FWIW.

[skids]

[bemildred]

1. Well, that narrows it down. It's going West somewhere, probably. nt

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Only 11 weeks left in Hurricane Season

And we're halfway through the alphabet.

This week is the statistical peak of hurricane season, too. I am surprised that there are only two active tropical cyclones in our neck of the meteorological woods.

--p!

[phantom power]

4. Also, we're going to start seeing more tropical storms into December.

Waters are remaining warmer, longer. More or less what you'd expect from a "greenhouse."

[Dogmudgeon]

5. And here's a mind-blower

Imagine cyclonic tropical storms in the Arctic ocean, either hurricane sized or "tornadocane" sized. Yes, they have been observed before, though infrequently. At 80N, there is just enough Coriolis force to do the job. In the next few years, as the Arctic becomes much warmer -- even tropical -- in the summer, we can expect to see a lot of weird weather.

Autumn may also become a strange time in the far North. I strongly suspect that tornados will become common as the temperature "gradient" gets steeper over time. There are many Inuit and Chuckchi legends about great dancing storms, pillars of snow that come once every generation or so to punish the wicked and cleanse the world.

There is also considerable evidence -- some of it puzzling -- pointing to the Arctic experiencing temperature and climate extremes during changes to and from Ice Ages, and during Heinrich Events (and to a lesser extent, Dangaard-Oeschger Events). I'm not sure the Berezovka Mammoth qualifies as an indicator any more, but rapid alternation of tropical and tundral plant remains and fossils in the strata argue for quick and severe climate changes.

The Arctic may well become a world to itself as global warming progresses, eventually (possibly) forming a massive summer temperature inversion that breaks down violently in the mid-Fall. I will be paying close attention to the northern weather from Halloween to the New Year. For the last few years, it seems that there have been more early winter storms accompanying the dramatic seasonal temperature drops, but my sample is far too small and the storms far too "normal" for me to draw any reliable conclusions, and the Arctic weather experts have not been keen to draw hasty conclusions.

Eventually, this climatic instability will break down, probably following Broecker's model of a "climate flip-flop" (the scenario which was dramatized -- and exaggerated -- in The Day After Tomorrow). These days, I am leaning more toward thinking that we are entering a "real", or major, Ice Age, not simply a Little Ice Age caused by a temporary increase in carbon dioxide.

We could have gotten another 5000 years of warm weather out of this interstadial period. But we blew it.

--p!

[phantom power]

6. I miss having my mind blown by *good* news.

In our current climate regime, the ocean currents are responsible for transporting enormous amounts of heat energy from the equator to the poles. Now that those currents are starting to fail, that heat energy is going to "find" some other way to move. The only other way to go is the atmosphere. Nothing good is going to come of that.

[phantom power]

3. Let's hope it stays out of the Gulf.

Katrina did, indeed, siphon off about 2-3 degrees of surface temperature (pretty impressive), but those waters are still plenty warm enough to feed another major hurricane.

[skids]

7. Two now. And the second one may go gulf.

This one is now officially a depression.



...And this new one looks headed into the Gulf.