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The commission's objectives are twofold: to figure out why the Fraser's sockeye run has been tanking since the early 1990s; and to make recommendations about how Fraser sockeye should be sustainably managed by Canada's Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). No one really believes that Justice Cohen will come up with an explanation for the decline. Tony Farrell, a fish physiologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, says that asking lawyers to work out why the Fraser sockeye is waning is incongruous. "Is that what you'd ask lawyers to look at? I wouldn't," he says.
But scientists hope that the commission's final recommendations, due in June 2012, will prompt reform of the DFO, which they say is failing woefully in its remit to protect Canada's fish. The DFO has a dual mandate to promote the aquaculture industry and to protect wild fish and their habitats — objectives that can be at odds. "I've lost faith that DFO can make a decision that is not politically based," says Rick Taylor, a zoologist at the University of British Columbia. "There are so many conflicts within that structure. That's why people don't trust them."
Fish fight
Although the number of returning sockeye has dropped dramatically from the early 1990s, the falling productivity of the population — how many offspring per spawning adult survive to spawn themselves – is a greater worry, declining from more than five offspring per spawning adult to less than one over the past 20 years. Possible culprits include marine predation, climate change, ocean contaminants, harmful algae, disease, ocean productivity and fish farms, which are controversially associated with a reduction in wild salmon survival. "I don't frankly have much hope that
will be able to sort this out," says Lawrence Dill, a behavioural ecologist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. "I don't think there is a single cause."
The commission could have more impact on the management of the fishery. "The conclusion of the Cohen Commission will have far greater weight than any other inquiry dealing with our oceans in my memory," says Jeff Hutchings, a fish conservation biologist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
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http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110928/full/news.2011.563.html