Climate Breakdown Could Make For A Wetter Sahara - Guardian

[hatrack]

Global warming could significantly increase rainfall in Saharan Africa within a few decades, potentially ending the severe droughts that have devastated the region, a new study suggests. The discovery was made by climate experts at the Royal Meteorological Institute in De Bilt, the Netherlands, who used a computer model to predict changes in the Sahel region - a wide belt stretching from the Atlantic to the horn of Africa that includes Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti.

Global warming will heat the land more than the sea, leading to changes in air pressure and weather. When the Netherlands team simulated this effect and combined it with warming caused by the expected rises in greenhouse gas emissions between 1980 and 2080, they found Sahel rainfall in the July to September period jumped 1-2mm a day. Some scientists suspected that global warming might increase rainfall in the region, causing the so-called greening of the Sahara, but these are the biggest predicted increases so far.

Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the scientists say the increased rainfall could "strongly reduce the probability of prolonged droughts". Reindert Haarsma, who led the research, said: "We were surprised that it was such a big rainfall signal. There is a lot of uncertainty in this kind of prediction but it is possible the Sahara region could benefit from climate change."

Sediments from the region suggest the semi-arid Sahel region, which borders the southern edge of the Sahara desert, was filled with lakes and lush vegetation as recently as 5,500 years ago. Countries in the Sahel have suffered unpredictable swings in rainfall, leading to severe drought between the 1970s and 1990s.

EDIT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1571446,00.html

[ret5hd]

1. now this would be ironic...

africa turned into a lush wonderland while north america turned into a desert...famine,drought,locust plagues, etc...africa turns into a world superpower, and gives north america about .001 percent gdp for relief.

[DBoon]

2. and Africans will regard North Americans as ignorant corrupt savages

karma.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. But they really don't know

I've heard more than once that desertification has been progressing over the last several million years, perhaps linked to the 100 kY long cycle of Ice Ages. This appears to be a long-term change for the Earth, and may be linked to the tectonic movement of the continents and associated mountain-building, which may cut off or establish new oceanic and weather patterns.

Much of it is still a mystery, however. I would not plan on the Sahara Desert becoming a tropical paradise again, though it is a nice thought.

--p!