Status of photovoltaics tech pipeline

[skids]

With polysilicone shortages likely to continue, the old-style single crystal panel manufacturers will have a hard time continuing to cut prices on their products:

http://www.eet.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=170702430

So what's in the pipeline (and how far along) for photovoltaic technologies (or heat engines for concentrators) that use signifigantly less polysilicone?

Still in the lab:

Quantum dots: http://www.azonano.com/news.asp?newsID=1410
Dirty polysilicone: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20050910/fob6.asp
Rechargeable DSSCs: http://www.masshightech.com/displayarticledetail.asp?Art_ID=69488
DSSC "photocapacitor": http://www.primidi.com/2004/11/05.html

In product testing phase:

Small-scale concentrated PV: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.07/solar.html?pg=1&topic=solar&topic_set

Moving from lab to production:

Sliver cells: http://solar.anu.edu.au/pages/epilift.html
Thermal chimneys: http://www.enviromission.com.au/

In process of scaling up:

CIGS cells: http://www.daystartech.com/press_release.cfm/id/18768
Heat engines -- free-piston stirling: http://www.stirlingenergy.com/breaking_news.htm
Thin film amorphous: http://renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/market/business/viewstory?id=35454

Fallen by the wayside (AFAICT):

Heat engines -- thermoacoustic:
http://www.acs.psu.edu/users/sinclair/thermal/sundrive.html
http://www.lanl.gov/mst/engine/
Heat engines -- methane or steam turbine:
http://engnet.anu.edu.au/DEpeople/Keith.Lovegrove/STG/introduction2.html


...probably I missed some. But that's about the gist of it.

[Coastie for Truth]

1. Thin Film Amorphous Silicon N/T

[skids]

2. Thanks, added.

...how could I forget :-)

[rwork]

3. I keep hearing about

needing the break thru from $8.00 per watt down to $.50 per watt. Is anyone getting close? It seems I read about a Swedish Co., who had made a break thru. Any good news on the horizon on solar cells?Thanks

[jpak]

4. The current bottleneck in polysilicon supplies is temporary

Up until recently, the PV module industry has relied on rejected polySi from the integrated chip industry (PV cells don't require high quality PolySi).

Due to the exponential growth in PV cell manufacture in recent years, the demand for rejected polySi has outstripped supply.

The polySi industry is currently gearing up to specifically produce PV-grade Si to relieve the current shortfall.

The recent rise in the cost of PV modules is also the result of record demand for PV modules in Europe, Japan and the US.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/

Global expansion of PV module production facilities, however, is proceeding rapidly and will quickly make up for the current shortfall in module production.

When happens, the cost of PV modules will continue their ongoing historically decline.

The Japanese expect PV module costs to decline to <$1 per peak watt in 10-15 years.

[skids]

5. $1 is a target for several serious initiatives.

The CIGS folks have that as their target price, among others. I don't know what the target price for the small-scale-CVP stuff is but it will be signifigantly lower than current module costs. That stuff (the Sunflower 250) is interesting in that they are using plain old 1-sun rated solar cells and exposing them to somewhere between 15 and 25 suns worth of light. They say their lab tests show as long as the cells are cooled, they don't signifigantly degrade. Not to mention, even if the lifespan of the cell is reduced to half, the actual cells are small and only a small portion of the cost of the unit and can be replaced -- with whatever the latest tech is at the time, one would figure. I think that unit holds a lot of promise as Energy Innovations is really taking mass production concerns seriously.

It is due to finish tests/certification sometime in the next few months, and they say they are going to start production by the end of the year (the first target market is commercial sector flat-top buildings though.) It will be a very interesting endeavor to watch.

In the end it really depends on how much investment capital is raised and whether it is raised by the right people. New energy products and technologies are infamous for staying stuck on the lab bench because inventors generally don't make good businessmen, nor do established businessmen make good startup businessmen. There seems to be a dirth of people with the right stuff to pull off a successful venture.

(As an aside it's not a new phenomina. Back in 1821 when thermoelectrics were discovered they were about as efficient as their steam engine contemporaries. It would be interesting if some retro-sci-fi authors would turn the tables on "steam punk" and pursue that path-not-taken.)

http://www.thermoelectrics.com/introduction.htm