Ice Extent may have reached the bottom

[OnlinePoker]

About a week earlier than normal and it's happened before that it goes up slightly before back down, but we are getting to the end of the season. We are a week behind 2007 so it's unlikely we'll drop below that level on extent even though we've passed it on area.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

[The Croquist]

1. I hope so but I wouldn't bet on it.

I've noticed that IJIS has a tendency to revise the most recent days number. I don't know what time they do it but I think it's earlier then now but it is a weekend. Their current numbers show only one day of increase and a slight one.

[The Croquist]

3. They didn't adjust yesterdays number of

4,527,813. 09/11's number is currently 4,519,375 (as of 06:22 AM 09/12). That shows a loss of 8,438
sq km. We are above 2007 by 160,625 sq km but below every other year going back to 2002. We are the 3rd lowest of 10 years. We're still above 2008 but 2008 had already hit a minimum by now and was on it's way up.

[OnlinePoker]

4. Now up to 4,537,188 at 10 AM PST. n/t

[The Croquist]

5. You are correct!

We now have small gains two consecutive days.

[The Croquist]

6. You may have called it OnlinePoker

Small increases three days in a row now.

[OnlinePoker]

7. NSIDC says it hasn't reached bottom yet

September 13, 2011
Arctic sea ice nears minimum extent
In the last few days, the decline in Arctic sea ice extent has slowed. NSIDC data show Arctic sea ice extent currently at the second-lowest levels in the satellite record.

Overview of conditions
On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.34 million square kilometers (1.68 million square miles). This was 110,000 square kilometers (42,500 square miles) above the 2007 value on the same date. The record minimum Arctic sea ice extent, recorded in 2007, was 4.17* million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles).

The rate of decline has flattened considerably the last few days: Arctic sea ice is likely near its minimum value for the year. However, weather patterns could still push the ice extent lower. NSIDC scientists will make an announcement when ice extent has stopped declining and has expanded for several days in a row, indicating that the Arctic sea ice has reached its lowest extent for the year and has begun freezing over. During the first week of October, after data are processed and analyzed for the month of September, NSIDC scientists will issue a more detailed analysis of this year's melt season and the state of the sea ice.

NSIDC's sea ice data come from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sensor on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite. This data record, using the NASA Team algorithm developed by scientists at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, is the longest time series of sea ice extent data, extending back to 1979.

Other sea ice data are available from other data providers, using different satellite sensors and sea ice algorithms. For example, data from the University of Bremen indicate that sea ice extent from their algorithm fell below the 2007 minimum. They employ an algorithm that uses high resolution information from the JAXA AMSR-E sensor on the NASA Aqua satellite. This resolution allows small ice and open water features to be detected that are not observed by other products. This year the ice cover is more dispersed than 2007 with many of these small open water areas within the ice pack. While the University of Bremen and other data may show slightly different numbers, all of the data agree that Arctic sea ice is continuing its long-term decline.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[jimlup]

2. While the media seems to obsess over extent it isn't that important a measure

Unfortunately ice volume has already set an all time record.

[NickB79]

8. Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low, According to One Measure

http://www.livescience.com/16023-arctic-sea-ice-record.html

I'm posting this mainly because this quote really stood out to me:

"The main message is not so much whether or not we set a record, but this year, without any noticeably unusual pattern of weather, we nearly broke a record, which only four years ago took a very unusual weather pattern plus a warming Arctic to achieve," Scambos said.