here's some calculations of GHG emissions reductions from ethanol use in terms of equivalent hybrid emissions reductions - compared to J.D. powers estimate of hybrid sales over the next decade.
http://domesticfuel.com/2011/03/22/grfa-highlights-biofuel-reduction-on-ghgs/
"In 2010, world ethanol production was 85.7 billion litres and is estimated to have reduced GHG emissions by 101 million tonnes – a GHG reduction of more than 276,000 tonnes per day.
• GHG emission reductions of 101 million tonnes represents the equivalent of 18.7 million cars being taken off the road"
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/31/electric-vehicle-sales-forecast-to-remain-low/
J.D. Power and Associates said Wednesday that combined global sales of hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles were expected to reach just 5.2 million vehicles in 2020, or only 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million autos expected to be sold that year.
The industry is expected to sell about 1 million electric and hybrid vehicles this year, a little more than 2 percent of global demand, the company said in its “Drive Green 2020” report.
Assuming that hybrids on average will achieve a 40% reduction of GHGs and assuming Ethanol production grows at 4% per year over the next 10 years the GHG emissions achieved using ethanol would be equivalent to removing 18.7 million cars from the road in 2010. This would be equivalent to 46.75 million hybrids replacing non-hybrid cars in 2010. These numbers would grow steadily (at 4% per yr) so that in 2020, while J.D. Powers is estimating there will be roughly 29 million hybrids on the road (assuming a constant rate of growth in sales) the GHG reductions from ethanol use would equal the GHG emissions reductions realized by having 69,000,000 hybrids (replacing non-hybrid cars) on the road (assuming 40% GHG reduction for hybrids on average).
Ethanol GHG
emissions hybrid GHG
reduction reduction avg 40%
equivalent cars Equiv Hybrids Hybrid sales cum Total
4% annual growth on road 740,000
2010 18,700,000 46,750,000 2010 1,000,000 1,740,000
19,448,000 48,620,000 2011 1,179,235 2,919,235
20,225,920 50,564,800 2012 1,390,595 4,309,830
21,034,957 52,587,392 2013 1,639,838 5,949,668
21,876,355 54,690,888 2014 1,933,755 7,883,423
22,751,409 56,878,523 2015 2,280,351 10,163,774
23,661,466 59,153,664 2016 2,689,069 12,852,843
24,607,924 61,519,811 2017 3,171,045 16,023,887
25,592,241 63,980,603 2018 3,739,406 19,763,294
26,615,931 66,539,827 2019 4,409,639 24,172,933
2020 27,680,568 69,201,420 2020 5,200,000 29,372,933