"The solar equipment business appears to be undergoing a shakeout, as three US solar firms have declared bankruptcy in the last few weeks. The most prominent of these was Solyndra, which was notable for its receipt of a $535 million federal loan guarantee. Joining Solyndra in bankruptcy filings were Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar, which had been ailing for more than a year, and former Intel spin-off SpectraWatt. These failures raise many questions, but one that I haven't seen discussed much is whether these companies' assets will merely be absorbed into other, more successful solar firms, or effectively sold for scrap. I suspect the outcome will be quite different from that of the ethanol bankruptcies that followed the financial crisis.
Observers of these firms might be tempted to look to the ethanol industry for a model of how their bankruptcies could turn out. After all, ethanol represents another green industry--or at least one with green aspirations--the growth of which has also been entirely predicated on government subsidies and mandates. And in a pattern similar to the current situation in the global solar industry, US ethanol producers had invested aggressively in capacity expansion ahead of actual demand and were faced with high costs that couldn't be recovered in the marketplace, particularly when growth slowed and the price of their product fell during the aftermath of the financial crisis. The shakeout that ensued saw a number of ethanol producers, including one the largest, VeraSun, enter bankruptcy with the intention of reorganizing, though most ended up in liquidation. With the exception of a few small facilities, the vast majority of the ethanol plants that were idled by these business failures were acquired and restarted by larger, better-capitalized entities such as refiner Valero. The buyers paid $0.30-.50 on the dollar for the assets, and most now have profitable ethanol businesses, after the legacy cost overhang was removed."
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