9/12 Ophelia 215 ESE Charleston Max Sustained 75 985 Mb - Will Move NW

[hatrack]

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/121202.shtml

And from the NHC Discussion Board:

THE LAST RECON FIX AT 06Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB... A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE... AND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 78 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THESE WINDS ARE MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MUCH AS THE AVERAGE REDUCTION WOULD DICTATE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE NOT
ANY MORE IMPRESSIVE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER FORECASTS THE
WEAKENING THAT IT HAD PREVIOUSLY AND IS NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
MINIMAL CHANGES IN INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
72 HOURS... UNTIL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OVER COOLER WATERS FARTHER NORTHEAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/120907.shtml?

[NNadir]

1. Help the hurricane decide what to do.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=105&topic_id=3989439&mesg_id=3989439

[hatrack]

2. ROFLMAO! Couldn't you have it "smite" San Francisco?

I mean, we all know about San Francisco, wink wink.

Or we could have the hurricane pose with a big wind-whipped banner reading "Heat Dissipated".

:evilgrin:

[NNadir]

3. Smite San Francisco. I don't know how I could have overlooked that.

[phantom power]

5. Hurricanes only respond to prayer groups. You need a prayer group.

[hatrack]

4. 0/12 2:00 PM EDT - Ophelia 175 ESE Charleston - Max Sustained 70, 989 Mb

Down to a tropical storm, but likely to strengthen again today or tomorrow.

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND A SLOW...
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

[hatrack]

6. 9/12 Ophelia 165 ESE Charleston Max Sustained 70 989 Mb (Crawling - 3 Mph)

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/121202.shtml

[hatrack]

7. 9/13 8:00 AM EDT - Ophelia 145 S. Wilmington Max Sust 70 989 Mb

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

EDIT

Putt putt putt . . . . slower than a Segway

[NNadir]

8. A weird deal this hurricane. We wouldn't mind some of the rain up here.

As was the case before hurricane Floyd, which left parts of New Jersey under water but watered the otherwise parched state, we need some rain here.

We're having something of a drought.

[phantom power]

9. Wouldn't you think "extreme" is worse than "exceptional" ?

[NNadir]

10. I would agree. I'm not sure it matters to Illinois though.

We're just "abnormally dry," and it is, in fact, very dry. There's some die back. I can't imagine what Illinois is going through. That's an agricultural area too.

[NNadir]

11. She's coming ashore, still lumbering.

The slow movement could be causing big problems for Eastern North Carolina; some places could see up to 15 inches of rain. Flooding a big possibility.

[hatrack]

12. 9/14 8:00 AM EDT Ophelia 60 S Wilmington Max Sustained 80 MPH 980 Mb

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO
69 MPH BEFORE THE LARGE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED OVER THE BUOY. IN
ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW SPREAD ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHEASTWARD TO
CAPE LOOKOUT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

EDIT

Slow and very, very rainy.

[hatrack]

13. 9/12 11AM Ophelia 40 SSE Wilmington Course NNE Max Sust. 80 980 Mb

EDIT

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
64 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/141442.shtml

[NNadir]

14. Finally she comes ashore.

"The eyewall of Hurricane Ophelia continues to hammer the southeasetern North Carolina coast with high winds and blinding rain this afternoon. Wrightsville Beach was pounded by wind gusts as high as 78 mph this morning. At 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Ophelia's broad eye (about 40 miles in diamater) was locatead about 30 miles east of Cape Fear. The slow NNE movement of Ophelia will result in heavy rainfall and flooding persisting in southeast North Carolina through this evening..."

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Although this is not a great hurricane like Katrina, it still has a huge potential to do damage by flooding.

North Carolina has been unusually dry, and as we (and those in North Carolina) learned with hurricane Floyd, before the ground is truly wet, there is quite a bit of run-off. When Floyd hit here, it was already downgraded to a tropical storm and some towns were under water for more than a week. Floyd broke a tremendous tree killing drought in this area.

Ophelia is not likely to be Katrina, but it's not going to be pretty either. What is worse is that the people in these areas will be subject to being ignored by a distracted public in an even more profound way.

[hatrack]

15. 9/14 2:00 PM EDT Ophelia Slightly Stronger 40 SE Wilmington 85 Max Sust.

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA REPORTING STATION AT WRIGHTVILLE
BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECORDED 6-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 MPH
WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO
78 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/141751.shtml

[hatrack]

16. 9/14 5:00 PM EDT Ophelia 40 E. Wilmington Max Sustained 85 979 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE
LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS TONIGHT... AND OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/142034.shtml?

[phantom power]

17. That thing is taking just about the worst possible path.

tracking right along the coastline.

[hatrack]

19. Yeah, it'll just keep feeding off the ocean

And it looks like a low-pressure front is heading that way, too - at least, that's what the weather map in the paper had today.

[hatrack]

18. 9/15 9:00 AM EDT Ophelia 30 SSW Hatteras Max Sust. 80 984 Mb

EDIT

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH
...AND A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

EDIT

Rain, rain, rain - NPR reporting a foot already in some parts of SE North Carolina. Blecch.