Southern Plains Farmers Prepare - Mentally & Financially - For Multiyear Drought - NYT

[hatrack]

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Many farmers across Texas, as well as parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico -- areas under extreme drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor -- are reporting the toughest season they've ever seen. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, one of the agencies that run the Drought Monitor, foresee continued drought through the end of the year (ClimateWire, Sept. 16). But climatologists say there is strong possibility that the drought, nearing 12 months in duration, may extend to become a multi-year event, spanning several growing seasons. This could have painful consequences to the agricultural sector, with few tools for relief.

The conditions today are a far cry from the climate only a year ago, when favorable weather fostered confidence in farmers eager to take advantage of rising commodity prices. La Niña -- the weather event marked by cooling Pacific temperatures that stimulate warming in the center of the country -- kick-started the drought last fall. La Niña persisted through the critical rain months of spring, said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center. By June, the duration of the drought had already broken records. By August, climate trackers were seeing the possibility for a disastrous prolongation due to the return of La Niña.

"All of a sudden, we saw 50-50 chance ," said Fuchs. "That is really not good news." The long-term forecast is grim. "Everything, scientifically, is leaning toward this being a multi-year event," said Fuchs. "We can call it a consensus of an increased chance that it's back," added Gary McManus, associate state climatologist for Oklahoma. "We can't say for certain that it will be La Niña effect, but the odds are in its favor."

Multi-year events are not rare in themselves, and are often a defining attribute of droughts. By nature, droughts -- especially severe ones -- are slow to ramp up and slow to recover, said Fuchs. That sets them apart from other natural disasters. But the timing of these back-to-back La Niña events has not been kind to the Southern Plains, said McManus.
"At least in Oklahoma, it's been quite some time since we've had two cycles of drought against two cycles of wheat," he said. So far, the drought has cost the state $2 billion in losses, according to the state Department of Agriculture.

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http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/09/21/21climatewire-farmers-in-the-southern-plains-brace-for-mul-25060.html

[Vogon_Glory]

1. This Drought Could Affect Cities, Too

This drought could affect some major Texas cities, too.

Here in Austin, one of the reservoirs providing Austin's water supply is down 25 feet and the heat goes on (And we're better off than some places!).

Wingnutz, "booster" bidnessmen and climate-change deniers aside, lack of water has proven notorious for emptying cities and towns of their population. I hope and pray that Austin has laid in enough water, but I worry that we may have a larger population than our water supplies can support under this sort of drought condition.