9/20 Drought Monitor - Stage 4 From Brownsville-Wichita, Shreveport-Albuquerque

[hatrack]

National Drought Summary -- September 20, 2011

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

A number of fronts moved across the country during this Drought Monitor week. They brought some much-needed rain to areas of the South, the Plains, the Midwest and into the Northeast. In the most severe areas of drought, the totals were not sufficient mitigate the impacts of the long-term lack of water.

The Southeast: Sporadic rains fell across the area but mostly stayed north of the drought areas. Southern Georgia saw a minor improvement in Extreme Drought conditions (D3) while southwestern Alabama saw degradation of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1). The Carolinas saw an increase in the extent of Moderate Drought (D1), mainly around the Charlotte area, along with a small increase in the extent of Severe Drought (D2) in the southwestern part of North Carolina. Conditions generally improved in Kentucky with this week’s rainfall.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Adequate rains fell this week the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With some areas still drying out from tropical storms, the merely adequate precipitation was welcome. No changes were made in the drought status in this area.

The South: Hit and miss precipitation fell across the south this week. Localized areas of improvement in Exceptional (D4) and Extreme (D3) Drought were experienced in Texas and Oklahoma. Conditions in Kansas improved slightly in the east and degraded in the central and western part of the state. The area is still in the midst of a record-setting or near record-setting drought. In Texas, this year has been characterized and the worst 1-year drought on record by the State Climatologist. Recent estimates of state-wide agricultural impact from drought and wildfires is now at $5.4 billion. In Texas, 98% of the Pasture and Range land is considered to be in Poor or Very Poor condition. In Oklahoma, the total is 94%. New Mexico follows a close third at 92%.

The Plains and Midwest: Conditions in the Northern Plains deteriorated some this week while in the Midwest, conditions improved slightly. Minnesota saw expansion of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the southern part of the state while Severe Drought (D2) expanded in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. South Dakota likewise saw expansion of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the east but a welcome contraction of Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the Black Hills in the southwestern part of the state. Abnormal Dryness (D0) was likewise reduced in Nebraska due to ample precipitation. Additional beneficial precipitation fell throughout southern Illinois and Indiana alleviating some Severe (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) there.

The West: The West generally continued to benefit from some above-normal rainfall. In northern and central Colorado beneficial rains improved conditions in the Extreme (D3), Severe (D2), and Moderate (D1) drought areas as well as the Abnormal Dryness (D0). In New Mexico, conditions in the northwest part of the state improved while in Arizona, near-record rainfall around Tucson led to improvements in Extreme Drought (D3) in that area. The Abnormal Dryness (D0) also improved in southern Nevada.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained unchanged Hawaii and Puerto Rico this week. In Alaska, the abnormal dryness (D0) was removed based largely on precipitation in the south and normal or above streamflow throughout most of the state.

Looking Ahead: During the September 21 – September 26, 2011 time period, there is an enhanced probability of precipitation extending along the East Coast and into the Ohio Valley. Most of the interior of the country and the West are expected to see a suppressed chance of precipitation. Temperatures are generally forecast to be normal to above normal throughout the Plains and throughout the entire West, with the exception of isolated West coastal locations. Below-normal temperatures are generally expected from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic and down through the Southeast.

For the ensuing 5 days (September 27 - October 1, 2011), the odds favor normal to cooler-than-normal conditions over much of the Southeast, South, and Mid-Atlantic. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected from the Upper Midwest, through the High Plains and throughout the West. The odds of above-normal precipitation are limited to the extreme Southeast, the Atlantic Seaboard into southern New England, and the Northwest. In Alaska, the odds favor normal to below-normal precipitation across the western part of the state and the Aleutian Islands. Above-normal precipitation is also expected in the Southeast part of the state. Below–normal temperatures are expected throughout the western and central part of the state. The southeast portion of the state is expecting above-normal temperatures.

Author: Michael Brewer, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Dryness Categories

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[AnneD]

1. One day of rain per month...

is not enough. It is desperate here in Texas. You just cannot imagine the devastation to our forests. And this is the type of devastating drought that will continue to have an effect for at least a decade out.