molten-metal-batteries-return-renewable-energy-storage
Note: more info at that article, a recommended read.

It will be a bittersweet victory if we win this competition only at the cost of all those lives in Japan due to the third largest earthquake in history and then a killer tsunami. But it will be a victory for all of Mankind because it will help us do away with fossil fuel use.

[LAGC]

18. It looks like global production capacity was only 150MW in 2010.

http://electricitystorage.org/tech/technologies_technologies_nas.htm

But if they can figure a way to scale these things up to the TW capacities at reasonable cost, I'll drop my support for nuclear power like a hot potato and jump the fence to the "renewables only NOW" crowd. In a New York minute.

[txlibdem]

19. EaglePicher Selected to Showcase Technology at 2011 ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit

http://www.eaglepicher.com/images/stories/2011PressRelease/ep%20press%20release_arpa-e%20summit_final.pdf

[jpak]

17. One US utility (AEP) is buying 1000 MW of them (and old news here :)

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/09/american.html

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/environment/2007-07-04-sodium-battery_N.htm

Japan has deployed "hundreds of MW" NaS batteries and other start-ups are deploying utility-scale battery systems today in the US.

http://blog.climateandenergy.org/2011/04/15/a-mega-wind-farm-needs-lots-of-batteries/

FYI

:hi: